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Roger J Smith

April 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

26 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

 

April CET statistics and trivia

... new feature, all of the past ten CET values are in the table, highlighted in bold.

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)
16.3 ... warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945)

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... 5th warmest April (1798)

10.3 ... 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... CET for 2014 (tied 8th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

10.1 ... 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, most recent was 2009)

 9.1 ... average for 2007-16 (past ten Aprils)
 9.0 ... average for 2001-2016, 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) and 2015 CET

 8.9 ... average for 1991-2016 (this new feature tracks the evolving 1991-2020 normal)

 8.8 ... average for 1987-2016 and 2010 CET
 8.7 ... average for 1986-2015
 8.5 ... average for 1981-2010
 8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000)
 8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900

 7.9 ... average for all data 1659-2016, also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800, 2008 CET

 7.5 ... 2013 and 2016 CET
 7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

 7.2 ... 2012 CET

 5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

--0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
--0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

_________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast for APRIL 2017 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Friday 31st March in other words) or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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9.6c please.

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8.1°, slightly below average, I expect mostly N or E winds

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9.1°C

Thank you please!

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8.3C please

 

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10.7C for me please. 

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Looks like my repeated very low guesses are failing miserably. Let's go for something different, how about second warmest on record? 11.6C please.

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14C  :(  Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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I'll plump for 12.9C please...:D

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I'll go with a warmer, sunnier and slightly drier April this year, with an heatwave around or near Easter, similar to 1949 or 2003. 9.3C, please!

Edited by LetItSnow!

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When thinking about it I was alway's going to go higher (a lot higher) it looks like I'm not alone going by what people have guessed so far

I'll go for 11.9c please

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8.2c for me please.

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I'll punt for 9.5C however i don't think this will be a month that pleases most people with the month getting progressively colder (relative to average) and wetter. I'd not rule out the first half being warmer than the second.

Although i'm optimistic for a warm summer period this year (so it won't be as bad as 2012), i think that this month is when the settled period will break for quite some time. 

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Away next week so must guess now.

Having been well below over the last 3 months am going to give it the kiss of death and go over average.

So my guess is 9.4c  please.

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11.2 please.

 

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