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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

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A quick look at the ECM ens suggests temps around or above average for the next 10 days in the south

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Maybe becoming a bit cooler in Scotland later next week

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We are approaching the time of year when the raging Atlantic storms start to die off as the polar jet begins its retreat north and the warmth starts to overpower the cold.

After a couple of average days on Sunday/Monday, the high pressure and warmer air really starts to work its magic:

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Mid teens for a few days in places, before the orientation of the wind flow is all important. GFS and ECM turn it chilly on Friday as some cold air spills down.....but the detail of this is a week away.

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11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We are approaching the time of year when the raging Atlantic storms start to die off as the polar jet begins its retreat north and the warmth starts to overpower the cold.

After a couple of average days on Sunday/Monday, the high pressure and warmer air really starts to work its magic:

Rmgfs1084.gifRmgfs1324.gifRmgfs1564.gif

Mid teens for a few days in places, before the orientation of the wind flow is all important. GFS and ECM turn it chilly on Friday as some cold air spills down.....but the detail of this is a week away.

Goodness me, nearly four months of incorrect forecasts then!! The 15 day plus models have consistently wanted something colder, but the models inside 10 days have consistently batted away blocks that could have been put us in a cold place. Looks like another above average month coming up now. Could even be a truly spring like month in the south if the Azores High continues to ridge in from the SW. A very good chance of getting close to 70F on the odd day as those high pressures pull away to our east, especially the more the month goes on.

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39 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Goodness me, nearly four months of incorrect forecasts then!! The 15 day plus models have consistently wanted something colder, but the models inside 10 days have consistently batted away blocks that could have been put us in a cold place. Looks like another above average month coming up now. Could even be a truly spring like month in the south if the Azores High continues to ridge in from the SW. A very good chance of getting close to 70F on the odd day as those high pressures pull away to our east, especially the more the month goes on.

GFS 06z low Resolution says spring on hold with wintry/snow showers spreading south.

The story of winter though all FI and unlikely to verify.

C.S. 

 

Edited by cheshire snow
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Most of next week looks very spring like on the Gfs 6z, at least across England and Wales with high pressure, largely fine, mild / very mild with variable clouds and sunny spells, more changeable and less mild further north.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Continuing with that theme. High pressure dominates next week with the jet forced north and thus settled and quite warm, the exception being Scotland with systems sneaking around the HP. Temps will be above average but cloud the usual imponderable and thus influencing the diurnal variation. The end of the week sees the beginning of the change with the HP slipping east, the jet south and the entrance of the next trough and more Atlantic influence, certainly by Monday. But overall we are still looking at much the same pattern with the phasing of the energy driven cooler air air tracking east and the Azores high pressure being the key so interpretation of this is still open to run to run variations in the later time frames

gfs_uv250_natl_19.thumb.png.34f60cb6657740a68b74d763f9c33e5f.pnggfs_uv250_natl_31.thumb.png.a3532c3c5de123c665299121ece7afe2.pnggfs_z500a_natl_37.thumb.png.98d5a0285fcc5fc1c9f0d4ad7ddb1653.png

Edited by knocker
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Going along with a possible trend that has been indicated of late of the trough taking closer order towards the end of ten days which may herald some more unsettled weather with temps dipping below average.

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Seemingly winter has gone out on a whimper what a sterile climate we have, March is certain to be another above average month. Winter fans not to return till autumn 2017 where the arduous chase starts again. Anyway it does turn quite warm at the end of GFS 06z southerly winds dragging up some 'plumey' warmth. Easter skiing in the Alps in doubt if this is to be believed. 

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3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Seemingly winter has gone out on a whimper what a sterile climate we have, March is certain to be another above average month. Winter fans not to return till autumn 2017 where the arduous chase starts again. Anyway it does turn quite warm at the end of GFS 06z southerly winds dragging up some 'plumey' warmth. Easter skiing in the Alps in doubt if this is to be believed. 

IMG_2057.thumb.PNG.44211fc45c50c8d30ebe13550a397cbb.PNGIMG_2058.thumb.PNG.6b2364b452d2b4cb9ac5ad5125be2ae1.PNG

 
 

A D16 chart, yes or no or maybe but to my mind, WHATEVER. Nearer to hand, tonight's ECM shows some wintry potential from around t+120 hours, i.e., 16th March onwards. I'm hopeful for an atypical cooler spell taking hold before the real warmth returns say mid-April or thereabouts. Either way, I trust a dreadfully cold numbing spell aka March 2013 shouldn't be happening anytime soon. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Not really surprising there isn't much debate in here! After midweek things look to be going downhill once more, with low pressure becoming dominant, with some wind and rain for all. Perhaps a dusting over high ground, but frankly it just looks miserable on the whole!

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Looking at UKMO the high gradually sinks further south later next week allowing west or north-westerly winds to move in so temps starting to ease down - some rain around but not a complete washout

ukm2.2017031612_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.20ab6374e79c744b1a846368c8087442.pngukm2.2017031712_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.b17ef9d9488872d6a35eaee732322489.pngukm2.2017031812_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.29c40c7a229604a9e43d9a66084ee6fe.png

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With a spell of tropical maritime air moving NE around the ridging Azores high we are looking at quite a mild and dry few days but with a lot of cloud around.

A look at some ECM charts up to Thursday showing the general setup.

ECM1-48.GIF?11-0ECM1-96.GIF?11-0ECM1-120.GIF?11-0

The middle chart-for Wednesday- currently looks the best for a chance of some of the cloud breaking up with spells of warm sunshine.We could get temperatures in the high teens in some favoured southern locations if this happens i would think.

