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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

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3 hours ago, legritter said:

Evening gang ,Some interest at the end of tonights ECM but got a gut feeling that its the carrot dangler ,I have not given up on a good northerly blast ,i,v been lurking and reading the posts most days ,Certainly quiet on this forum ,reflects the weather ,lets hope we get a late blast of wintry heaven ,cheers gang :yahoo:

Keep the faith legritter, I've not given up either on some wintry excitement as there is still plenty of time for snow and frosts.:)

I noticed there is some snow on the Gfs 18z for some northern areas later in the week..good for some skiing on the scottish mountains.

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Edited by Frosty.
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As I'm sure everyone is aware high pressure is set to dominate in the southern half of the UK this week whilst the north remains fairly windy with the odd inclement outbreak courtesy of the Atlantic. That is until Thursday when the upper trough over the eastern seaboard spawns a little low which deepens and  tracks east be over Scotland by Friday bringing rain (snow on the mountains) and quite strong winds to the north as the high pressure is temporarily relegated south west.

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I say temporarily as this does herald a brief period where the energy and troughs tracking east gain some ascendancy in the never ending warm.cold interactions  This results in a windy and wet weekend in the strong westerly airstream before a new low tracks rapidly north east across the Atlantic to be Faeroe's by midnight Tuesday. with associated fronts bringing more wet and windy weather.

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From here it's question of, will the Azores make a spirited comeback?

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Although the ecm also has a slight hiatus next weekend and the beginning of next week it is not so emphatic regarding the Atlantic intrusion and relegating the role of the HP

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.41ccc07c49563010f20c87ccedc2997b.png

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Significant differences between ECM and UKMO this morning

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Now that ECM has suddenly come up with something different we're going to need more runs before we can call the weekend

It wouldn't be the 1st time ECM has found a new pattern ahead of the rest

Edited by Summer Sun
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The differences between this morning's det runs may well just be down to the interpretation of the phasing/timing of the cold/warm air interaction as the runs progress.

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.7a2284c2ddf3add0346a533a00a07352.png

Edited by knocker
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The Gfs 00z still shows a risk of some snow later this week across the hills / mountains of northern uk so some welcome snowfalls for the scottish skiing industry who have endured a very poor season..hope they see an upturn in fortunes while there is still time!

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The models don't appear to be keen on keeping things unsettled for too long:

gfs-0-144.png?6gfs-0-216.png?6

From low to high pressure again in 3 days. All have variations on a theme, but looking like a few cooler days before back to average.

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npst30.png  npst30.png npst30.png

A consistent feature of recent GFS runs is for a region of anomalously warm stratospheric temperatures to move across Greenland by Friday and then drift slowly toward Iceland over the following week, where it facilitates a stratospheric ridge. The tendency for high pressure to build back in after a changeable start next week looks to be at least partially in response to this. It is very uncertain, though, to what extent we might see a bit of MJO activity working with or against a ridge in our vicinity - but ECM is keen on having a quiet MJO for the foreseeable and GEFS have backed off recently so it could well be that the stratospheric forcing gets to dominate proceedings. 

It's interesting to see how resilient the vortex is this year despite being so persistently displaced toward Siberia. It makes me wonder whether the severely damaged thermal inversion over the Arctic has made it less 'inviting' to the vortex as a mostly weak but unusually persistent vertical transport of energy drives pulse after pulse of stratospheric warming. Meanwhile Siberia is able to retain an inversion setup due to being a solid land area, making it suitable for a lengthy stay of the vortex core.

I'd wondered whether Greenland could act as an alternative home once the Arctic inversion was lost, but it seems the typical movement of the weak stratospheric warming works against this.

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The next few weeks looks like a fluid weather pattern, generally changeable with some settled weather at times, mainly further south (most of this week for example looks settled & mild further south) but we can also expect some unsettled spells too, especially further n / nw. As for temperatures, generally around average, swinging between above and below the seasonal average, cold enough at times for night frosts and for snow on hills / mountains, particularly further north (Scotland)..pretty normal mid / late March conditions on the whole.

Edited by Frosty.
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We are going through a pretty quiet period currently and the next few days continues with a fairly benign outlook,pretty dry away from the far north and quite mild.

Looking towards Thursday onwards things do seem set to change as Atlantic mobility picks up again driving fronts across us and bringing in some lower temperatures.

Fax for Thursday shows the coming change

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The high being squeezed away with some unsettled weather for at least a few days,more especially further north closer to the low pressure moving across towards Scandinavia.

It's interesting to note the large difference in temperatures between N.Scotland and C.and S.England that are often seen in March either side of the jet.

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A sharp drop in values as the cold front comes through so likely snow squalls higher up in the north and maybe lower down up there as freezing levels drop behind the passage of the front.

With the jet looking like wavering across the UK in the medium term there could be more interest as temperatures and wind direction vary day on day as at this time of year the Arctic cold is still just to our north as it battles with the Azores high for supremacy.

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I'm surprised it's so quiet on here, some interesting model output and a wide variety of weather is expected during the next few weeks..it's such a shame that there has been a mass exodus and we are not even mid way through March.

