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Another significantly above average month, in a long run of such months. Its been a good May temperature wise, but nothing exceptional, mind to get 2 consecutive days with maxima above 25 degrees isn't to be sniffed at. May on average ends the drier more often most settled period of the year when the atlantic goes into a bit of a slumber lasting roughly mid Feb - early June. We now enter a transitional phase, before the wet 6 month period of mid Aug - mid Feb begins.. Whilst September is often much warmer than May and indeed June on many occasion, I rank May far more highly, and above August for that matter, summer is May-July in the NW..

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As promised, here are the results. Monthly - Well done to Polar Gael getting it spot on while Mapantz was 0.2c out and Hammer50, DR(S)NO and seaside 60 each 0.3c out. Seasonal - All Change t

Well I want the coldest May on record so I'll go for 15C in the hope that I'm catastrophically wrong.

Years with at least one mean daily CET of 19.0 or higher 24-31 May, and what happened in those summers, plus three that came close to qualifying (1784 had two days above 18, 2012 had several, and 2003

Sunny Sheffield finishing at 12.8C unless there's a fluke heatwave overnight. +1C above normal. Spring finishes at 9.8C the 4th warmest. Can't comment about the rainfall as there are some showers on the radar which may or may not reach us.

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On 4/20/2017 at 11:37, Dami said:

I am going  for 12.8

I gotta be close at some point

:unknw:

 

not the best, but i'll take my 0.4

:D

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On 20/04/2017 at 15:21, Mapantz said:

13°C

Thank you please!

 
 

This looks to be the closest guess for May posted on time just 0.2 out

On 02/05/2017 at 01:27, Polar Gael said:

13.2C for me please. 

@Polar Gael was bang on but late so a penalty will be added

Edited by Summer Sun
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Here's an estimated update for the threatening threesome of non-human forecasters after their so-so May performances ...

_________________ APRIL 2017 ___________________ MAY 2017

FORECASTER ____ Fcst __ Error __ Points (rank) _____ Fcst __ Error __ Points estimated (rank)

Normal 1981-2010 __ 8.5 ___ -0.4 ___ 86.8 (9th) _______ 11.7 __ -1.5 ___ 49.0 (31st)

Normal 1987-2016 __ 8.8 ___ -0.1 ___ 98.4 (2nd) _______11.8 __ -1.4 ___ 52.0 (29th)

Consensus ________ 9.8 ___ +0.9 ___ 57.1 (27th) ______11.9 __ -1.3 ___ 55.0 (27th)

(previous stats below)

_________________ DEC 2016 ________  JAN 2017 ________  FEB 2017 _______ MAR 2017

FORECASTER ____ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk)

Normal 1981-2010 __4.6_-1.4_79.6 (21) __4.4_+0.4_69.9 (29) __4.4_-1.7_56.1 (36) __ 6.6_-2.1_59.0 (30)

Normal 1987-2016 __5.0_-1.0_89.8 (11) __ 4.6_+0.6_58.0 (40) __ 4.8_-1.3_67.4 (27) __ 6.7_-2.0_61.8 (28)

Consensus (median)_3.9_-2.1_50.0 (50)__ 3.9 _--0.1_95.7 (5) __ 4.3 _-1.8_52.4 (39) __ 6.5_-2.2_56.2 (32)

As explained earlier, ranks are equal to the first actual forecast submitted of equal error, in May this was always the same value as the mirror images (14.5 to 14.7) were not predicted by anyone (two forecasts were further above these so the ranks are determined by how many forecasts were in the range of each of the three to 14.0). Anyway, the rankings for the annual contest and seasonal (which will be identical as my assumption is to compare only against people who enter all months) are derived from the posted tables. Bear in mind also that these three have a slight advantage by getting their points from earliest entrant, for example there have been as many as six entrants tied with these values in previous months and the range of points can be as much as 10 -- this month there were just two entrants at each of 11.8 and 11.9, and one at 11.7, so not many points gained.

 

The average errors for these three and ranks will be edited in later (these are estimates until I have a chance to see the precise points, but the average absolute errors are already known). Ranks are currently estimated..

FORECASTER ________ TOTAL POINTS __ Rank ______ Average abs error __ Rank

1981-2010 normal _________ 400.4 ________ 7th ___________ 1.25 ________ 12th

last 30 years average ______ 427.4 ________ 5th ____________1.07 _________ 6th

Consensus (median) _______ 366.4 ________14th ___________1.40_________ 20th

Once again, these are only relative to those who entered all six months, so if you check the table you'll see that this is only a comparison against those who have played all months.

After April, only the top three were outperforming the average of the most recent 30 years (which is 1987-2016 but was 1986-2015 for December). This may increase to four or five after May. These tables will be updated when the scores are posted. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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As promised, here are the results.

Monthly - Well done to Polar Gael getting it spot on while Mapantz was 0.2c out and Hammer50, DR(S)NO and seaside 60 each 0.3c out.

Seasonal - All Change this month, with a brand new 1-2-3 vizzy2004, davehsug and Weather26.

Yearly - A slight change at the top with
1. davehsug (2nd last month),
2. I remember Atlantic 252 2nd (1st)
3. vizzy2004 (8th)

PDF and Excel versions available as per normal.

