Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Daniel*]

Not without interest maybe....

[Dangerous55019]

For what it's worth... Here's my current sky. 

... The question now is, has it come too late? 

[cheese]

It keeps on raining here - very large drops.

Though none of the rain today has been enough to even register in the gauge at all.

Edited June 21, 2017 by cheese

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Had Worse said:

Theres a few pixels knocking about, I assume the cell near Brest is the one you mean.

You are correct, it's just there in the middle of nothing.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Anyone know what the situation will be overnight?

got stuck at work ALL DAY and only just finished :-(  but means I'm off tomorrow now :-)   but this weather is so hard to make sense of!

[Harry]

7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Is anything going to happen in around London? it's 29° in the skies look quite strange

 Don't know whether to stick around or head back home and call it a night 

edit:  or maybe start heading northwards ?

My interpretation of the modelling is that there is little chance of storms tonight thanks to a robust cap and lack of a pronounced trigger.

Had I not seen any models however, everything I can feel and see increasingly tells me otherwise...just left my Parent's house and to my surprise the sky is filling with AcCas and virga from the south. As the temperature now falls the relative humidity is SKY ROCKETING and there's that unmistakable damp floral smell beginning to spring up.

Hardly a breath of wind too...

I wouldn't be inclined to go too strongly against the models. However I've many a time sat here melting, forecasters and models telling me it'll all be up North, only for nocturnal cooling or an unanticipated pre-frontal trough releasing the energy.

See my photo and gauge for yourselves...

[inghams85]

This is shocking...... LOL

[NorthYorksWeather]

More chance of snow than a storm at this rate, had a sleep this afternoon in case anything goes bang overnight.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Harry said:

My interpretation of the modelling is that there is little chance of storms tonight thanks to a robust cap and lack of a pronounced trigger.

Had I not seen any models however, everything I can feel and see increasingly tells me otherwise...just left my Parent's house and to my surprise the sky is filling with AcCas and virga from the south. As the temperature now falls the relative humidity is SKY ROCKETING and there's that unmistakable damp floral smell beginning to spring up.

Hardly a breath of wind too...

I wouldn't be inclined to go too strongly against the models. However I've many a time sat here melting, forecasters and models telling me it'll all be up North, only for nocturnal cooling or an unanticipated pre-frontal trough releasing the energy.

See my photo and gauge for yourselves...

It's exactly what I'm experiencing here in Chelsea borough - 29.5°!!!

feels really like a storm is imminent

[The PIT]

Well I think the English duck quacked a few times then finally fell over dead.

The Scottish duck is still hanging on quacking madly before it flys of north east.

A few lost ducklings over the isle of man I guess the Scottish duck was the parent and they haven't caught up yet.

[Martin Auld]

Nice try netweather but you failed miserably

[TJS1998Tom]

Just now, vizzy2004 said:

More chance of snow than a storm at this rate, had a sleep this afternoon in case anything goes bang overnight.

Been a dissapointment tonight lol, looked so promising earlier as well

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Martin Auld said:

Nice try netweather but you failed miserably

Bet you are gutted

[Weatherman662]

Where are the storms going to be overnight?

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Did anyone get 'severe' weather today?

 

storms look peppy up north but quite tame compared to what I was expecting on radar

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It's exactly what I'm experiencing here in Chelsea borough - 29.5°!!!

feels really like a storm is imminent

Agreed...considering we have had some fairly intense storms already this year, this is by far the most "stormy" it has felt. Of all the days over the past few of the heatwave, without question it is the most humid and Capey (lol).

Im going to periodically keep an eye on proceedings but I'm not placing any bets on storms tonight.

As for Northerners we are soon approaching initiation time. Fairly big model disagreement about where initiation will happen - NMM earlier favouring anywhere from the N Midlands area then N and NE from there. UKMO precip model has it all exploding virtually over/just off the NE coast. These loaded gun environments are tough and frustrating...

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Agreed...considering we have had some fairly intense storms already this year, this is by far the most "stormy" it has felt. Of all the days over the past few of the heatwave, without question it is the most humid and Capey (lol).

Im going to periodically keep an eye on proceedings but I'm not placing any bets on storms tonight.

As for Northerners we are soon approaching initiation time. Fairly big model disagreement about where initiation will happen - NMM earlier favouring anywhere from the N Midlands area then N and NE from there. UKMO precip model has it all exploding virtually over/just off the NE coast. These loaded gun environments are tough and frustrating...

Initiation time was 6pm. The bird has flown for us! 

[Hodgheg]

23 minutes ago, joggs said:

From south London :0

West Yorkshire for today  Lol

[Harry]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Initiation time was 6pm. The bird has flown for us! 

The detonating front and falling pressure is still further W. Wouldn't say it's game over just yet.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Harry

[Hodgheg]

Chucking It down here. These showers look like they will pass soon. Oh well

Edited June 21, 2017 by John Hodgson
Autocorrect

[A.J]

Some really depressingly negative posts by some on here this evening....take a look at the radar, numerous heavy showers breaking out over the Peak District spreading up and into east Yorkshire.....lots of signs of mid-level instability for southern UK with plenty of Ac Cas, & Ac Cas with virga.

The heavy showers up north are in conjunction with a trough moving in from the Irish Sea providing the forcing, and these showers have the potential to develop into quite strong thunderstorms over the next few hours.......further south over central/southern/south west England, we're seeing plenty of mid-level instability as noted above and a waving trough sitting out to the west of the mainland has the potential to destabilise as it moves east overnight, in which case, elevated thunderstorms with plenty of lightning is possible

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

NetWx SR model pretty good for precip placement, however quite a bit our with regards to intensity.

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Some really depressingly negative posts by some on here this evening....take a look at the radar, numerous heavy showers breaking out over the Peak District spreading up and into east Yorkshire.....lots of signs of mid-level instability for southern UK with plenty of Ac Cas, & Ac Cas with virga.

The heavy showers up north are in conjunction with a trough moving in from the Irish Sea providing the forcing, and these showers have the potential to develop into quite strong thunderstorms over the next few hours.......further south over central/southern/south west England, we're seeing plenty of mid-level instability as noted above and a waving trough sitting out to the west of the mainland has the potential to destabilise as it moves east overnight, in which case, elevated thunderstorms with plenty of lightning is possible

 

All-nighter for me then.

It's a difficult scenario for those further south, GFS is the only model of the 3 that I look at which show any precipitation of note tonight. However we know that GFS often over-eggs the amount of showers around.

Euro4 and Netwx-SR having none of it.

 

I'm still inclined to think we won't see anything tonight.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury

[Had Worse]

Srill trying 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Some really depressingly negative posts by some on here this evening....take a look at the radar, numerous heavy showers breaking out over the Peak District spreading up and into east Yorkshire.....lots of signs of mid-level instability for southern UK with plenty of Ac Cas, & Ac Cas with virga.

The heavy showers up north are in conjunction with a trough moving in from the Irish Sea providing the forcing, and these showers have the potential to develop into quite strong thunderstorms over the next few hours.......further south over central/southern/south west England, we're seeing plenty of mid-level instability as noted above and a waving trough sitting out to the west of the mainland has the potential to destabilise as it moves east overnight, in which case, elevated thunderstorms with plenty of lightning is possible

 

I want this :-)