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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

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17 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

How do I upload photos from my iPhone to this thread? If it's something to do with going to your attachments, apparently I've used 10 of 4 available MB, and there's no option to delete any existing attachments? 

There's a limit on file size, but there shouldn't be a limit on how many you can upload. You can view attachments by clicking your profile name at the top right of the page you're on. You shouldn't need to delete anything though.. I mean, I have thousands of attachments.

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There's absolutely no link anywhere for me to attach any file directly from my phone! I can see the "insert other media" which just lists my attachments, but there is nowhere on my phone which gives me option to delete existing attachments or upload anything. 

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the first pic is the hole above my house and the other, facing south and north.

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Had a brief shower here about an hour ago, and now looking very dark to the North. Think my area is more of a breeding ground today, still, good luck to those of you in the firing line further North!

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@Dami There is a lot of high level cloud around in Milton Keynes this morning but temp is close to 23'c now, hotter than forecast. In any clear spots I've been seeing some large Alto Cumulus towers building skyward rapidly, so instability in the mid levels is present. Just hoping something can fire up before the clag from the front spoils our chances,

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5 minutes ago, SnowJoke said:

@Dami There is a lot of high level cloud around in Milton Keynes this morning but temp is close to 23'c now, hotter than forecast. In any clear spots I've been seeing some large Alto Cumulus towers building skyward rapidly, so instability in the mid levels is present. Just hoping something can fire up before the clag from the front spoils our chances,

I think the front is painfully close and sadly any cells will be building away from this area.

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Just had 15 minute shower here in Staines, heaviest rain I've seen for absolutely ages! Roads flooding but no thunder. 

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Towers trying to go up in Tower (no pun intended) Hamlets.

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4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Jun 2017

ISSUED 07:26 UTC Fri 02 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 07:26 UTC Latest guidance continues to trend towards a reactivation of the frontal boundary this evening/overnight with showery outbreaks of rain developing over the Midlands into East Anglia - questionable as to how much (if any) lightning activity will be present with this, but given some marginal elevated instability have extended the LOW threat westwards to cater for this potential. That aside, still some uncertainty as to how things will evolve this afternoon with regards to surface-based thunderstorm potential over East Anglia / SE England - early initiation (11-14z) is still signalled by some NWP output.

Broad upper vortex will approach from the Atlantic, preceded by a strengthening southerly flow encouraging advection of a warm, moist airmass at low-levels ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.

There is the potential for some elevated convection to develop over the English Channel and drift into SE England late Friday morning. Then, given enough insolation, combined with low-level convergence, a few scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours across E/SE England. This is highly dependent on the speed of the cold front, which carries some uncertainty - in general, a quicker arrival will narrow the window of opportunity for phasing with maximum daytime heating.

Nonetheless, given 600-800 Jkg-1 CAPE and reasonable DLS a few thunderstorms seem plausible at least, in an environment favourable for organisation into multicells and perhaps even a supercell. Initiation could be as early as 11-14z. Forecast profiles look fairly saturated, so hail perhaps not such an issue - though the strongest cells could produce local incidences of hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. Surface water flooding perhaps more of a significant risk given PWAT 30-35mm - scope then for 25-30mm to fall in a short space of time.

There are also suggestions amongst NWP guidance of an additional cluster of elevated deep convection to occur during the evening and night hours over similar areas.

A few scattered heavy showers will also be possible Friday afternoon across parts of Scotland, perhaps weakly-electrified given strong shear but marginal instability - hence an eastwards extension of the LOW threat level. In the post-frontal environment, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and bring a few scattered showers late in the day and into the night across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and into western Scotland - some perhaps weakly electrified.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-02

Hold up, a Supercell?!!! :shok:

Edited by Windblade

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I'm due to go cinema tonight to watch the new Alien film but I'll be cancelling that if there's a strong storm/frequent lighting activity and going chasing instead.

Edited by Windblade
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20 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

May head out into Norfolk or towards Ely way shortly. Developing cells over Hertfordshire look as if they will move over that way. 

hi, i think we are just a little to north here, but its been sunnier and warmer than forecast so there is hope

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Some nice convection going up to north of where I am now in Beckenham, SE London

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Kicking off west London, but generally I don't this is is gonna be anything but heavy thundery showers with marginal storms drifting north of London up out to sea. Temps are good but limited to 25 degrees here (wallington) when I last checked.

Would love to be proved otherwise tho!

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5 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Sferics in LDN!

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Coming from this blackness, just north west of my location.

 

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Also, lots of cauliflowers bubbling up here (sorry about the dirt on the window, they really need to get a window cleaner in here).

Edited by Windblade

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Very humid and hot here just south west of London in Surbiton. The sun is out intermittently and the skies are definitely giving it a try. No sign of the heavy rain that @stainesbloke had; it looks as if there have been some heavy downpours to the NW side. Fingers crossed for some storms:)

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Capture.thumb.JPG.26fffc87643852af95ce3ec051ff2e53.JPG

Damm that's fast moving. Its already outside the M25 :shok:. Another near miss. :(

Edited by Windblade

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Hot and sunny here and some dark clouds approaching from the West. Thinking about driving M11 way to intercept the active cell.

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5 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Very humid and hot here just south west of London in Surbiton. The sun is out intermittently and the skies are definitely giving it a try. No sign of the heavy rain that @stainesbloke had; it looks as if there have been some heavy downpours to the NW side. Fingers crossed for some storms:)

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Was the heaviest rain I've seen for a long time! Sun back out now and feeling like Singapore lol

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