Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Chris.R]

 Only around a week ago the models were showing the CET in the upper 7s by today whereas in fact we are still at 9.1. 

[knocker]

Still remaining dry, even arid in Scotland

Edited April 30, 2017 by knocker

[NorthYorksWeather]

As an all year round cold weather lover, charts like this have me drooling!

GFS showing potential for white stuff falling up North and some air frosts for many early to Mid May.

Lets just hope we don't use up all our Northern Blocking yearly allowance and there's some left over for December.

[Frosty.]

I think confidence is growing for a cooler /colder shot from the NE during week 2 with NEly winds, night frosts and even some northern hill / mountain snow..just using the GEFS 6z mean as an example but the met office are also on-board with the cooler shot with a retrogressive pattern. 

Edited April 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Looks fairly disappointing really....you can always count on a monster northern block in spring when we don't want it, and some half baked effort during the winter. Looks like that easterly will really take the edge off here, west will certainly be best for the next 10 days.

[Sardonixs]

Looking at the NOAA height anomaly charts they are going for the high to move away to the west post day 10:

 

If this sort of scenario verifies then the main question would be would this allow a more unsettled westerly setup to take over or will high-pressure be influential enough from the south to keep things settled?

 

 

[Snowy L]

4 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

As an all year round cold weather lover, charts like this have me drooling!

GFS showing potential for white stuff falling up North and some air frosts for many early to Mid May.

Lets just hope we don't use up all our Northern Blocking yearly allowance and there's some left over for December.

That's not cold though, that's 8C with rain showers for most places except mountains. Don't know how anyone could like that any time of the year but each to their own.

[knocker]

The gfs moves towards a colder start next week as the trough to the east takes closer order. The question is delicately poised as to if and when the trough to the south west can make inroads.

[Frosty.]

Really stunning wintry synoptics on the Gfs 12z with night frosts and even some snow for northern hills.

Edited April 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[NorthYorksWeather]

24 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That's not cold though, that's 8C with rain showers for most places except mountains. Don't know how anyone could like that any time of the year but each to their own.

Yes not exactly cold I agree, what I should of put is I'm an colder than average weather lover all year round.

GFS is solid as a rock with the Greenie High and NE'rly.

If it was January it would go BAPS up but because its May is nailed.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Bank Holiday Everyone.!  Some useful rain for some in the south over the next 24 hrs  but that really looks about it as a large anticyclone builds quickly early this week and a return too chilly winds from the north-east probably with a lot of cloud , Best in the West!!! Very interesting synoptics in the next 8/9 days according to gfs , these are absolute perfect Winter synoptics ,its a shame its come so late!  According to the gfs Britain will be colder on May 8th than Greenland  How often can you say that??? A long way off ,but certainly worrying for gardeners and growers alike as the trend for continuing dry and potential cold conditions look likely in the first half of May. Untill there is a change of synoptics  ,which is not yet indicated a pretty dire outlook for some seasonal warmth....

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

That's not cold though, that's 8C with rain showers for most places except mountains. Don't know how anyone could like that any time of the year but each to their own.

The average temperature around these parts in January is 6c/43f  so 8c for May is exceptionally cold , although that could all change given model unreliability that far out

[knocker]

Still the ecm is giving a max of 20C, could be 22C, for Glasgow on Sunday.

[Allseasons-Si]

A thing of beauty..........IN WINTER

now let's get this silly nonsense out of the way and enjoy some nice weather.

[snowray]

If some of these charts verify it will be colder in mid May in many places than it was in Dec and Jan, but don't be surprised if you even see some snow, this is what often happens in the UK and our mad weather. My worry is the likelihood of more damaging frosts to come. 

[Matthew.]

Maybe it's time to take our chips and run

[ANYWEATHER]

And the Ecm continues the trend along with Gfs  at the 8 to 10 period of Northern Blocking , sending some serious cold for this time of year to the British Isles , whilst Greenland warms,, cant wait to here from the Climate Change Gang , who will say the North Pole is Melting....

[knocker]

As the thread has once again swiftly segued into winter mode and is palpitating over ecm day 10 charts the question is which way will the dice role. Max temps are 16C in SE England and the two troughs are poised. Oh I can't wait to see.....

[snowray]

Lots of milder solutions there on the ensembles though.

[Scorcher]

Just for a bit of balance, here is the ECM 12Z chart for the end of the reliable time frame- it doesn't look that bad to me, particularly being on the west side of the country. No worries about frosts or hill snow from that chart. In fact we are picking up some slightly warmer uppers by that point according to the ECM.

Yes the charts at Day 10 do look horrendous, but will it happen as is being modelled at the moment? Almost certainly not. The phantom warm spell which was showing for this week disappeared very quickly. Let's hope this supposed cold spell does too.

Edited April 30, 2017 by Scorcher

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello Scorcher. Thanks for your post  but there is general concenus of chilly to cold weather during the next ten days , Im sure it will warm up before Christmas

[I remember Atlantic 252]

25 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Just for a bit of balance, here is the ECM 12Z chart for the end of the reliable time frame- it doesn't look that bad to me, particularly being on the west side of the country. No worries about frosts or hill snow from that chart. In fact we are picking up some slightly warmer uppers by that point according to the ECM.

Yes the charts at Day 10 do look horrendous, but will it happen as is being modelled at the moment? Almost certainly not. The phantom warm spell which was showing for this week disappeared very quickly. Let's hope this supposed cold spell does too.

was about to post something like this, Yes, looks decent for the weekend, and I hope the cold spell downgrades in deep FI, I am a big snow fan, but my area looks like seeing none, any snow will only be for northern hills, just like a typical January northerly

[Summer Sun]

37 minutes ago, snowray said:

Lots of milder solutions there on the ensembles though.

 

8th to 13th ish the GFS op is clearly on the cold side of the mean too

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello Scorcher. Thanks for your post  but there is general concenus of chilly to cold weather during the next ten days , Im sure it will warm up before Christmas

It does appear that colder weather is favourite right now, but I will believe it completely when those charts come into the reliable time frame, which is still some way off.

Edit: And indeed the GFS 18Z has already backed away from the horrendous charts shown earlier in FI- will be interesting to see what happens in the morning.

Edited April 30, 2017 by Scorcher

[Allseasons-Si]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

This is the time of year where I like milder / warmer solutions. In fact I hope we see some decent plumes this year!

Well,according to the 18z gfs we might not have to wait too long frosty,funnerly the 18z pushes the colder air more westwards(west based NAO) allowing air to be pumped up from the south and with it a risk of some storms coming up from the continent,miles better than the 12z suit