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As promised, here are the results. Monthly - Well done to Polar Gael getting it spot on while Mapantz was 0.2c out and Hammer50, DR(S)NO and seaside 60 each 0.3c out. Seasonal - All Change t

Well I want the coldest May on record so I'll go for 15C in the hope that I'm catastrophically wrong.

Years with at least one mean daily CET of 19.0 or higher 24-31 May, and what happened in those summers, plus three that came close to qualifying (1784 had two days above 18, 2012 had several, and 2003

My usual table of entries will be delayed to about 0400h as we're enjoying a nice sunny day here.

Meanwhile I have revised way down on my earlier guess and it's now 10.6 C. Looked earlier like a southeast flow but now looking more east to northeast, a cold enough direction to scrap the above normal punt. 

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Table of forecasts now posted:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=7

As of 0500h 2nd, we have 60 forecasts, including six that were one day late, and one that is two days late -- the median value has changed to 11.85 C and will be scored as 11.9 C. The following values remain untaken if you want your own spot ...

(warm outliers 17.5, 14.0, 13.8, 13.5, 13.2) ... 13.4, 13.3 and 13.1 are untaken.

then all between 10.1 and 13.0 except 10.3, 10.4, 10.5, 10.7, and 12.7.

anything 10.0 or colder remains untaken. 

Later forecasts will be added to the table and this list will be edited. 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes

 

DATE ____ AVG __ CUM AVG _______ MAX yr ___ MIN yr (extremes 1772-2016)

___ 01 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.6 ________16.1 1990,2005 _ 4.2 1866

___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979

___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.5 __________ 17.7 1990 __ 3.1 1877

___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877

___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 4.0 1979

___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.8 1867 __ 4.4 1831

___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 16.8 2008 __ 4.1 1879

___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.8 2016 __ 2.9 1861

___ 09 ___ 10.7 ___ 10.7 _______ 17.6 1945,2016 _ 5.7 1837

___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.1 1879

___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.6 2008 __ 4.1 1773

___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816

___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.8 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.0 1915

___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839

___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839

___ 16 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996

___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935

___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.1 1952 __ 4.1 1872

___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.4 1868 __ 5.2 1872

___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.8 1916 __ 5.5 1907

___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1916 __ 5.7 1894

___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.5 1918 __ 5.0 1867

___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 4.9 1867

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867

___ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4 __________ 21.0 1953 __ 6.5 1814

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 __________ 18.7 1784 __ 4.6 1821

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.2 1869

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.2 1869 ___ (note 21.1 1944, 20.8 1947)

___ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 ___ (note 19.9 1947)

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802

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10.7c to the 3rd here, 0.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

Next 5 days looking average to slightly below so not much change expected.

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Sunny Sheffield just outside the CET zone now at 10.3C could be quite a cold night looking at the dew point so could possibly drop tomorrow.

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12.3°C (+0.5) here.

Mean min: 7.2°C (-0.7). Mean max: 17.3°C (+1.7). 

Edited by Chris.R
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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield just outside the CET zone now at 10.3C could be quite a cold night looking at the dew point so could possibly drop tomorrow.

But still not in the CET zone. Lolz

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10.4c here to the 4th, 0.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

First time we've been below average here in a while, should stay that way too if the BBC forecast temps are correct.

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