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Paul Sherman

Stormchase 2017 - Chase Day 10 - HIGH RISK

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We are in Woodward this evening under blazing sun and moisture increasing ahead of tomorrow. We are also in good company surrounded by the Dows and the Twirl project at our hotel.

Current thinking is the Oklahoma and Kansas border area or a little bit north of these towards Greensburg from early models. Expecting Initiation by 3-4pm tomorrow with some dangerous storms possible and long track cyclic Supercells aplenty. Hodos look a lot better for tomorrow with a lot less VBV in the profiles which scuppered Tuesdays event a tad with wet RFD making for HP Supercells when Supercells matured. More of a gamble further south but again if something goes in Western Oklahoma and Western North Texas it could be big as well if any Storm can turn right.

Wish Tour 1 luck with there last 2 days !

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Now playing with a high risk good luck Tour 1 

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Cant believe its been 10 years since the Greensburg Tornado, lets hope its not a repeat of that awful day as the High Risk area is bang on Greensburg area..

 

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1 hour ago, NL said:

Not a Moderate risk Paul....HIGH Risk.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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Potentially dangerous situation brewing out there today..given the number of chasers that will be on it..

The Chaser map is going to make Kansas look as though it has a severe rash on it tonight.

Stay safe guys. Remember storm chasing is like picking bluebells "Look but don't touch.."

 

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2 minutes ago, James 'Jamie C' Croucher said:

How I wish I was on tour 1.......

Jamie, I have done all the tours, and tour one and two are usually the feisty ones. Although it has to be said when tour 1 was in April it sometimes lacked lustre. Tour 3 has been feisty as has Tour 4. In general, (as I have experienced on a few occasions) it's the luck of the draw, no more no less. If yo're going you will still enjoy, whatever happens..

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Yes I echo that sentiment 

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Fingers crossed!! I was right under the funnel that come out of the brief storm in Dorset the other week so I'm taking that as a good omen :-), so long as I see decent lightning and I'll be happy, to see a tornado, well mission accomplished!  (And if I don't, well it's a good excuse to go again ;-) )

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19 minutes ago, James 'Jamie C' Croucher said:

Fingers crossed!! I was right under the funnel that come out of the brief storm in Dorset the other week so I'm taking that as a good omen :-), so long as I see decent lightning and I'll be happy, to see a tornado, well mission accomplished!  (And if I don't, well it's a good excuse to go again ;-) )

Yes, I keep telling myself that each time I book.

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Upgraded to High Risk but a lot of complications with this forecast as there always is with a High Risk.

Early day severe storms may scupper the chances east of the low, lots of things to get ironed out yet

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Upgraded to High Risk but a lot of complications with this forecast as there always is with a High Risk.

Early day severe storms may scupper the chances east of the low, lots of things to get ironed out yet

You could always head to Colorado and go play in the snow, looking good up there today for some decent snowfall!

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All the ingredients coming together today for one of if not the biggest tornado outbreaks of the season thus far. A deep upper low is slowly rotating east off the Four Corners over the Mountain west, strong SWly flow aloft ahead of this low across the southern and central Plains, surface low over southern high plains drawing rich low-level moisture north from Gulf of Mexico across much of southern plains south of warm front, eventually lifting into Kansas. 3000-4000 j/kg CAPE this afternoon in this moisture as temps hit 80-90F and lapse rates steepen as upper low approaches from west. 

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Winds backing SEly below SWly flow aloft will create strong low-level shear -especially along triple point and warm front moving Into western Kansas and dry line edging in across SW Kansas and W Oklahoma. Ideal conditions for tornadoes should storms that form remain discrete. 

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some concerns with regards to recent model runs though. HRRR a little messy with one round of storms pushing up from the south across Oklahoma this afternoon as moisture surges north and is lifted by a disturbance in upper flow ejecting NE, then another round developing early evening along dryline, which should be more discrete and pose the greatest tornado risk. Best not to get suckered in to the first round this afternoon perhaps. 

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Still waiting for the decent moisture to arrive here in Woodward in NW Oklahoma, where we have stayed overnight

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... but the big guns of the storm chasing and research world were at our hotel last night

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https://mobile.twitter.com/NickJF75/status/865197656800415744

 

Edited by Nick F

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Nick, on the first chart I see something of foreboding. Look carefully you will see the evil eyes and the evil smile with the tongue poked out at everybody...An evil sign if ever there was one..

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Just posting this link for readers' interest, observations in real time, click on any station to see the METAR. (edit -- the map link shows up in Midwest states because it's from the MSP home page, just steer the map southwest until you see OKC, AMA, DDC and GCK.

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar?zoom=6&lat=45.0328&lon=-94.36328&layers=B00FFTFFFFFTT&plottype=model&scale=1&density=0&metric=false&decoded=false&taf=false

This can be changed to metric units, the link will load up in Imperial (deg F etc) -- the pressure at first will show in inches (without the 2 or 3), e.g. 29.50" SLP will show as 950. But you can change it to metric (see options below map) -- in metric the pressure is mbs. (e.g. 050 would be 1005.0, 990 would be 999.0). 

In case not obvious, you can move around on this map and adjust the scale. You will have to draw your own isobars though. 

My forecast would be widespread F3-5 potential Dodge City KS to 50w OKC by 00z peak activity 03z (which is a bit after sunset so long-lived supercells tracking northeast and accelerating to 60 mph. The logistics suggest tail-end Charlie watch might be safest option. That could even be in Wichita Falls region, Lawton for sure. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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SPC to issue a Tornado and PDS watch within the hour.

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It's going to be a long night. Cell near Altus already has a couplet and tight Meso.

Be safe and please be careful on the roads - the chaser clutter is going to be ridiculous. 

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Sitting North of Woodward at the moment, holding our ground atm

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Good link Neil. Good luck Paul & Team1 !!

Seeing some concerns over storm mode on those SW OK warm sector storms, but nothing I can see is indicating this (although I'm no expert) - wind fields are good too. Helicity not quite forecasted to get to El Reno levels, but still pretty impressive in a couple of hours time.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Sitting North of Woodward at the moment, holding our ground atm

With Peanuts :D 

 

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That T shown close to Lone Wolf, looks to have some fairly good forward speed on it.. Quick measure shows 30kms in 25mins..

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Local weather update from OK tv

 

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