Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Another Kent clipper]

1 hour ago, TJS1998Tom said:

BBC Weather still suggesting Thunderstorms Monday night on the Week Ahead, but this time it's looks like it's moving more North East

Huh. After I'd already planned a trip to the south coast Monday into Tuesday for my birthday.  A France export and a card would be nice to go along with it

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 24 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 25 Jun 2017

ISSUED 08:28 UTC Sat 24 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

As the upper vortex drifts across Shetland on Saturday night, cold air aloft over relatively warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates, bringing the threat of some isolated / sporadic lightning with any heavy showers that develop.

Farther south, a few heavy tropical showers will be possible within the SMZ across East Anglia and SE England later in the afternoon - but convective depth considered too shallow for lightning.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-24

[Dangerous55019]

So I've just finished giving the car a 'quick wash' and looked up to see some rather nice convective cloudscapes bubbling up on the other side of the mountains... Clearly the weather gods are pleased with my car cleaning actions today. 

... I think I might just fire up the barbecue after... Just to give things a helping hand you understand. 

[Frosty hollows]

The sky has produced some lovely convection today and some ominous looking clouds. Producing some showers to the south of the M4 corridor

[Norfolk Sheep]

On 2017-6-22 at 21:19, Supacell said:

It's still stifling here, so not sure the cold from has passed through yet. It's unlikely to produce anything though.

They do have some great storms here. The 9th June 2014 supercell was an absolute beast and it came right over Holland, Belgium and NW Germany. I'd love to witness something like that.

I had the pleasure of a similar storm in Holland in August 2015. Six hours and stretched from France to Germany! And that was after July had delivered twice locally - I was indeed a happy bunny 

[Another Kent clipper]

6 hours ago, Frosty hollows said:

The sky has produced some lovely convection today and some ominous looking clouds. Producing some showers to the south of the M4 corridor

I'll be in chipping norton tomorrow to start my three day roadtrip.  I hope the south has some goodies for me

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

For those who are up, an absolute stonker going on just North of Milan! https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/lombardia/bergamo/piazzatorre.html

[Frosty hollows]

6 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

For those who are up, an absolute stonker going on just North of Milan! https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/lombardia/bergamo/piazzatorre.html

Just posted this in European storm thread

[Greeny]

9 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

For those who are up, an absolute stonker going on just North of Milan! https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/lombardia/bergamo/piazzatorre.html

I have relatives that live there, I wonder what they made of it!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 hours ago, Frosty hollows said:

Just posted this in European storm thread

My word! We often wish for extreme events here, but there's a fine line up there between fun and scary. Sometimes have to spare a thought of the consequences that arise with these events. Monstrous updrafts would've been present there to hold hail of that calibre up in the air!! The Alps are the place to be if you want some mothers of all storms. 

[samadamsuk]

Hey all. Last year I spent 2 weeks at lake Garda - arrived in a heatwave that then turned thundery, but missed a direct hit mostly. One of the last days, cape looked reasonably but everything bubbling up was getting sheared off - then I was treated to a supercell over the N of the lake, that threw out a gust front - must have been 60mph sustained - all hell let loose with the lakeside resturants! Awesome to see - things do get serious over there though! Samos

[Supacell]

Is it just me or have inland thunderstorms been particularly rare so far this season? I know the south coast and a short way inland had some fun at the end of May and places on the far east coast during the last week, but there has been very little in the Midlands.With little interest next week many parts of the Midlands could get to July without a storm!

Edited June 25, 2017 by Supacell

[Summer Sun]

On 23/06/2017 at 21:33, TJS1998Tom said:

BBC Weather still suggesting Thunderstorms Monday night on the Week Ahead, but this time it's looks like it's moving more North East

Looks like it will be late Tuesday and into Wednesday now that the thunderstorms will move up from France

[wimblettben]

Looks like we may have a chance at something thundery this coming Tuesday, Wednesday although my worry is that it will be too far east of here.

Hoping we get something as was disappointed that we didn't get anything after the cool down from the heatwave.

[Eye to the sky]

1 hour ago, Supacell said:

Is it just me or have inland thunderstorms been particularly rare so far this season? I know the south coast and a short way inland had some fun at the end of May and places on the far east coast during the last week, but there has been very little in the Midlands.With little interest next week many parts of the Midlands could get to July without a storm!

I feel your pain Supacell,storms around here have declined in spectacular fashion  in the last 15 years or so.So far this year I have seen one solitary flash of lightning in Maplethorpe last Wednesday evening!!.The last few years here around Derby have been particularly bad.

[TJS1998Tom]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like it will be late Tuesday and into Wednesday now that the thunderstorms will move up from France

Yeah, it's something which keeps getting changed around now, I have a feeling it'll mainly be the South which gets them again though : P Then just rain for mostly everyone else

[TJS1998Tom]

15 minutes ago, Eye to the sky said:

I feel your pain Supacell,storms around here have declined in spectacular fashion  in the last 15 years or so.So far this year I have seen one solitary flash of lightning in Maplethorpe last Wednesday evening!!.The last few years here around Derby have been particularly bad.

The storm early July 2015 here in Lincolnshire was the best, but haven't seen one anywhere near close to that. I'm running out of hope lol

[Windblade]

Learnt to take things with a pinch of salt this far out, and rely more on information closer to the time. As always though I am quietly hoping.  

