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Roger J Smith

June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

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14.7 to the 13th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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Sunny Sheffield still on 14.3C +1.4C above average.

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Here In Edmonton running at 15.6c for June so far which is 0.6c above the local average...looks pretty cool for the next 7-10 days over here however

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Forget about the calendar, since daily records began in 1772, these would be the warmest months of 31 days in length (using only the warmest cases from any given year although open to any non-overlapping cases of which non were found, candidates all had some days from within the peak 31-day intervals).

The data are shown in terms of mean CET, start and end dates of these July or August like months, and in notes, some idea of the range of other dates that would have made the list established by 19.0 deg. Most tied cases are shown in the end dates but a wide range of intervals in 1975 all averaged out to 19.0, the warmest by second decimal being the one shown in the table.

 

YEAR __ 31-day CET ____ Start _____ End _____ Notes on longevity of 19.0+ means

1995 _____ 20.3 _______ 24 Jul ____ 23 Aug ___ all 31-day periods 03 Jul to 31 Aug 

1976 _____ 20.2 __ 21 or 22 Jun __ 21 or 22 Jul __all 31-day periods 07 Jun to 29 Jul

2006 _____ 19.7 __29,30 Jun,1 Jul _ 29-31 Jul __ all 31-day periods 26 Jun to 10 Aug

1911 _____ 19.5 ____ 19-21 Jul __ 18-20 Aug ___ all 31-day periods 12 Jul to 27 Aug

1983 _____ 19.5 _____ 1, 2 Jul __ 31 Jul, 1 Aug __ all 31-day periods 28 Jun to 8 Aug

1997 _____ 19.2 ____ 24-27 Jul __ 23-26 Aug ___ all 31-day periods 21 Jul to 30 Aug

2003 _____ 19.3 ____ 23-24 Jul __ 22-23 Aug ___ all 31-day periods 22 Jul to 24 Aug

1868 _____ 19.1 _______ 07 Jul ____ 06 Aug ___ also 08 Jul to 07 Aug was 19.0

1947 _____ 19.0 ____ 23-26 Jul __ 22-25 Aug 

1975 _____ 19.0 _______ 16 Jul ____ 15 Aug ___ also periods starting 13-17, 21-22 and 28 July

2013 _____ 19.0 _______ 06 Jul ____ 05 Aug ___ no other periods

1783 _____ 18.9 ____ 29,30 Jun ____ 29,30 Jul

1808 _____ 18.9 ____ 07-11 Jul ____ 06-10 Aug

1826 _____ 18.9 ____ 10-12 Jun ___ 10-12 Jul

1852 _____ 18.9 ____ 03-04 Jul ____ 02-03 Aug

1921 _____ 18.9 _______ 03 Jul ____ 02 Aug

___________________________________________________

(1990 maxed out at 18.6, 1846 with warmest June maxed out 5 June-5 July at 18.3)

some years from 1659 to 1771 could have made this list. The only calendar months that came close were 18.4 in July 1757, 18.3 in July 1701 and 1733 and in August 1747, and 18.2 in July 1759; the latter matches July and August 1911. 

 

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Nearly at the half way point of June, and it looks like another above average month is on the cards, and possibly appreciably so following on from the theme of the past 12 months. Expect the CET to ramp up over the coming days with very high minima and maxima.. I do believe there will be quick to more average means before the year is out, and my hunch is the trend will set in come August, just a hunch, and my hunch has always been for June to be the best month of the summer (it though has a lot of groundwork still to do here, as so far it has been very poor..)

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14.9 to the 14th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

Edited by Summer Sun
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

14.9 to the 14th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

Hot weekend and hot start to next week. Warmest June since 2006 on the way?

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1 hour ago, White Clouds said:

Warmest June since 2006 on the way?

Looking fairly likely at this stage.

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

14.9 to the 14th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

Can we just stop there please? That's my guess and I don't want it to go any higher or lower, so if you just all take a break until a fortnight tomorrow that would be good.

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We're now on 16.2C (+2.8C) to the 15th. This is turning into an exceptional month, especially when you consider the warmest June (2003) was 16.1C.

This comes after both the warmest March and May on record (since 1980).

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A big jump to 14.6C +1.6C above normal. May make 14.7C tomorrow depending on the overnight low. The weekend should see it above 15C and heading towards 15.5 maybe higher. Looking at the moment it will be the warmest June since 2006.  Even the brief cold spell shown on the GFS won't do a lot to stop it getting well above normal. My punt of 15.8C is looking to be on the low side.

Edited by The PIT

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12 z GFS suggests mean of 17.2 from tomorrow to end of month, so blending that with estimated 15.0 first half, comes out around 16.1 for the month. Would be 16.3 on 28th and slight cooling 29th-30th which is basically FI so could support any outcome in the 16 to 17 range. 

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Very possible we could clear 16.1 for the month now (will depend on what the last 5 days of June bring us - models in FI are suggesting a cooler more average outlook) and if we do that by my reckoning that will make this the warmest June since 1976!

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15.0 to the 15th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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The minimum today is 11.8C, while maxima look like creeping above 20C, so 15.0C or 15.1C is likely on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.3C to the 17th (19.2: +4.2)
15.5C to the 18th (18.7: +3.9)
15.7C to the 19th (20.6: +5.4)
15.9C to the 20th (18.2: +3.1)
15.8C to the 21st (15.0: +0.6)
15.9C to the 22nd (17.3: +2.7)
16.0C to the 23rd (19.5: +4.7)
16.1C to the 24th (18.0: +3.1)
16.1C to the 25th (16.3: +1.0)

The forecast is for temperatures to remain well above average over the next week. Provided the 5 day forecast is accurate, here's how the month would pan out if it then followed the daily CET values of every previous year.

vBKyveh.png

That produces a likely upper and lower range (before corrections) of 15.0C to 16.3C. If we followed 1976 we climb as high as 17.4C, or as low as 14.6C following 1907.

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Sunny Sheffield now at 14.7C another small rise for today and then some big ones over the weekend unless the Met Office get it totally wrong.

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Interestingly the divergence yesterday was caused by the GFS wanting to increase trades over the eastern Pacific and western Pacific while the Euro wanted to keep the current westerly wind burst. I would assume looking at the models today that this is reversed with the Euro ending things by Thursday. 

This is essentially the difference between 15C and 16C. 

Edited by summer blizzard

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15.1 to the 16th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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Sunny Sheffield 14.9C +1.7C above normal.

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Up to 16.6C here now to the 17th, some 3.1C above the 1981-2010 average for this point in the month.

The odds on beating the previous warmest in 2003 (16.1C) are shortening by the day. I don't have records far enough back, but an estimate from the metoffice climate anomalies site suggests 1976 would have been around 17.0C, so a realistic target with the heat which is forecast.

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15.3c here to the 16th, 1.8c above the 1981-2010 average.

Forecast suggests up up and away...

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15.4 to the 17th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

1.5 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________________

Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

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I can't see it finishing below 16c

Edited by Summer 1976

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