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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards


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if, on the off chance that we hit the jackpot sunday/monday then who fancies joining me on a recce into the Northern England Regional threads monday night to say "hello" and then do some serious gloat

I looked at this chart and proudly pronounced to the wife that she was getting 10-15cm tomorrow.....she just laughed  the old ones are the best......lol

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3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I saw that bit! I need a laugh. Been a hell of a day. No bleeding time to look out side til now! Now i'm too knackered to get up to do any lamping ...

2C970E62-E49E-461B-9CD1-0C9C329B5E83.thumb.png.fc658f62b146079175aa1c63d00f4875.png

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I think we have to be realistic here it doesn't matter one jot where the sliders end up and all that ppn coming up from the south west on Sunday the fact remains the temperatures here are projected to be 10 degrees and only 2 further north (midlands)  The brief period of possible snow on Monday looks unlikely for the far south again I don't believe our temperatures will be conducive for snow.  Howling winds and rain seems probable.

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12 minutes ago, kent said:

I think we have to be realistic here it doesn't matter one jot where the sliders end up and all that ppn coming up from the south west on Sunday the fact remains the temperatures here are projected to be 10 degrees and only 2 further north (midlands)  The brief period of possible snow on Monday looks unlikely for the far south again I don't believe our temperatures will be conducive for snow.  Howling winds and rain seems probable.

Well nothing to back it up but im sure your probably on the money with that prediction :rofl::wallbash:

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Not posted for a while but the Met Office wind warning looks reasonable now based on this

ukgust.pngukgust.png
Guess they have better tools than the earlier GFS or are siding with other tools than the model that drives their symbol forecasts

Anyway.. a weather report from earlier:

Uppers of -8C: check. Land track of about 50 miles: Check. Showers of sleet/rain: Check...

Funnily enough they were less wintry than a few light sleet/graupel/snow flurries early this afternoon (not enough to dampen the ground) even though it was 5-6C, with a max temp of 6.4C today.

Apart from that, there's been a void with no shower development upstream which has now returned again, funny that.

The temperature has fallen quite quick recently though and is now -1.2C

Edited by Evening thunder
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3 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Not posted for a while but the Met Office wind warning looks reasonable now based on this

ukgust.pngukgust.png
Guess they have better tools than the earlier GFS or are siding with other tools than the model that drives their symbol forecasts
 

I agree if comparing GFS/other models to the MetO warning. What I cannot understand is their own wind forecasts - they don't match the warnings at all. If you go by the wind forecasts, then why wasn't there a warning out for Weds in to Thurs night? There was a stretch of around 8 - 10 hours of 45mph +, yet they're forecast shows the low 40's for around 3 hours. The weather maps and wind forecasts have always seemed correct during a warning, but not this time. It's extremely confusing.

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1 hour ago, wiltshire_weather said:

I think much of this region will miss out, been a long time lurker now. finally took the bullet and talked nice to meet you all North glos looks to be the best place in our region  

Welcome to the madhouse WW. You could get lucky in Wilts. The boundaries are all still to play for.

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2 hours ago, wiltshire_weather said:

I think much of this region will miss out, been a long time lurker now. finally took the bullet and talked nice to meet you all North glos looks to be the best place in our region  

Welcome to the thread :)

Edited by Zephyr
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A bit more detail..

A range of models and their pressure projections for here:

Saturday 9am:

press1.thumb.png.8e6f4f32caed70661d00f60316be3b00.png

Sunday 9am:

press2.thumb.png.f5a17173506efc2bc2eba605da4f0834.png

That's impressive!

Possible low 970's or maybe even a 969mb by Monday.

 

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Ok, it’s 2.40am, have had a very good night.. tried drawing rude words on the cars outside but it’s frozen solid so won’t work so I’m off to bed! Good night fellow south western peeps. 

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Latest GFS 0z still shows potential for some Monday snowfall for the region;

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.f3f908018932f1b7be217f23015a2fa8.png

Although it's not a particularly intense or long lasting fall so I doubt, taking this run at face value, much would settle away from the higher hills.

Worth noting, the UKMO & Arpege 0z runs have any PPN south of the South Coast on Monday.

Edited by AWD
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Quite possible that more northern parts of our region could see a rain to snow event tomorrow;

aromehd-42-31-0.thumb.png.b9107ec85324e28b6ac6ea4e2d25d35c.png

And once that mess has cleared through, perhaps the prospect of a little "left over" snow for some;

aromehd-42-41-0.thumb.png.5714e304086756edd6f444421a243c06.png

Before we turn our attention to Monday and that unlikely event.

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2 hours ago, AWD said:

Latest GFS 0z still shows potential for some Monday snowfall for the region;

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.f3f908018932f1b7be217f23015a2fa8.png

Although it's not a particularly intense or long lasting fall so I doubt, taking this run at face value, much would settle away from the higher hills.

Worth noting, the UKMO & Arpege 0z runs have any PPN south of the South Coast on Monday.

Where do you find UKMO precip charts AWD? Can’t find them anywhere

ECM looks good - no it doesn’t all that precip has now gone, what a surprise 

Edited by karlos1983
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