May 2017 CET.pdf

May 2017 CET.xlsx

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As I cannot edit my previous post, these tables are adjusted to the actual scoring data ...

 

_________________ APRIL 2017 ___________________ MAY 2017

FORECASTER ____ Fcst __ Error __ Points (rank) _____ Fcst __ Error __ Points (rank)

Normal 1981-2010 __ 8.5 ___ -0.4 ___ 86.8 (9th) _______ 11.7 __ -1.5 ___ 49.7 (31st)

Normal 1987-2016 __ 8.8 ___ -0.1 ___ 98.4 (2nd) _______11.8 __ -1.4 ___ 53.0 (29th)

Consensus ________ 9.8 ___ +0.9 ___ 57.1 (27th) ______11.9 __ -1.3 ___ 56.4 (27th)

(previous stats below)

_________________ DEC 2016 ________  JAN 2017 ________  FEB 2017 _______ MAR 2017

FORECASTER ____ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk)

Normal 1981-2010 __4.6_-1.4_79.6 (21) __4.4_+0.4_69.9 (29) __4.4_-1.7_56.1 (36) __ 6.6_-2.1_59.0 (30)

Normal 1987-2016 __5.0_-1.0_89.8 (11) __ 4.6_+0.6_58.0 (40) __ 4.8_-1.3_67.4 (27) __ 6.7_-2.0_61.8 (28)

Consensus (median)_3.9_-2.1_50.0 (50)__ 3.9 _--0.1_95.7 (5) __ 4.3 _-1.8_52.4 (39) __ 6.5_-2.2_56.2 (32)

As explained earlier, ranks are equal to the first actual forecast submitted of equal error, in May this was always the same value as the mirror images (14.5 to 14.7) were not predicted by anyone (two forecasts were further above these so the ranks are determined by how many forecasts were in the range of each of the three to 14.0). Anyway, the rankings for the annual contest and seasonal (which will be identical as my assumption is to compare only against people who enter all months) are derived from the posted tables. Bear in mind also that these three have a slight advantage by getting their points from earliest entrant, for example there have been as many as six entrants tied with these values in previous months and the range of points can be as much as 10 -- this month there were just two entrants at each of 11.8 and 11.9, and one at 11.7, so not many points gained.

 

Annual rankings against only those who have entered all six months ... (in brackets, including those who have missed one month).

 

FORECASTER ________ TOTAL POINTS __ Rank ______ Average abs error __ Rank

1981-2010 normal _________ 401.1 ________ 8th (10th) _____ 1.25 ________ t 10th (t 12th)

last 30 years average ______ 428.4 ________ 2nd (3rd) ______ 1.07 _________t 7th (t 8th)

Consensus (median) _______ 367.8 ________12th (14th) _____ 1.40_________ t 14th (t 17th)

What the above tells us is that by predicting just the last 30 years average, you would be third in the contest at this point on points and seventh on average error. The 1981-2010 normals and consensus do not do quite as well. But they all do better than me so perhaps I should pick one of these and go with it. 

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With the May CET confirmed at 13.2, we find 2017 in 6th place just behind tied 1998 and 2002 in the annual CET to date, and this table shows a projection of where these years stood after June. With the warmest June on record, 1846 moved into second place behind 2007 which maintained its lead. Other years that moved into top twelve after June (1775, 1822 and 1868) are shown in the table unranked for Jan to May. Only years still in top twelve are ranked after June.  Not shown in table, 1992 was tied 13th with 2011 at 9.10 after June.

The table shows where 2017 will stand after June for 14.0, 14.5, 15.0, 15.5 and 16.0 outcomes.  

RANK _ YEAR __ mean Jan to May __ after June (2017 _ 14.0 _ 14.5 _ 15.0 _ 15.5 _ 16.0)

__ 1 ___ 2007 ________ 8.62 _________ 9.70 (1)

__ 2 ___ 1990 ________ 8.54 _________ 9.38 (5)

__ 3 ___ 2014 ________ 8.38 _________ 9.50 (3)

_ t 4 ___ 1998 ________ 8.24 _________ 9.23 (10)

_ t 4 ___ 2002 ________ 8.24 _________ 9.27 (9)

__ 6 ___ 2017 ________ 8.22 _________ 9.18 (12) _ 9.27 (9) _ 9.35 (6) _ 9.44 (5) _ 9.52 (2)

__ 7 ___ 2011 ________ 8.16 _________ 9.10 (t13)

_  t 8 _1686,1834,1999 _ 8.10 _________ 9.33 (6), 9.32 (7), 9.07 (t15)

_t 11 _1733,1779,1961 _ 8.00 _________ 9.20 (11) , 9.07, 9.07 (t15)

______ 1822 _________ 7.96 _________ 9.48 (4)

______ 1868 _________ 7.84 _________ 9.12 (12)

______ 1775 _________ 7.82 _________ 9.28 (8)

______ 1846 _________ 7.78 _________ 9.52 (2)

_________________________________________________________________

2017 will need about 17.3 June to move into first place.

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Bit late....Had a really warm last 10 days of May..which pushed the final total to 12.0c which is +0.2c above normal....Ave high = 20.4c Ave low = 3.6c 

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