Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Good evening all:).

    A little late but here is a new thread for the start of the Summer Quarter.

    The 12z models all show a similar theme during the next week or so with a move towards a rather changeable south westerly pattern.

    A few snapshots of the 12z ECM for the next week shows an ongoing presence of low pressure to the north and west with occasional ridging further south from a somewhat suppressed Azores high.

    ECM1-48.GIF?01-0ECM1-96.GIF?01-0ECM1-144.GIF?01-0

    so as often the case in this pattern the warmest and brightest conditions will favour locations further south and east.Some showers or rain likely for many of us at times.

    OK then please continue discussions below.

     

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening all ,looks like we are heading for an unsettled spell and feeling chilly too in any cloudy rainy spells. But on the other hand ,if the lows to our west stall ,then we will scope up some heat and plumes from the south so potential thunderstorm activity as emphasised from the ecm and gfs at T+144:yahoo:

    ecmt850.144.png

    h850t850eu-1.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Evening all ,looks like we are heading for an unsettled spell and feeling chilly too in any cloudy rainy spells. But on the other hand ,if the lows to our west stall ,then we will scope up some heat and plumes from the south so potential thunderstorm activity as emphasised from the ecm and gfs at T+144:yahoo:

    ecmt850.144.png

    h850t850eu-1.png

    Yep, good to see agreement from the GFS and ECM 12z on the plume potential later next week :D

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    As far as I see it, ECM and GFS are in the process one again of correcting downward a kick in the jet stream and so adjusting the mean ridge position west toward the UK and W. Europe having initially placed it almost in W. Asia.

    For some reason whatever causes these errors in those two models seems to affect GEM less.

    Things when get very interesting as an MJO pulse combines with an unusually 'wiggly jet' as part of a wavenumber-5 pattern that typically produces extremes of weather toward the western extent of ridges - which is where we might well be.

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Now we're talking and summer wants to get down to business on the latest GFS 18z.  HP rising mid-June, if only that trough on the west could nudge out the way a little and we could be in 2006 territory.  Shame this is just an outlier

     

     

     

    CHART 2.png

    npsh500.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    So we're not writing June off any more then? I bet we'll be well above average again before mid month. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    20 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    So we're not writing June off any more then? I bet we'll be well above average again before mid month. 

    Just wait, we'll be back to the wrist-slashing soon enough!

    Edited by cheese
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hot and humid for the south-east today with max temp around 27c 81f with hazy sunshine but watch out because there will be some big thunderstorms breaking out during this afternoon and rumbling on into this evening with torrential downpours and hail..the weekend looks fresher but still warm with sunny spells and a few heavy showers.:)

    DBOdvG1XYAA6h-A (1).jpg

    DBSSabKXcAAcrDx.jpg

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

    Euro does not suggest an overly cold pattern but low pressure firmly in charge..

     

    Edited by summer blizzard
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO and ECM are a bit different this morning at t144

    UKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.2e36a05da18312289e8e43b2bd47a14e.pngECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.d680da881918d660325c565c9b8d4211.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO and ECM are a bit different this morning at t144

    UKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.2e36a05da18312289e8e43b2bd47a14e.pngECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.d680da881918d660325c565c9b8d4211.png

    Yes Summer Sun, the difference still there out to 168t as shown on the extended N. Atlantic chart from the UKMO. A continental drift shown on that one. The same time chart from ECM shows a maritime flow for most. Take your pick, I know which one I prefer !

    C

    ukm2.2017060900.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
    11 hours ago, Singularity said:

    As far as I see it, ECM and GFS are in the process one again of correcting downward a kick in the jet stream and so adjusting the mean ridge position west toward the UK and W. Europe having initially placed it almost in W. Asia.

    For some reason whatever causes these errors in those two models seems to affect GEM less.

    Things when get very interesting as an MJO pulse combines with an unusually 'wiggly jet' as part of a wavenumber-5 pattern that typically produces extremes of weather toward the western extent of ridges - which is where we might well be.