We can already see from the last chart though the approach of fronts from further north which looks like heralding a change to rather colder and more changeable conditions towards the end of the coming week as Icelandic low pressure heads east towards Scandinavia.This change looks more widespread on the UK charts at T144hrs than the other 2 with a sharper dig of the upper trough

 UE144-21.GIF?11-17gfs-0-144.png?12ECM1-144.GIF?11-0

so the impact of any change is still to be agreed between the big 3 come day 6. although there are tangible signs of some retreat of the Azores high as the jet eases south around next week end.

Edited by phil nw.
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Pressure falling next week seems a good bet at this range the ECM ens does show the Op is over cooking the low 1003mb as opposed to 994mb

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Indications continue from the GEFs and the EPS lasr evening and this morning of the trough to the NW/N taking closer order from around the 19th with the Azores HP retrogressing SW. Thus an upper flow from a more westerly quadrant and more generally unsettled weather, rather than the N/S split of this week, with temps dipping below average for a few days. Having said that the EPS is rather more keen on that scenario than the GEFs and this morning's gfs det. run only makes a very brief sortie as well

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So the detail for the week from the gfs. High pressure ridges NE over the UK and moves steadily east pushing the jet north and initiating the aforementioned N/S split as the north tends to receive the impact of systems tracking around the high pressure. Temps generally above average.

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From here things get a little more complicated. The mid Atlantic low seen above tracks quickly NE to the Norwegian Sea and deepens to be 967mb  by 18z Friday. But a wave develops in the circulation and tracks SE across Scotland to be south of Oslo at the same time. Certainly could bring some wet conditions to the north with snow in Scotland.

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Then the next upper trough quickly arrives with associated surface features which may herald the start of generally becoming more unsettled albeit at this stage the temps are holding up okay although fairly wet and windy.

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Edited by knocker
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The ecm more or less on the same page with the feature traversing the UK on Friday and then the general deterioration .

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.17e3a09077a2b4bbcb93f6c1ffe9ee1e.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.0cf5b6d039d4fa4575626abf4c46305f.png

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The EPS mean anomalies this morning are indicating a trough influenced much cooler period from around the 20th for three or four days before easing somewhat but still just below average at the end of the period.

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Looking at the ECM ens it might not be until later next weekend that the weather goes downhill more widely

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Just taking cursory glances at the models at present - mainly a reflection of how benign and 'normal' conditions have been recently. In the reliable azores high continues to exert significant influence, with the jet tracking to our north on a typical SW-NE axis, at this time of year it means very pleasant quiet conditions overall, with the best of the weather reserved for the SE, mild for all, notably mild in southern parts, very springlike. Bits of rain for the north at times, indeed quite a drab scene on occasion (this weekend is shaping up to be a very disapointingly dull one locally around here- yesterday was a day reminiscent of November..). 

Longer term signs of perhaps a more nationwide unsettled spell, and trending cooler, well temps closer to average, as we see a deep trough anchor down over scandi, with the azores high forced to advect further west, and we pull down more of a NW flow. All rather the course for March.

Mmm March can be an interesting weatherwise, more prone to being less of the default 'westerly atlantic dominated affair than many other months', but this year it is certainly following suit, and when it does it can be an especially trying uninteresting month for weatherwatching, never extreme in any shape or form. Lets play the fast forward button...

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9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just taking cursory glances at the models at present - mainly a reflection of how benign and 'normal' conditions have been recently. In the reliable azores high continues to exert significant influence, with the jet tracking to our north on a typical SW-NE axis, at this time of year it means very pleasant quiet conditions overall, with the best of the weather reserved for the SE, mild for all, notably mild in southern parts, very springlike. Bits of rain for the north at times, indeed quite a drab scene on occasion (this weekend is shaping up to be a very disapointingly dull one locally around here- yesterday was a day reminiscent of November..). 

Longer term signs of perhaps a more nationwide unsettled spell, and trending cooler, well temps closer to average, as we see a deep trough anchor down over scandi, with the azores high forced to advect further west, and we pull down more of a NW flow. All rather the course for March.

Mmm March can be an interesting weatherwise, more prone to being less of the default 'westerly atlantic dominated affair than many other months', but this year it is certainly following suit, and when it does it can be an especially trying uninteresting month for weatherwatching, never extreme in any shape or form. Lets play the fast forward button...

Would you say judged on the common themes so far this winter that we could infact be heading for a more typical spring and summer than in the past few years, where the weather extremes have been marked??

LO

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The ecm still looking at retrogression of the HP and more influence from the trough so more unsettled and the introduction of somewhat cooler air towards the end of the period

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ECM has changed the wind direction to more of a southwesterly at t168 this morning it was northwesterly

12z

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00z

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Evening gang ,Some interest at the end of tonights ECM but got a gut feeling that its the carrot dangler ,I have not given up on a good northerly blast ,i,v been lurking and reading the posts most days ,Certainly quiet on this forum ,reflects the weather ,lets hope we get a late blast of wintry heaven ,cheers gang :yahoo:

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A quick look at the current state of play vis NOAA and the GEFS and EPS mean anomalies.

Not too bad agreement in the 6-10 range with a somewhat diffuse vortex , north Greenland/Pole area with associated troughs NE N. America and NW of the UK. With the Azores HP retrogressing this portends a W/NW upper flow in the eastern Atlantic with more unsettled weather over the UK and temps trending below average. This goes along with what has recently been indicated.

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It would appear that this period of unsettled and cooler weather may well be quite short although it must be noted there is not unanimous agreement on this. The GEFS and EPS are quite keen to move the trough east, disrupt it against the strong E, European ridge, and once more build some heights in mid to eastern Atlantis thus once more bringing more settled weather and temps nearer average to the UK. NOAA  isn't in a rush to reciprocate so for the moment this remains in the pending file.

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Edited by knocker
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