North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[SP1986]

Rain and sleet for Wirral?

[Joe Bloggs]

06z GFS is an upgrade for our region. :-) 

[frosty ground]

28 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

06z GFS is an upgrade for our region. :-) 

Very much for the West side not so much for those east of the m6.... 

Then again the charts really do say something else.....

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Manchester

 

 

[chiffer]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Very much for the West side not so much for those east of the m6.... 

Then again the charts really do say something else.....

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Manchester

 

 

Is about time west of the M6 got some snow, however how many times have we in the west expected snow only for bolton and manchester to get pasted while we see one dangly flake!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Where can i find the EC snow depth chart?

[cheshire snow]

27 minutes ago, chiffer said:

Is about time west of the M6 got some snow, however how many times have we in the west expected snow only for bolton and manchester to get pasted while we see one dangly flake!

Why is your picture side ways,are you looking at the Charts in a funny way

C.S

Quote

 

 

[chiffer]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Why is your picture side ways,are you looking at the Charts in a funny way

C.S

 

Apparently my picture uploading skills are just as bad as my chart reading 

[geri]

Very fond memories of December 2010 here in southport ? Any chance of a repeat performance? 

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, geri said:

Very fond memories of December 2010 here in southport ? Any chance of a repeat performance? 

 Hi :-) I’d do anything for a repeat of that day. This is probably going to be the closest We’ve been to it for a while. 

[Joe Bloggs]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Very much for the West side not so much for those east of the m6.... 

Then again the charts really do say something else.....

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Manchester

 

 

Don’t agree - 06z GFS would result in showers coming well inland. Precipitation charts/xcweather unreliable at that range. 

[frosty ground]

25 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Don’t agree - 06z GFS would result in showers coming well inland. Precipitation charts/xcweather unreliable at that range. 

No I agree 100% with what your saying, it' just the raw output is not showing that much ppn east of manchester. 

Experience says that  not going to be the case thou

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

No I agree 100% with what your saying, it' just the raw output is not showing that much ppn east of manchester. 

Experience says that  not going to be the case thou

Ah I see!  

yeah the raw output will show nothing until about 48 hours before. Hopefully the winds will be maintained on a WNW’ly 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Where can i find the EC snow depth chart?

Here..

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20171204-1500z.html

[Joe Bloggs]

6z GFS control run. What an absolutely stonking chart for our region. Just amazing. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSC00EU06_96_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSC00EU06_96_2.png

Fingers crossed. 

[Joe Bloggs]

For anyone worrying about uppers btw - this was Christmas Day 2004 . Interesting as the forecast for later this week is colder.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2004/cfsr/CFSR_1_2004122518_2.png

[Bury88]

As it stands, netweather the only ones forecasting snow for my location (Bury, lancs) met office and bbc both saying no, sigh

[dodge]

Hopefully if the Irish Sea generator get's going like Dec 2010 there should be a decent chance of most places in the north west region benefiting from some wintery goodness by this time next week.  I think inland areas need to pin their hopes in the 36 hours from Thursday evening, after that wishbone effect will come into play... but then there's the talk of slider lows lining up.  Could be interesting or the inevitable last minute downgrade could show their cards.  Thankfully I'm only one third of the way up the garden path so I can make it back safely if it all goes pete-tong.

[northwestsnow]

Looks fantastic for the cheshire gap streamer...those of in the east of the region have to hope for the best...but from a purely selfish point of view i wont be watching the radar if all those snow showers are piling in to my SE...done that before and it annoyed me !!

Still...in the best spirit of christmas i wish all those in the south of the region good luck !!

[Chris.R]

Was 17th Dec 2010 a Cheshire gap streamer? My memory is letting me down. 

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Was 17th Dec 2010 a Cheshire gap streamer? My memory is letting me down. 

Possibly, hope you do well chris, and all the others towards the west of the region, its normally west is worst but this time...;)

[wrightc23]

Did someone say 'Cheshire Gap Streamer'?  Looking promising this far out for the end of the week and through the weekend. Fingers crossed! Possibly a proper snow event?

[northwestsnow]

The strange thing is the raw data is suggesting WNW winds but now saying here will be bone dry- there is no way it will be dry here in a WNW - maybe they will update later to more North west?

 

[wrightc23]

18 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Was 17th Dec 2010 a Cheshire gap streamer? My memory is letting me down. 

I seem to recall a good one in early January 2009?

Edited December 4, 2017 by wrightc23

[Chris.R]

18 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

I seem to recall a good one in early January 2009?

I must have got rain then as I don’t remember that. I remember getting some snow off an Easterly in the first week of Feb that year though. 

[Joe Bloggs]

46 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The strange thing is the raw data is suggesting WNW winds but now saying here will be bone dry- there is no way it will be dry here in a WNW - maybe they will update later to more North west?

 

Ignore the raw data until 48 hours before. Like I said before,  it is crap for picking up on convective precip. Seriously if you keep checking the app it will drive you mad.