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I think most have fled now looking for warmth, after what a lot of people considered another disastrous winter in terms of snow, or even if clinging on for hope have lost interest due to how close we are to spring

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hmm a move towards ECM from UKMO?

12z                                                                00z

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ECM 00z

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Edited by Summer Sun
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20 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

I think most have fled now looking for warmth, after what a lot of people considered another disastrous winter in terms of snow, or even if clinging on for hope have lost interest due to how close we are to spring

Hopefully things will pick up when the first proper warm spell arrives but in the meantime, the model output isn't dull viewing and the next few weeks should prove interesting with quite a mobile pattern and temps up and down.:)

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12z continues the theme of the unsettled period from the end of this week through until early next week not really having too much bite to it - more typical sunshine and showers than an absolute washout for most. Some of the usual spots over Cumbria and NW Scotland could see a bit more in the way of rainfall, but drying out by the middle of next week. Typical early spring weather really....

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For the bulk of England and Wales it turns milder again through the weekend - below are the minimum temps

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Some rain around but the more favoured places could well be the west with those in the east seeing less rain

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Friday could be the wettest day this week as a band of rain is shown to move down from the north/northwest

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ECM 12z sticking to it's 00z run with nothing too bad for the weekend now the deep lows seem to be staying north of us - some wind and rain yes but also some drier spells not a washout by any means

Recm961.thumb.gif.244567a203e3b19aeff12f0edf762f44.gifRecm1201.thumb.gif.3692f96bdb86bd33184a40ca9163b7b3.gifRecm1441.thumb.gif.c2b6cb7b9951d5ce4316eea8185806ca.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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I heard there is a chance of 18c 64f in parts of the s / se tomorrow afternoon and looking at the Ecm 12z I can believe it..a nice taste of early spring warmth and the midweek chart looks excellent too for many. Further ahead it becomes more changeable and less mild although thurs / sat look mild further south and cold air flirts with the far north at times.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Looking at UKMO the bulk of any rain at the weekend and early next week is likely to be in the west some will make it to the east at times but less frequent

ukm2.2017031812_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.bae58c651230e368669d95eb2eaa8900.pngukm2.2017031912_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.03c8c8ecbb230694c2465327c5383c42.pngukm2.2017032012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3dda70446149645b863fed944b0918b7.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Hopefully things will pick up when the first proper warm spell arrives but in the meantime, the model output isn't dull viewing and the next few weeks should prove interesting with quite a mobile pattern and temps up and down.:)

Models are showing a very typical westerly pattern, azores high exerting influence, PV locked to the NW, rather classic default conditions, hence reason many have deserted the forum, especially at this time of year, such conditions bring very non-descript weather with little in the way of interest in terms of a break from the norm. 

From a personal perspective the current synoptics make for rather dull viewing, but more interesting than a high pressure slapped across us, or even worse just to our NW, with cloud invading the country on a mild NW wind. Traditionally as we move through the second half of March the PV finally breaks down and we shake up the northern hemispheric base winter state in exchange for more interesting non-westerly type airstreams through April and May, when a cold northerly/northeasterly, cyclonic spell, or indeed southerly plume can spring up from nowhere.

In the meantime, its a case of watching the sea-saw action of the azores high and the atlantic trough, northern parts most unsettled with some heavy bouts of rain later in the week and trending chilly, southern parts staying fairly dry and mild in the main. 

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4 hours ago, Essex Easterly said:

I think most have fled now looking for warmth, after what a lot of people considered another disastrous winter in terms of snow, or even if clinging on for hope have lost interest due to how close we are to spring

Youre probably right , but March is the most fickle of months and Mr Winter Wants Mr Spring to obey orders .....and what do you get.....A Fight!!!

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22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at UKMO the bulk of any rain at the weekend and early next week is likely to be in the west so will make it to the east at times but less frequent

ukm2.2017031812_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.bae58c651230e368669d95eb2eaa8900.pngukm2.2017031912_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.03c8c8ecbb230694c2465327c5383c42.pngukm2.2017032012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3dda70446149645b863fed944b0918b7.png

Agreed, all in all its not looking bad and this current very mild and largely settled spell is most welcome.:)

Tomorrow will be locally warm in the east and south..The first mention of warm makes me think of the summer to come.

Edited by Frosty.
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Not much point in me adding superfluous comment vis the medium term so a quick look to see where we stand regarding the 10-15 day period.

 NOAA has moved in the direction of the GEFs and EPS so though not total agreement. which one wouldn't expect anyway. they are all on the same page. Vortex in the Pole area with asociated trough Greenland and north west Atlantic. Some disagreement on the orientation of the latter that resonates downstream to some extent. `By this I mean the somewhat complex NE ridging of the Azores over the UK combined with the trough to the east tending to positively tilt to the south of the UK. At the moment all three have their own ideas and it will be interesting to see how this pans out. I suspect the percentage play is for the pattern to move east.

If this evolves near to this scenario then it would indicate a spell of more settled weather with temps returning to average or even a little above.

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Beautiful Gfs 18z low res with high pressure becoming dominant ..pleasantly warm too in the strengthening late march sunshine..lovely:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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7 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The first mention of warm makes me think of the summer to come.

Mild and wet for sure :(

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