Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Popped out with the camera after finishing work yesterday at 5:45pm. Got onto the storm which passed through Malton when it was near Sledmere in the Yorkshire Wolds. Visually, it appeared supercellula

A few shots of the storm tonight using iLightningCam app.

BIG storm went over here earlier, only just got power back on. Trees down and roads flooded in the Malton area, never seen anything quite like it, absolute carnage. Unfortunately my weather stati

Posted Images

17 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

I think some people should accept they may not see a storm tomorrow. It's always been the case that a Thames Streamer or Kent clipper has happened that it was basically an import. Our weather is so dynamic that forecasting is not always an exact science, coupled with the fact that London acts as an UHI then anything is possible and may become a breeding ground for all points north

For tomorrow I wouldn't be placing the emphasis on the south east but more to the north and west of the severe risk area, it's just a gut feeling!!

Shhhhhh don't say that we need some storms here in Basildon! I think we may get the weaker storms and they strengthen as day time heating occurs tomorrow, with all that cape to tap into. But I hope I'm awoken by a storm in the early hours, I love that feeling.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Justin123 said:

Shhhhhh don't say that we need some storms here in Basildon! I think we may get the weaker storms and they strengthen as day time heating occurs tomorrow, with all that cape to tap into. But I hope I'm awoken by a storm in the early hours, I love that feeling.

I won't be in Basildon as I'm off driving around the south and east, be sure to give any reports if anything happens.

Also could you edit your profile to include your location, it helps a lot! Thanks

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

I won't be in Basildon as I'm off driving around the south and east, be sure to give any reports if anything happens.

Also could you edit your profile to include your location, it helps a lot! Thanks

 

I certainly will let you know about what you missed back at home tomorrow, lol. Yes I will, sorry haven't got too doing it been to excited the past few days. This better go bang big time.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Justin123 said:

I certainly will let you know about what you missed back at home tomorrow, lol. Yes I will, sorry haven't got too doing it been to excited the past few days. This better go bang big time.

Good luck for tomorrow Justin

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bybo1999 said:

Sorry the link is so long , forecast for tomorrow

 

Here:
.SW1.thumb.png.fc506b84d6224750e80f30f47f9db9e6.png
ENH/SLGT risks have been issued for SE UK, Benelux into W Germany with threat for isolated large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall. Models are again overdoing near-surface dewpoints but strong insolation should still easily result in strong instability in the afternoon, MLCAPE likely in excess of 2000 J/kg. Placed under moderate shear, favorable conditions are in place for organized storms, including supercells. Strong cap should limit storm initiation until quite late in the afternoon but once the forcing increases and capping weakens, at least some isolated storms can be expected across S-SE England as well as far NE France into Belgium and S Netherlands. Main threats will be large hail and severe winds. Some clustering can be expected towards the evening when storms continue into W Germany.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I wish this heat and humidity would produce some storms otherwise if it is going to be settled i'd rather it was no more than 20 degrees celsius with little humidity,

This is why i prefer the Autumn and Winter months overall these days because at least in these months you can be guaranteed active weather in the form of atlantic depressions and windy conditions.

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, <<Ryan>> said:

Here:
.SW1.thumb.png.fc506b84d6224750e80f30f47f9db9e6.png
ENH/SLGT risks have been issued for SE UK, Benelux into W Germany with threat for isolated large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall. Models are again overdoing near-surface dewpoints but strong insolation should still easily result in strong instability in the afternoon, MLCAPE likely in excess of 2000 J/kg. Placed under moderate shear, favorable conditions are in place for organized storms, including supercells. Strong cap should limit storm initiation until quite late in the afternoon but once the forcing increases and capping weakens, at least some isolated storms can be expected across S-SE England as well as far NE France into Belgium and S Netherlands. Main threats will be large hail and severe winds. Some clustering can be expected towards the evening when storms continue into W Germany.

Now that's the kind of thing I want to see over Holland at the end of August  :rofl:

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The big thing forming in biscay - is this where we'll be getting the overnight stuff from?

If so we're gonna have a bit of a wait

No I think tht the storms forecast overnight are meant to form in the English Channel, watch the hefty shower that's formed south of Bognor.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Does anyone have a good thunderstorm alarm app or mobile site on their phone? Want to grab some sleep but be warned of storms forming in the channel

I'm just gonna open the window and hope for a thunder alarm.  I might be too far north though...

