Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

 

Some nice improvements are now showing in the models which is good news.   

Edited June 27, 2017 by 40*C

[northwestsnow]

Much better 12zs today! Fingers crossed for a quick return to settled weather, that would be welcome.( im still warey though)..:-)

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, draztik said:

In complete contrast to yesterday evening's output from the same model - showing the models are in disarray, Ensembles best guidance - and even those are proving to be somewhat erratic (beyond the usual); nothing guaranteed - yet we are headed back to heatwave conditions...if you listen to some of you.

 

Who has said anything about a heatwave?!

If what ECM shows tonight then a return to some summer warmth will be on the cards with some parts in the mid to maybe upper 20s

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Who has said anything about a heatwave?!

If what ECM shows tonight then a return to some summer warmth will be on the cards with some parts in the mid to maybe upper 20s

Nobody. Since the ECM doesn't show temperature values like the GFS and GEM does, then the ill-informed could easily misconstrue what was being said. Maybe post simpler, clearer information. Not pointing to you personally, its more of a generalisation.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Much better 12zs today! Fingers crossed for a quick return to settled weather, that would be welcome.( im still warey though)..:-)

Absolutely right to be cautious but there are signs now, strengthened by the Ecm / Ukmo 12z that we could see a return of good summer weather next week and perfectly timed for Wimbledon..fingers crossed!

Edited June 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

On 25/06/2017 at 11:36, bluearmy said:

Intrigued by the developing Azores ridging in a weeks time. Transient or not ?? The eps ens mean says transient but the extended mean output has looked a bit unconvincing recently with lower height anomalies and higher pressure anomolies existing at the same time period in the 11/15 day timeframe. Beyond better the further se and worse the further nw you are, I wouldn't be calling early July just yet with any confidence. 

48 hours later and the momentum is just with the higher slp anomolies winning the battle although a fair way from calling the rise in heights sustained 

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, draztik said:

In complete contrast to yesterday evening's output from the same model - showing the models are in disarray, Ensembles best guidance - and even those are proving to be somewhat erratic (beyond the usual); nothing guaranteed - yet we are headed back to heatwave conditions...if you listen to some of you.

You are not wrong there. A glance at the charts for 12z Wednesday

[mb018538]

Things can change quickly....the gfs ensembles don't fancy this outcome at all, so more runs needed as usual!

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Things can change quickly....the gfs ensembles don't fancy this outcome at all, so more runs needed as usual!

Ensembles are fickle, hopefully the Euro models continue to firm up on a return of summer.

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Who has said anything about a heatwave?!

If what ECM shows tonight then a return to some summer warmth will be on the cards with some parts in the mid to maybe upper 20s

Yes I don't hear anyone talking about a heatwave on here. We do have a tentatively growing sign of a more settled interlude as we head into July, particularly for the south and east, as reflected in the GEFS 12z ensembles.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Yes I don't hear anyone talking about a heatwave on here. We do have a tentatively growing sign of a more settled interlude as we head into July, particularly for the south and east, as reflected in the GEFS 12z ensembles.

Exactly, nobody has used the word heatwave although the Ecm 12z is perhaps heading towards one later in the run..let us pray

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Exactly, nobody has used the word heatwave although the Ecm 12z is perhaps heading towards one later in the run..let us pray

Yes ECM's 12z is encouraging. As it's only the day 10 chart at the moment I'll take it with a pinch of salt. It is clear to see the picture is much more optimistic tonight though. Hoorah!

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

32 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Absolutely right to be cautious but there are signs now, strengthened by the Ecm / Ukmo 12z that we could see a return of good summer weather next week and perfectly timed for Wimbledon..fingers crossed!

Praying that the models are correct with the good weather returning since I'll be at Wimbledon the first three days! Would be great to see settled weather since I wasn't part of that heatwave the other week. 

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, samadamsuk said:

I think that verificatiin stats would certainly prove the case - are there any out there? Samos.

Unfortunately, with no 'GLAAM-adjusted' model output or anything like that, there isn't really any means of doing verification stats.

Best that can be done is a qualitative assessment of outlooks constructed using the theory, though I've not come across any freely available that are known to be done that way on anything less than a monthly basis.

- - - - - - -

Looking at the ECM 12z, it completes the set when it comes to the models bifurcating the jet flow around a UK-centred ridge. A classic setup for fine summer weather here and also of one of those situations where fine details regarding a trough in the mid-Atlantic can open doors where the ensembles struggled to see them; two days ago there was 10% support from  GEFS for the bifurcated jet scenario. This evening it looks be around 50, maybe 55%.

So going by the operational runs it appears that prerequisite has been met, but the ensemble spread reminds us that complications could still arise that either change the jet configuration (which would really not help us at all) or add an extra disturbance in the flow that interrupts the settled trend early-mid week (this would be irritating but better than the first possibility).

