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As promised, here are the results. Monthly - Well done to Polar Gael getting it spot on while Mapantz was 0.2c out and Hammer50, DR(S)NO and seaside 60 each 0.3c out. Seasonal - All Change t

Well I want the coldest May on record so I'll go for 15C in the hope that I'm catastrophically wrong.

Years with at least one mean daily CET of 19.0 or higher 24-31 May, and what happened in those summers, plus three that came close to qualifying (1784 had two days above 18, 2012 had several, and 2003

11.1C here to the 16th, 0.6c above the 1981-2010 average.

Next 5 days looking a bit more average than of late so any significant changes looking unlikely.

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I would say looking at GFS 12z the average will drift down a bit by Monday 22nd then drift back up again, probably won't be far from 11.5 at any point throughout the next ten days. Last 4-5 days could swing it either way so finishing point most likely to be 11 to 12.5 based on that one model run. 

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I think it all depends on the night temps, some runs have shown them dropping to mid single figures for a few nights on the trot, probably OTT though for this time of the year.

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Sunny Sheffield at 10.8C -1C below normal. Should be rise tomorrow as tonight's unlikely to be cold. Going to a push to get to average though as time runs out.

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 10.8C -1C below normal. Should be rise tomorrow as tonight's unlikely to be cold. Going to a push to get to average though as time runs out.

11.8c seems quite a high mean for Sheffield, is this figure from your data or MetO averages?

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Looks like things could be warming up a lot more than was expected by the weekend and into next week on this mornings runs, so we might be heading higher after a temporary blip after all.

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11.2c here to the 18th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

A drop likely tomorrow, but after that its all looking above average.

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11.2c here to the 20th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

Mean Max: 15.4c (+0.4c)

Mean Min: 6.9c (+0.9c)

Looking at the models we are going to see a significant rise this coming week, so another month above average looking a certainty.

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Yesterdays GFS runs gave me an average CET for the last ten days of May of around 15.8c, this would have resulted in a final CET figure for the month of close to 13c, so quite a big rise. Today temps are looking not quite as high, still warm and pleasant though on a whole but likely turning cooler again as we go into June, but I reckon that we could still end up at around 12.6 or 12.7c.

It will be interesting to see how close we get to 13c, if Hadley comes back on line that is. A big rise is surely on the cards from here on so another month will end up well above average.

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Now looking more likely to finish in the mid-12 range (after corrections) with a warmer outlook. Would say about 12.7 from current charts. 

Nah I think 12.9 c sounds better lol...:)

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