North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Barmada_Casten]

It was initially looking like Cumbria and the Lake District was going to get a right pasting but that has def  shifted and it looks the bulk of the heavy snowfall will be more to the south of the region and going on experience is probably what will happen. Its not often when these things shift south they regress back north. I can see Cumbria (lower levels) generally either getting (a) nothing or (b) 2 - 4 cm while the rest of the region gets about 10 - 15 cm. I am already getting that sickening feeling as this happens every year to me. Devestated is not the word....

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, karyo said:

The high resolution models and the UKMO keep the band over the Midlands and Wales with our region getting little if precipitation.

It will be interesting to see whether the ECM also corrects south.

Do you have the UKMO PPN charts as I can't seem to find them, I found the 72 chart quite interesting to say the least.

I have noticed even the UKMO is keeping ever so slightly colder uppers over us, that may suggest as you say the band of PPN is further South.

[WillinGlossop]

Heavy hail shower turned to snowflakes.... wet variety mind....

[Badgers01]

9 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

It's looking like my location in Ambleside Cumbria is going to miss out on the bulk of the major snowfall on Sunday which will be more to the south if the region. I can't quite believe this. Plenty of rain today also. Really really p****d off again! The amount of times this has happened to me is unbearable. 

The Lake District is often not that snowy - I used to spend a week a month there for over 20 years until recently rarely snowed in Keswick , as I recall Ambleside / south of Dunmail Raise used to do better !! 

[frosty ground]

Oooo just had a heavy snow warning in your area alert from the net w radar... just downloaded it..... 

[Day 10]

My brain is frazzled reading the mod thread, so many different ideas on Sunday's potential snow. Hoping for something tomorrow anyhow.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

3 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

It was initially looking like Cumbria and the Lake District was going to get a right pasting but that has def  shifted and it looks the bulk of the heavy snowfall will be more to the south of the region and going on experience is probably what will happen. Its not often when these things shift south they regress back north. I can see Cumbria (lower levels) generally either getting (a) nothing or (b) 2 - 4 cm while the rest of the region gets about 10 - 15 cm. I am already getting that sickening feeling as this happens every year to me. Devestated is not the word....

I feel you, when was the last time we had snow from a slider? i honestly cant remember

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Oooo just had a heavy snow warning in your area alert from the net w radar... just downloaded it..... 

DELETE DOH!!

Edited December 7, 2017 by northwestsnow

[cfallon]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Oooo just had a heavy snow warning in your area alert from the net w radar... just downloaded it..... 

Here’s hoping frosty, is the app free? 

[iand61]

5 minutes ago, shadowfax said:

Thunder and lightning and hail then some silly sod further up the valley let’s off some fireworks. Poor dog in meltdown!!

Yep there's a lot of idiots in our village and letting fireworks off 52 weeks of the damn year is one of the stupid things that gets them excited.

as for the weather, home early from work today and just got in as the hail briefly turned everything white.

mostly gone now but definately sleet in the showers and still hopeful of snow later this evening and overnight.

then we wait to see what Sunday brings.

[Thunder Snow]

what time is the band of winteyness due that was showed on bbc

[frosty ground]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

For which area FG

Moorside.... I assume that heavy shower over to the West is gonna turn to snow here shortly

[I Cumbria Marra I]

4 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

The Lake District is often not that snowy - I used to spend a week a month there for over 20 years until recently rarely snowed in Keswick , as I recall Ambleside / south of Dunmail Raise used to do better !! 

And Keswick usually get 5x more snow than us on the coast.

[raul_sbd]

4.2c   2.2 dew here in Sale South Manc

[Thunder Snow]

left the model thread cant keep up with it lol 

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Do you have the UKMO PPN charts as I can't seem to find them, I found the 72 chart quite interesting to say the least.

I have noticed even the UKMO is keeping ever so slightly colder uppers over us, that may suggest as you say the band of PPN is further South.

I don't have the precipitation chart but if you look at the 72 hour chart on meteociel (it doesn't let me post it here) most of the heavy staff will be within the 983 line. We are to the north of that and with a light easterly flow there will also be a rain shadow effect for Greater Manchester.

 

[More Runs Needed]

3.5c in East Stockport, only rain showers though

[Iceaxecrampon]

5 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

I feel you, when was the last time we had snow from a slider? i honestly cant remember

Odd.   

Had some good winter expeditions in Cumbria  Involves walking and a bit of climbing but always delivers just have to drive 50 miles at the moment  until we  move to Sedbergh next year hopefully  

 

[chris78]

Dew point was 0.7 just after a hail shower, 1.3 now after its been dry for half an hour or so, temp 4.1.

Going to be fun seeing what happens over the next few days, but Im not confident of seeing lying snow.

[karyo]

The updated euro 4 has the trough over us at midnight giving a hefty dollop of rain. Snow on high ground.

It has gradually downgraded the wintriness with every update.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Temp and DP both on the slide quite nicely here now

[northwestsnow]

BBC raw still going for heavy snow moorside oldham 11pm unytil 4am!!

Hope its right 

[weatherobsuk]

Looks like thunder around Glossop/Stalybridge way the past hour from sferic data, not heard or seen anything here however.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

The updated euro 4 has the trough over us at midnight giving a hefty dollop of rain. Snow on high ground.

It has gradually downgraded the wintriness with every update.

 

Yes euro4 is a complete write off for 90% of us

[chris78]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes euro4 is a complete write off for 90% of us

hmm that should really kill off our interest, the most recent high resolution output says no.    But the hype gets to us,  so i imagine most of us (me included) will cling to the hope its wrong, (it wont be wrong).