[Supacell]

2 hours ago, Eye to the sky said:

I feel your pain Supacell,storms around here have declined in spectacular fashion  in the last 15 years or so.So far this year I have seen one solitary flash of lightning in Maplethorpe last Wednesday evening!!.The last few years here around Derby have been particularly bad.

The last decent storm I saw over Derby was overnight on the 3rd/4th July 2015, although there was a brief storm during the afternoon of the 22nd August 2015. However, I have not yet had a year whereby I have not even had the opportunity to chase storms locally (within 100 miles). We do have all of July, August and September to go yet so fingers crossed things turn around.

As for the middle of this week, the BBC are continuing to talk about storms moving up from France. However a word of caution, the charts I am seeing from both the GFS and the NMM look unlikely for much thundery activity. The likely scenario, if it doesn't miss the UK entirely, is that some thunderstorms will spread up towards the channel during Tuesday and spread north as an area of heavy rain with an ever decreasing element of thunder and lightning during the night. I would like to see a better draw of the warm plume of air from the south to enable thundery weather away from the far south east. If the area of low pressure moving across from the west can stall, drawing up southerly winds for a time, then this may just happen.

[A.J]

11 minutes ago, Supacell said:

The last decent storm I saw over Derby was overnight on the 3rd/4th July 2015, although there was a brief storm during the afternoon of the 22nd August 2015. However, I have not yet had a year whereby I have not even had the opportunity to chase storms locally (within 100 miles). We do have all of July, August and September to go yet so fingers crossed things turn around.

As for the middle of this week, the BBC are continuing to talk about storms moving up from France. However a word of caution, the charts I am seeing from both the GFS and the NMM look unlikely for much thundery activity. The likely scenario, if it doesn't miss the UK entirely, is that some thunderstorms will spread up towards the channel during Tuesday and spread north as an area of heavy rain with an ever decreasing element of thunder and lightning during the night. I would like to see a better draw of the warm plume of air from the south to enable thundery weather away from the far south east. If the area of low pressure moving across from the west can stall, drawing up southerly winds for a time, then this may just happen.

yes tv forecasters used the dreaded 'thundery rain' tag which is normally associated with 2 cloud farts across England and copious rain......at least we'll get a better idea over the next couple of hi-res runs

[Eye to the sky]

32 minutes ago, Supacell said:

The last decent storm I saw over Derby was overnight on the 3rd/4th July 2015, although there was a brief storm during the afternoon of the 22nd August 2015. However, I have not yet had a year whereby I have not even had the opportunity to chase storms locally (within 100 miles). We do have all of July, August and September to go yet so fingers crossed things turn around.

As for the middle of this week, the BBC are continuing to talk about storms moving up from France. However a word of caution, the charts I am seeing from both the GFS and the NMM look unlikely for much thundery activity. The likely scenario, if it doesn't miss the UK entirely, is that some thunderstorms will spread up towards the channel during Tuesday and spread north as an area of heavy rain with an ever decreasing element of thunder and lightning during the night. I would like to see a better draw of the warm plume of air from the south to enable thundery weather away from the far south east. If the area of low pressure moving across from the west can stall, drawing up southerly winds for a time, then this may just happen.

I too have seen the charts and like you say I would be extremely surprised to see anything thundery this far north.Chances are the storms will drift NE up the North Sea or lose all their spark before reaching the Midlands.But hey we should never give up hope.

[Gordon Webb]

5 minutes ago, Eye to the sky said:

I too have seen the charts and like you say I would be extremely surprised to see anything thundery this far north.Chances are the storms will drift NE up the North Sea or lose all their spark before reaching the Midlands.But hey we should never give up hope.

this appears to confirm your thinking

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Jun 2017

ISSUED 16:43 UTC Sun 25 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Atlantic upper trough will dig south towards Iberia on Tuesday, strong northwesterly jet on its western flank but rather weak return southerly flow on its forward side. Broad upper flow is anticyclonic across the British Isles for much of the day, but higher WBPT airmass will begin to advect northwards from France as the flow backs. Falling heights Tuesday afternoon and evening will promote some destabilisation of this airmass, but in a rather messy fashion with pulses of showery precipitation drifting north from France into southern Britain. This may contain some isolated, embedded lightning, but the bulk of any noteworthy instability will likely only clip the far E/SE corner and largely remain over the nearby Continent. Hence, some lightning may be possible on the eastern flank of showery outbreaks of rain across Kent/Sussex and coastal East Anglia late Tuesday afternoon into the evening/night, but confidence is not particularly high.

 

Elsewhere, behind the main frontal rain some insolation combined with cool air aloft will generate marginal instability across Northern Ireland, with scope for a few heavy showers here - perhaps weakly electrified.

[Had Worse]

https://www.subotica.com/uzivo/kamera-palic-setaliste-pored-jezera.html

 

kills the boredom

[LightningLover]

[Had Worse]

Blitz anyone.  This cam is in Serbia

 

http://www.whatsupcams.com/en/webcams/croatia/vukovar-syrmia/vukovar/webcam-vukovar-water-tower-simbol-battle-vukovar-1991/