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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards


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20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Interesting 

E446EA04-44F1-4111-98D8-D92F68CB95A9.thumb.png.4aec358f565b90773746f3c12499566e.png

Hmmmmmmm

liking that one :)  Glos and now south glos potentially getting in on the action  plus some even further south. 

Brecon Beacons seeing 40+ cm omg.

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if, on the off chance that we hit the jackpot sunday/monday then who fancies joining me on a recce into the Northern England Regional threads monday night to say "hello" and then do some serious gloat

I looked at this chart and proudly pronounced to the wife that she was getting 10-15cm tomorrow.....she just laughed  the old ones are the best......lol

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Hello..

.A visitor in here...

keep up the positivity.

 I notice that  the rain (?) has already reached the Southwest of Cornwall (according to the radar). anyone confirm?

It would appear to be moving in more quickly than expected.

 

MIA 

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23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Interesting 

E446EA04-44F1-4111-98D8-D92F68CB95A9.thumb.png.4aec358f565b90773746f3c12499566e.png

I looked at this chart and proudly pronounced to the wife that she was getting 10-15cm tomorrow.....she just laughed :cray:

the old ones are the best......lol

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One of my best memories was a rain to snow event in school. Does anyone around the Bristol area remember snow in the winter 2005/2006? I never see that date thrown around on this forum but it was one of the best I can remember down here. Started the lesson with rain, finished the lesson with about an inch on the ground. It continued to snow heavily for a good 5-6 hours. Good times.

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Brr, dropped to -4.5C last night, beating the -3.4C on the 29th November. No snow here though.

14 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I agree if comparing GFS/other models to the MetO warning. What I cannot understand is their own wind forecasts - they don't match the warnings at all. If you go by the wind forecasts, then why wasn't there a warning out for Weds in to Thurs night? There was a stretch of around 8 - 10 hours of 45mph +, yet they're forecast shows the low 40's for around 3 hours. The weather maps and wind forecasts have always seemed correct during a warning, but not this time. It's extremely confusing.

It did seem a bit strange I guess, bur I presume they thought differently to whatever computer output drives the symbol forecasts.

 

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Someone posted  this chart earlier and here is the huge problem that massive Azores  high  is so elongated and huge it’s deflecting wins west to east now if that could just go into a vertical position right up and link up to Greenland we would be in much better position 

 

 But this just seems to sit there constantly most of the time making it very difficult for any systems to approach from the north  

1265C7EA-402F-4B29-8D36-68C6F8168A21.png

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10 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Hello..

.A visitor in here...

keep up the positivity.

 I notice that  the rain (?) has already reached the Southwest of Cornwall (according to the radar). anyone confirm?

It would appear to be moving in more quickly than expected.

 

MIA 

As expected looking at radar.

7E47D248-B4AE-467F-8B0A-163B7066CC90.thumb.png.6750b1728c9fcf2f5604caaf64ac141a.pngD97BE01E-1E02-4483-B676-FC533EBD8B9A.thumb.png.515536d80cc5de52a3e08932c9a95445.png

If anything it’s progress is a bit slower.

good luck 

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The BBC forecast for tomorrow shows rain at first and then the band seems to pivot near Gloucester and the precipitation turns briefly to snow in the afternoon in my area.

Would be great to see some snow falling this weekend. Otherwise it will mean a quick blast up the M5 to chase the snow band lol!

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17 minutes ago, Nick_Somerset said:

Could the cold front strengthen and win out over the warm front coming up from the south...or at least drag the cold so far south that (pray to the snow gods) Somerset takes a hit? Could it...would it...models all seem to show a little shift south each run...

I honestly don’t know. It’s happened before so you never know. I’m remaining cautiously optimistic 

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16 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

One of my best memories was a rain to snow event in school. Does anyone around the Bristol area remember snow in the winter 2005/2006? I never see that date thrown around on this forum but it was one of the best I can remember down here. Started the lesson with rain, finished the lesson with about an inch on the ground. It continued to snow heavily for a good 5-6 hours. Good times.

Can't remember a rain to snow event in that winter. The last totally unexpected rain to snow event I remember is 11th January 2008 - floods followed by settling snow. That one put to bed the myth of snow not settling on sodden ground.

Might you be thinking of 09th Feb 2007? That one was a constant alternation of snow and rain in central Bristol, and came on a Friday.

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1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Can't remember a rain to snow event in that winter. The last totally unexpected rain to snow event I remember is 11th January 2008 - floods followed by settling snow. That one put to bed the myth of snow not settling on sodden ground.

Might you be thinking of 09th Feb 2007? That one was a constant alternation of snow and rain in central Bristol, and came on a Friday.

I would've left school in 2007. Although it could've been 2004/2005

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This is getting quite exciting now......there seems to be a good possibility for quite a lot of us. No matter how old I get, I still get excited when there is a possibility of snow and I still go out to play in it if I am not at work.  The love of snow is not something you ever grow out of!

Edit.......I was looking at some of the stuff in the MAD thread, which looked quite good, but then checked the met office forecast and it said heavy rain...how very confusing!

Edited by noggin
Clarification/confusion
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arpegeuk-45-45-0.png?09-12

ARPEGE suggesting accumulations even in southern England later Sunday and overnight into Monday. Small scale disturbances plus a bit of height such as the Mendips and Salisbury Plain will make all the difference

 

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7 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

arpegeuk-45-45-0.png?09-12

ARPEGE suggesting accumulations even in southern England later Sunday and overnight into Monday. Small scale disturbances plus a bit of height such as the Mendips and Salisbury Plain will make all the difference

 

You’re quite high up there too Chapmslade. I can see over your way from where I live . 

 

Quite often you have microclimate there , when I used to drive to Westbury I’d see snow fog ice where you ate but nothing in westbury . 

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Well it would seem the jury is still out just 24 hours or less before the event :crazy::help:

I no longer have any clue what is going to transpire but If I had to take a punt id expect heavy precipitation to hit us all. :rofl:

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Blast it, I really need to go out and get some milk and bread, but I don't want to tear myself away from here, as I am getting sweaty palms at the thought of the next lot of models coming out before long. Decisions, decisions........ If I go now though, at least when I come back I can settle down without that niggle at the back of my mind........models, Strictly, IACGMOOH........that's the rest of my Saturday sorted!

Fingers crossed for all of us re snow.

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1 minute ago, noggin said:

Blast it, I really need to go out and get some milk and bread, but I don't want to tear myself away from here, as I am getting sweaty palms at the thought of the next lot of models coming out before long. Decisions, decisions........ If I go now though, at least when I come back I can settle down without that niggle at the back of my mind........models, Strictly, IACGMOOH........that's the rest of my Saturday sorted!

Fingers crossed for all of us re snow.

I’ve got to collect my daughter in a mo and there’s no phone network where she is.. not sure how I’ll cope without being able to keep one eye on here!! 

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