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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards


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if, on the off chance that we hit the jackpot sunday/monday then who fancies joining me on a recce into the Northern England Regional threads monday night to say "hello" and then do some serious gloat

I looked at this chart and proudly pronounced to the wife that she was getting 10-15cm tomorrow.....she just laughed  the old ones are the best......lol

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    I saw that bit! I need a laugh. Been a hell of a day. No bleeding time to look out side til now! Now i'm too knackered to get up to do any lamping ...

    2C970E62-E49E-461B-9CD1-0C9C329B5E83.thumb.png.fc658f62b146079175aa1c63d00f4875.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    1 minute ago, Karl83 said:

    Whatever you do, don't go checking the Met Office site for confirmation! :D

    Red Warning SW&SE.jpg

    Oooh la la!! If only aye!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    So how far south has the snow dropped for Sunday?

    I think I read 30-50 miles?

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    After all tonights event wouldn't you just know we got snow falling here. I'll stop chimping on now. Night all

    Edited by festivalking
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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Any idea whose now included for snow? The southern extent of it?

    I got scared at seeing that came on here! LOL! I can't go through that again! :-o

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Any idea whose now included for snow? The southern extent of it?

    Gloucester still but marginal away from cotswolds I think. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole Dorset
  • Location: Poole Dorset

    I think we have to be realistic here it doesn't matter one jot where the sliders end up and all that ppn coming up from the south west on Sunday the fact remains the temperatures here are projected to be 10 degrees and only 2 further north (midlands)  The brief period of possible snow on Monday looks unlikely for the far south again I don't believe our temperatures will be conducive for snow.  Howling winds and rain seems probable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    12 minutes ago, kent said:

    I think we have to be realistic here it doesn't matter one jot where the sliders end up and all that ppn coming up from the south west on Sunday the fact remains the temperatures here are projected to be 10 degrees and only 2 further north (midlands)  The brief period of possible snow on Monday looks unlikely for the far south again I don't believe our temperatures will be conducive for snow.  Howling winds and rain seems probable.

    Well nothing to back it up but im sure your probably on the money with that prediction :rofl::wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter snow
  • Location: Plymouth
    25 minutes ago, festivalking said:

    How unlucky is this!!! All passes half a mile away. It might be just rain and sleet but come on!

    Screenshot_20171208-225508.png

    Don’t worry fella I was directly under the pink and it was all rain ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Not posted for a while but the Met Office wind warning looks reasonable now based on this

    ukgust.pngukgust.png
    Guess they have better tools than the earlier GFS or are siding with other tools than the model that drives their symbol forecasts

    Anyway.. a weather report from earlier:

    Uppers of -8C: check. Land track of about 50 miles: Check. Showers of sleet/rain: Check...

    Funnily enough they were less wintry than a few light sleet/graupel/snow flurries early this afternoon (not enough to dampen the ground) even though it was 5-6C, with a max temp of 6.4C today.

    Apart from that, there's been a void with no shower development upstream which has now returned again, funny that.

    The temperature has fallen quite quick recently though and is now -1.2C

    Edited by Evening thunder
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    3 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

    Not posted for a while but the Met Office wind warning looks reasonable now based on this

    ukgust.pngukgust.png
    Guess they have better tools than the earlier GFS or are siding with other tools than the model that drives their symbol forecasts
     

    I agree if comparing GFS/other models to the MetO warning. What I cannot understand is their own wind forecasts - they don't match the warnings at all. If you go by the wind forecasts, then why wasn't there a warning out for Weds in to Thurs night? There was a stretch of around 8 - 10 hours of 45mph +, yet they're forecast shows the low 40's for around 3 hours. The weather maps and wind forecasts have always seemed correct during a warning, but not this time. It's extremely confusing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    1 hour ago, wiltshire_weather said:

    I think much of this region will miss out, been a long time lurker now. finally took the bullet and talked nice to meet you all North glos looks to be the best place in our region  

    Welcome to the madhouse WW. You could get lucky in Wilts. The boundaries are all still to play for.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A 35 - 40mb drop in pressure in under 24 hours for some places..

    press1.thumb.png.fed6c53981cc25f33fb672565aca3220.png press2.thumb.png.9670be946937729dc2a961f610b77051.png

    My record on this station is 29.1mb - I reckon that could go?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
    2 hours ago, wiltshire_weather said:

    I think much of this region will miss out, been a long time lurker now. finally took the bullet and talked nice to meet you all North glos looks to be the best place in our region  

    Welcome to the thread :)

    Edited by Zephyr
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A bit more detail..

    A range of models and their pressure projections for here:

    Saturday 9am:

    press1.thumb.png.8e6f4f32caed70661d00f60316be3b00.png

    Sunday 9am:

    press2.thumb.png.f5a17173506efc2bc2eba605da4f0834.png

    That's impressive!

    Possible low 970's or maybe even a 969mb by Monday.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    Ok, it’s 2.40am, have had a very good night.. tried drawing rude words on the cars outside but it’s frozen solid so won’t work so I’m off to bed! Good night fellow south western peeps. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Latest GFS 0z still shows potential for some Monday snowfall for the region;

    prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.f3f908018932f1b7be217f23015a2fa8.png

    Although it's not a particularly intense or long lasting fall so I doubt, taking this run at face value, much would settle away from the higher hills.

    Worth noting, the UKMO & Arpege 0z runs have any PPN south of the South Coast on Monday.

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Quite possible that more northern parts of our region could see a rain to snow event tomorrow;

    aromehd-42-31-0.thumb.png.b9107ec85324e28b6ac6ea4e2d25d35c.png

    And once that mess has cleared through, perhaps the prospect of a little "left over" snow for some;

    aromehd-42-41-0.thumb.png.5714e304086756edd6f444421a243c06.png

    Before we turn our attention to Monday and that unlikely event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Doesn't look great g or us us all round for snow prospects.. Sunday washout and Monday disappeared. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    2 hours ago, AWD said:

    Latest GFS 0z still shows potential for some Monday snowfall for the region;

    prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.f3f908018932f1b7be217f23015a2fa8.png

    Although it's not a particularly intense or long lasting fall so I doubt, taking this run at face value, much would settle away from the higher hills.

    Worth noting, the UKMO & Arpege 0z runs have any PPN south of the South Coast on Monday.

    Where do you find UKMO precip charts AWD? Can’t find them anywhere

    ECM looks good - no it doesn’t all that precip has now gone, what a surprise 

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Is it time to throw the towel in yet?

    :sorry:

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