Longer-term, GEFS remain heavily influenced by the low-GLAAM bias as evidenced in a majority vote for a La-Nina like pattern with the Azores High a little west of us and a trough over or just east of us. Fair to say, this may undergo substantial modification nearer the time.

 

Oh and a massive kudos to GP for spotting next week's potential before anyone else (yes, even me, who seems to have been searching since the hot spell ended!);

June 19th + 15 days = 4th July, and 'toward' that date covers the very period in which things look to be coming together. So this could be an exceptionally good call but of course we can't be sure of that just yet!

[Mark wheeler]

On 23/06/2017 at 17:41, Tamara said:

The V200 profile for MJO related tropical convection suggests that we may to wait till the second week or so of July for real improvement. Should it occur, I would treat any NWP operational output over the coming short and medium term period that shows the Azores ridge moving back in any meaningful way as a false dawn

Hi Tamara and others , I remembered this post from a few days ago when the output came out this evening , I am indeed a novice at this model reading to the likes of your good self, knocker and John Holmes to name a couple of others . Do you believe this to be a false dawn as you describe or has things changed to allow this change . Many Thanks in advance .

[knocker]

The EPS 6-10 anomaly this evening still has the upper low N. Canada/Greenland but the trough is orientated east towards the Scandinavian trough and thus although still an upper westerly flow across the Atlantic no significant troughing or negative anomalies. This suggests less actively unsettled weather over the UK as the upper flow and jet weakens and what there is more inclined towards the north as the high pressure nudges north influencing the south with the temps nudging slightly above average. Up to the Saturday anyway. So at this stage most of week would look okay for Wimbledon but of course this can change.

As we move into the 10-15 period this remains much the same with a suggestion of slight height rises to the south west.

Edited June 27, 2017 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi Folks , looks like we have a ridge building post weekend to early next week then it declines from there on models seem very vague. At Day 10 gfs shows bland  lifeless synoptics , but ecm is the sex on legs tonight. thunderstorm potentialIts day ten so I wont get too excited But 1975 comes up as an equal to 2017 so far with frequent very warm spells and very dry overall.!!!

[damianslaw]

Won't be viewing the models or be on the forum over the coming 10 days or so, with that, its a more pleasing run of 12z models today compared to recent runs, if you are after a return to more settled 'summery' conditions. Both GFS and ECM showing the trough becoming squeezed out by a ridge, ECM then goes on to show the ridge holding firm against the atlantic trough with the signal for amplification and possible plume development, GFS less keen, the ridge looks fairly undeveloped, with a more typical westerly interlude dominating. Ensembles don't show any clear picture other than a more settled period more generally as we enter next week with signal for height rises to the south influencing southern parts at least.

My own take, is we will see things calm down again next week, with ridge development to the south becoming more influential, bringing back dry sunny warm conditions, especially in the south. No confidence what happens thereafter, ridge could quickly collapse, or it could build NE and stretch SW, like an elastic band then snap.. I'm not seeing a robust ridge, the story of the summer I think, weak ridges propped up by amplified trough, but then snap.. shortlived very warm/hot spells interspersed with more average wetter interludes..

[DTHFCJ]

just watched the bbc's take on next week and they see no return to higher pressure with the jet still to the south of us and remaining unsettled everywhere i just hope the models are on to something this evening

 

looking average(ish) on these too,

Edited June 27, 2017 by DTHFCJ

[knocker]

33 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EPS 6-10 anomaly this evening still has the upper low N. Canada/Greenland but the trough is orientated east towards the Scandinavian trough and thus although still an upper westerly flow across the Atlantic no significant troughing or negative anomalies. This suggests less actively unsettled weather over the UK as the upper flow and jet weakens and what there is more inclined towards the north as the high pressure nudges north influencing the south with the temps nudging slightly above average. Up to the Saturday anyway. So at this stage most of week would look okay for Wimbledon but of course this can change.

As we move into the 10-15 period this remains much the same with a suggestion of slight height rises to the south west.

[Summer Sun]

Not a bad ENS from ECM ok it's not going for a full on high yet but certainly no repeat of this weeks washout

[Scorcher]

40 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

just watched the bbc's take on next week and they see no return to higher pressure with the jet still to the south of us and remaining unsettled everywhere i just hope the models are on to something this evening

The BBC said the same thing before the last hot spell at about this same time scale, I recall.

[ANYWEATHER]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The BBC said the same thing before the last hot spell at about this same time scale, I recall.

[DTHFCJ]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The BBC said the same thing before the last hot spell at about this same time scale, I recall.

Trust me I hope your right,loved every sweaty minute of the last heatwave

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like the 18z wants to bring back the heat for a short time at the end of next week