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Does anyone have a good thunderstorm alarm app or mobile site on their phone? Want to grab some sleep but be warned of storms forming in the channel

The new Netweather radar extra beta app of course! :whistling:

Screenshot_2017-07-06-00-27-46.thumb.png.57db4e84ac48e112f07d07a9c7c19cf6.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

the nmm18z is horrific for west country storm lovers.....off to bed, nothing to see here

I was thinking that, but then again, it hasn't picked up any of those showers in the channel..

Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks as though things might start developing in this area over the next few hours..

2017-07-06_LI.thumb.jpg.c8ab6c51e613e5c21130166155ca20e8.jpg

So something might skim the coasts this way.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

ESTOFEX forecast: 
Est_3.thumb.png.c6e3d9aa967e7c80e62c52cb92ed68a6.png
A level 2 was issued for eastern England, northern France into Benelux and northern and central Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail and to a lesser extent excessive precipitation.

England, northern France, Benelux, northern and central Germany into the Czech Republic

Plume of warm and unstable air masses spreads eastwards on Thursday. Axis of this warm air is expected over The Channel in the morning and noon hours. Strong warm air advection could result in clusters of storms forming early in the period spreading eastward along the warm front. Weak surface-based CAPE limits the severe potential of these storms, but they could be maintained due to frontogenetical forcing on their way to the Benelux countries and north-western Germany. If these storms manage to root the boundary-layer, favourably curved hodographs indicate a risk of supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts.

In the afternoon, some storms are possible further south-east over the mountains of central or southern Germany as well as the Czech Republic. Vertical wind shear is weak to moderate, allowing for multicells that can merge to clusters and travel eastward. Large hail is possible, as well as severe wind gusts and excessive rain. Weak low-level convergence may limit storm initiation, though.

Later in the period, approaching short-wave trough from the west is expected. With evolving southerly low-level flow, warm air advection along the edges of the warm plume increases especially over northern France and the south-eastern UK. Latest models agree in strong moisture increase below the EML along the warm front and moderate to high CAPE is forecast. Additionally, long hodographs with deep-layer shear around 20 m/s and 0-3km shear around 15 m/s will support well-developed multicells or supercells. Current thinking is that storms form in the afternoon and evening across England and northern France, quickly spreading into the North Sea and the Benelux countries. First storms may be capable of producing large or very large hail. Given strong 0-3 km vertical wind shear, bow echoes may form later on with severe wind gusts the main threat. Additionally, excessive rain and tornadoes are not ruled out. Storms will continue to move eastwards into Germany in the evening hours and can also affect the Czech Republic overnight when severe potential gradually decreases as storms become elevated.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, <<Ryan>> said:

ESTOFEX forecast: 
Est_3.thumb.png.c6e3d9aa967e7c80e62c52cb92ed68a6.png
A level 2 was issued for eastern England, northern France into Benelux and northern and central Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail and to a lesser extent excessive precipitation.

England, northern France, Benelux, northern and central Germany into the Czech Republic

Plume of warm and unstable air masses spreads eastwards on Thursday. Axis of this warm air is expected over The Channel in the morning and noon hours. Strong warm air advection could result in clusters of storms forming early in the period spreading eastward along the warm front. Weak surface-based CAPE limits the severe potential of these storms, but they could be maintained due to frontogenetical forcing on their way to the Benelux countries and north-western Germany. If these storms manage to root the boundary-layer, favourably curved hodographs indicate a risk of supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts.

In the afternoon, some storms are possible further south-east over the mountains of central or southern Germany as well as the Czech Republic. Vertical wind shear is weak to moderate, allowing for multicells that can merge to clusters and travel eastward. Large hail is possible, as well as severe wind gusts and excessive rain. Weak low-level convergence may limit storm initiation, though.

Later in the period, approaching short-wave trough from the west is expected. With evolving southerly low-level flow, warm air advection along the edges of the warm plume increases especially over northern France and the south-eastern UK. Latest models agree in strong moisture increase below the EML along the warm front and moderate to high CAPE is forecast. Additionally, long hodographs with deep-layer shear around 20 m/s and 0-3km shear around 15 m/s will support well-developed multicells or supercells. Current thinking is that storms form in the afternoon and evening across England and northern France, quickly spreading into the North Sea and the Benelux countries. First storms may be capable of producing large or very large hail. Given strong 0-3 km vertical wind shear, bow echoes may form later on with severe wind gusts the main threat. Additionally, excessive rain and tornadoes are not ruled out. Storms will continue to move eastwards into Germany in the evening hours and can also affect the Czech Republic overnight when severe potential gradually decreases as storms become elevated.

Looks like I'm in the Level 2 area, will be interesting to see how the day turns out if these come off

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...