    Looking at the morning output, the westward correction takes the ridge more into the mid-Atlantic (the fabled Scenario B). Fans of heat wanted the ridge just to the east of the British Isles (Scenario A) being propped up from the mid-Atlantic trough. That has happened but the trough has now started to move eastward again dragging everything along with it and the eastward correction does us no favours leaving us under the trough.

    FWIW (and that's not much), I do think the next correction will see us benefitting from the ridge but that may be late June/early July and that's often an optimum time for high temperatures if the synoptics are right and we can import some hot air from points south.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
    12 hours ago, Singularity said:

    As far as I see it, ECM and GFS are in the process one again of correcting downward a kick in the jet stream and so adjusting the mean ridge position west toward the UK and W. Europe having initially placed it almost in W. Asia.

    For some reason whatever causes these errors in those two models seems to affect GEM less.

    Things when get very interesting as an MJO pulse combines with an unusually 'wiggly jet' as part of a wavenumber-5 pattern that typically produces extremes of weather toward the western extent of ridges - which is where we might well be.

    Good Morning Singularity,

    I read your posting above with interest, and not being that knowledgeable on the weather would be grateful if you could advise what you mean by extremes of weather. do you mean extreme heat, extreme thunderstorms, extreme drought or strong winds with conveyor belts of rain across the country?

    Many thanks

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    2 hours ago, carinthian said:

    Yes Summer Sun, the difference still there out to 168t as shown on the extended N. Atlantic chart from the UKMO. A continental drift shown on that one. The same time chart from ECM shows a maritime flow for most. Take your pick, I know which one I prefer !

    C

    ukm2.2017060900.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

    The latest UKMO update seems reasonably confident that the end of next week to turn warm for most and even very warm for the Southeast with the Northwest getting the more unsettled /rainy conditions, but even here temps well up to average.

     C

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    1 hour ago, claret047 said:

    Good Morning Singularity,

    I read your posting above with interest, and not being that knowledgeable on the weather would be grateful if you could advise what you mean by extremes of weather. do you mean extreme heat, extreme thunderstorms, extreme drought or strong winds with conveyor belts of rain across the country?

    Many thanks

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    Hello :)

    I was deliberately unspecific there; extreme heat, thunderstorms/excessive rainfall and strong winds are all possible outcomes with such a setup. Drought would however require the pattern to adjust further west than looks likely at this time and even then it would take many weeks of persistently dry, often hot weather to produce one.

    This morning I am shocked at the sheer strength of the low being modelled to cross the Atlantic days 8-10. 

    h850t850eu.png ecmt850.216.png

    This currently looks to be an over 2-sigma event i.e. more than two standard deviations outside of the 'norm' i.e. very unusual indeed.

    Such large and powerful storms have the ability to shift the longwave pattern against the backgroud signals which is worrying as that typically means eastward of what would otherwise occur. The remnants of the B-name Atlantic tropical cyclone in Aug 2014 had this effect and led to a cool showery month instead of a warm, sometimes thundery one as was looking likely to be the case otherwise.

    I sincerely hope the packet of energy that fuels this major storm does not manage to journey across so smoothly and instead gets involved with some developments along the way that lower the remaining potential energy for LP development.

    ukgust.png

    Ireland's tree population would not fare too well if this came to pass :shok: - good thing it's still over a week away with plenty of time for changes!

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    The latest UKMO update seems reasonably confident that the end of next week to turn warm for most and even very warm for the Southeast with the Northwest getting the more unsettled /rainy conditions, but even here temps well up to average.

     C

    Following my post just how - this is encouraging from UKMO as the big trough off the U.S. is clearly slower with a more amplified jet stream ahead of it.

    UKMO was second only to GEM in spotting the more settled outcome for last week.

