South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

[khodds]

SM has just said wait until tomorrow runs, the models are trying to get a hold of this situation... it’s shaping up to be an interesting few weeks ahead, hopefully! 

[matt111]

Along with the short term I'm liking the look of the posts talking about beyond the next few day. 

[A.J]

If I had a pound for everytime someone said "next run/tomorrow's runs are crucial" I would be a very rich man.............rain for just about all of us on sunday, I've seen nothing in the outputs that have changed my mind....the parameters simply aren't conducive......not a moan folks, just an honest appraisal

[karlos1983]

Just now, matt111 said:

Along with the short term I'm liking the look of the posts talking about beyond the next few day. 

Ironically in went to like your post but I’m all out. 

long term this little spell looks timid! And that is underplaying it. January is proper winter and could bring us our best chance of a cold spell proper. High risk, but that’s the way I like it 

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Hello all, 

Long time, no speak, long time, no snow.

I'm quite hopeful. Those nearer the coast might struggle, granted but inland parts certainly deserve a dusting and I think it may just happen. 

Bring it on! 

 

 

 

Wow, here’s a blast from the past, good to see you back on the best thread around...

[karlos1983]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

If I had a pound for everytime someone said "next run/tomorrow's runs are crucial" I would be a very rich man.............rain for just about all of us on sunday, I've seen nothing in the outputs that have changed my mind....the parameters simply aren't conducive......not a moan folks, just an honest appraisal

sooo sensible AJ 

[matt111]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ironically in went to like your post but I’m all out. 

long term this little spell looks timid! And that is underplaying it. January is proper winter and could bring us our best chance of a cold spell proper. High risk, but that’s the way I like it 

As often posted high risk brings high reward if you get lucky. Of course it seems that 90% of the time that leaves us with nothing. 

[A.J]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

sooo sensible AJ 

????

[festivalking]

Niggles starting on the MAD thread north v south and all that. Strange really as we all know south is best ?

Us southerners though are usually resigned to having no snow water off a ducks no biggie but take snow away from the north.....

[Mapantz]

12 minutes ago, mrsmall said:

I think it’ll correct south. Every low system always does within the final 18-24 hrs. How many storms /systems forecast over us always end up over the channel. Keep the faith people. 

I made a post about that last week. You can bet your life that if it has something to do with snow, it will not correct South. lol

[matt111]

Just now, festivalking said:

Niggles starting on the MAD thread north v south and all that. Strange really as we all know south is best ?

Us southerners though are usually resigned to having no snow water off a ducks no biggie but take snow away from the north.....

With the odd wind up thrown in for good measure.... 

[khodds]

3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

????

He was joking AJ 

[khodds]

Ok, don’t know how it happened, but someone has drunk all my baileys! Own up.. who did it?! 

 

ok.. it may have been me but I blame netweather. 

[Dorsetbred]

30 minutes ago, khodds said:

On that note, I need my nightly Baileys tipple. Calm the nerves until the 00z runs

Look deeply into the bottle of Baileys tonight, to view the future...

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

????

 

3 minutes ago, khodds said:

He was joking AJ 

Yes was just a bit of humour, peace ✌️ 

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

Yes was just a bit of humour, peace ✌️ 

it's ok K, I just didn't understand the post.....thought you were doing a  'Tight Isobar' for a minute

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

it's ok K, I just didn't understand the post.....thought you were doing a  'Tight Isobar' for a minute

Lmao I’m not that intelligent/ interesting 

[A.J]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Lmao I’m not that intelligent/ interesting 

Just seen Nick Finnis's post with updated fax charts.....*interesting!*

[MidnightSnow]

There's far too much precipitation on Sunday for it to fall as snow down here. We're only allowed scraps in this neck of the woods and Friday fits the bill perfectly.

Edited December 6, 2017 by MidnightSnow

[khodds]

3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Just seen Nick Finnis's post with updated fax charts.....*interesting!*

I didn’t “get it” what does it mean? 

IGNORE ME! going mad - just re read it! 

Edited December 6, 2017 by khodds

[A.J]

Just now, khodds said:

I didn’t “get it” what does it mean? 

fax charts show general area of LP further SW....heaviest ppn near the triple point, the type of ppn falling on the sky would largely depend on the wet bulb temps

[festivalking]

So fax suggesting it' further south again but the warm sector slices through southern counties.  So still cold rain for the majority but Wiltshire could be the place

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by festivalking

[matt111]

From what I've read the 18z is cold, cold, cold. Wonder if we'd manage any decent snowfall out of that. Surely... 

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, matt111 said:

From what I've read the 18z is cold, cold, cold. Wonder if we'd manage any decent snowfall out of that. Surely... 

It’s not really the ideal setup for us southerners. Could be quite fruitful for tup north though like. Can’t remember -4 uppers and below in a northerly flow ever delivering snow down here, away from some modest altitude. Generally though going forward is good. I would urge some patience, we will get our chance. If a Scandi high of sorts sets up, we will likely do better than most. It’s on the table for sure.

[A.J]

just thought I'd drop in the following as it will hopefully be useful for forecasting potential ppn type.........

useful parameters to look for......... T850's, Thickness values (a way to describe this is the amount of atmosphere between sea-level and the T850/T500 boundaries)...dew points, Wet Bulb temps and freezing levels.............there's a good guide by NW 'guru' John Holmes in the learners area

a example of how snow can fall when at face value you wouldn't expect is where you'd have T850's of -1c to -2c, but with low thickness values (say 522) with wetbulbs and dewpoints hovering around 0C....likewise you could have T850's at -6C with thickness values of 536 with dewpoints/wet bulbs close to 0C and get nothing but a icy rain