    GEM is now rather explosive-looking for Thu though, and barely gets the next Euro ridge set up before breaking it down:

     159_mslp850.png?cb=907 207_mslp850.png?cb=907 231_mslp850.png?cb=907

    ...but again, this is all far enough out in time for much adjustment to potentially occur :) 

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    As far as temperatures are concerned, no complaints from me as the seasonal ( longer range ) models, GloSea5 etc must be indicating above average to very warm and even hot at times, especially further south so I'm happy with the latest update.:)

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    It now looks like the formation of heat low over Paris Basin. This will move into the North Sea ahead of the cold front pushing into Central Eastern England now. As I mentioned on Tuesday a delay of this clearance to fresher air mass will now be delayed until later tomorrow in the SE . The cyclostomous  development ( flabby low ) will open the isobars across Eastern and Central areas of the England with some thundery rain down East Coastal Regions for a while longer before clearance to maritime airmass takes over. Looking to Monday a storm brewing heralding a windy start to next week before pressure rises again in the south bring warmth to end the week. Good weather viewing to be had . A bit for everyone.

     C

    fr.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    2 hours ago, carinthian said:

    It now looks like the formation of heat low over Paris Basin. This will move into the North Sea ahead of the cold front pushing into Central Eastern England now. As I mentioned on Tuesday a delay of this clearance to fresher air mass will now be delayed until later tomorrow in the SE . The cyclostomous  development ( flabby low ) will open the isobars across Eastern and Central areas of the England with some thundery rain down East Coastal Regions for a while longer before clearance to maritime airmass takes over. Looking to Monday a storm brewing heralding a windy start to next week before pressure rises again in the south bring warmth to end the week. Good weather viewing to be had . A bit for everyone.

     C

    fr.gif

    Its just great now watching how the synopitcs are evolving from hour to hour. Our so called flabby low ( cyclostomous formation ) seems to be centred now over the Thames Estuary. Note how this has the effect of creating a slacking of the pressure gradient over the British Isles and retaining some potential energy in the atmosphere, especially SE parts. Wish I could have access to the mid-day East Sussex sounding  to view any potential convectional energy. Still think the SE will stay in the warmth for much of tomorrow  with added rain threat for Eastern coastal regions. Cooler maritime air mass now being deflected into NW France with warmth advecting into SE Britain as I type.

    C

    uk.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
    3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    As far as temperatures are concerned, no complaints from me as the seasonal ( longer range ) models, GloSea5 etc must be indicating above average to very warm and even hot at times, especially further south so I'm happy with the latest update.:)

    I think above average temperatures alone are not enough for most heat summer lovers though.

    They want it to be dry too otherwise not much chance of staying dry doing outdoor activities!:cc_confused:

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.0dc733ff5ab9676fa050dac0510d50d3.pngscream__1__400x400.thumb.jpg.9ec7d6d53ed6c96d83dfc3e4b5e08497.jpg

    Later next week UKMO shows the chance of some warm air drifting up from mainland Europe

    ECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.45aab23abd1b22eba3b01841c5e4831e.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.0dc733ff5ab9676fa050dac0510d50d3.pngscream__1__400x400.thumb.jpg.9ec7d6d53ed6c96d83dfc3e4b5e08497.jpg

    Later next week UKMO shows the chance of some warm air drifting up from mainland Europe

    ECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.45aab23abd1b22eba3b01841c5e4831e.png

    GFS 12z once again toying with the idea of stalling low pressure to the SW temporarily drawing up some hot and humid air for southern and eastern areas. Could be a recurring theme for the first part of this summer?

    12_192_mslp850.png?cb=79

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Looks like into next weekend things may get a bit wild! Finer details to come, but the recurring theme of a very deep low spinning up is one worth watching for sure.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds
    3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    The Gfs 6z shows the uk weather changing gear next week, becoming more atlantic driven, especially for the n / w with the s / se having occasional fine and warmer spells but really it looks like an increasingly changeable / unsettled few weeks ahead.:)

    06_84_mslp500.png

    06_156_mslp500.png

    06_204_mslp500.png

    06_228_mslp500.png

    06_252_mslp500.png

    06_276_mslp500.png

    06_300_mslp500.png

     

    06_324_mslp500.png

    shame these charts  are for the first month of the summer aint it?? seems always the case.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...