Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well, what a disappointing outlook compared to what the models were showing recently..it's all gone pete tong.

Im afraid the word seasonal no longer applies to the UK karl, its just trash year in year out, the Ecm is rotten for warm weather fans, its actually predictable now that icelandic / greeny highs will appear come may onwards and vanish off the face of the earth come November.

All aboard the southerly tracking jet...joy.

Edited April 30, 2017 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im afraid the word seasonal no longer applies to the UK karl, its just trash year in year out, the Ecm is rotten for warm weather fans, its actually predictable now that icelandic / greeny highs will appear come may onwards and vanish off the face of the earth come November.

All aboard the southerly tracking jet...joy.

Which of course is an excellent trend  And I don't actually think the picture is quite as gloomy as you and others are painting. Whole swathes of the country away from the east coast could actually be quite pleasant

Edited April 30, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Which of course is an excellent trend  And I don't actually think the picture is quite as gloomy as you and others are painting. Whole swathes of the country away from the east coast could actually be quite pleasant

Whats excellent about it?

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats excellent about it?

I would have thought that was obvious. Less medication required for the cold cabal

Edited April 30, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would have thought that was obvious. Less medication required for the cold cabal

Im not even sure what that means, anyway, models singing from a similar hymnsheet this morning, Northern blocking southerly jet and troughs, not sure what there is to be happy about but each to their own..

[Chris.R]

 I agree with knocker. Just like late last may; it was beautiful IMBY and the south and east got the rubbish for a change. 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats excellent about it?

Agreed, it's a vile outlook, especially further south and east with chilly easterly winds, lots of cloud and even some rain..yuck!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 I agree with knocker. Just like late last may; it was beautiful IMBY and the south and east got the rubbish for a change. 

Except the north and west will also get the rubbish too, a few days later.

[Chris.R]

 We'll see, anyway the south-east need the rain more as has been so dry. 

[knocker]

Just so we get the complete picture the latest summary from the other experts just up to the near future.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

The north and west will be mainly dry, bright and fairly warm. Cloudier further southeast with showery rain at times. Chilly in eastern counties. Becoming breezy generally.

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 May 2017 to Saturday 13 May 2017:

It will be largely fine and dry on Thursday and Friday, with bright or sunny spells likely. A few light showers are possible in the south with temperatures near average, but feeling cooler along the east coast. Then from next weekend onwards we are likely to see high pressure dominate. Easterly winds will develop, with largely dry and settled weather prevailing, and increasing amounts of sunshine. The settled weather is also likely to bring rather warm temperatures, especially during the sunnier interludes.

Edited April 30, 2017 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Look at ECM T240 in N Hemisphere view. It scores 10 out of 10 for an Arctic breakout! Would the upstream cold survive the trip to the UK sufficiently to bring mid-May snow :0 :0?

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Just so we get the complete picture the latest summary from the other experts just up to the near future.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

The north and west will be mainly dry, bright and fairly warm. Cloudier further southeast with showery rain at times. Chilly in eastern counties. Becoming breezy generally.

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 May 2017 to Saturday 13 May 2017:

It will be largely fine and dry on Thursday and Friday, with bright or sunny spells likely. A few light showers are possible in the south with temperatures near average, but feeling cooler along the east coast. Then from next weekend onwards we are likely to see high pressure dominate. Easterly winds will develop, with largely dry and settled weather prevailing, and increasing amounts of sunshine. The settled weather is also likely to bring rather warm temperatures, especially during the sunnier interludes.

 Yep sounds pleasent for a lot of us from that. Anyway  all i'll say to everyone is don't always take the models at face value 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Look at ECM T240 in N Hemisphere view. It scores 10 out of 10 for an Arctic breakout! Would the upstream cold survive the trip to the UK sufficiently to bring mid-May snow :0 :0?

Lets hope it gets downgraded like winter! That ecm day10 is revolting!

[Summer Sun]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Lets hope it gets downgraded like winter! That ecm day10 is revolting!

GFS has similar ideas

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Look at ECM T240 in N Hemisphere view. It scores 10 out of 10 for an Arctic breakout! Would the upstream cold survive the trip to the UK sufficiently to bring mid-May snow :0 :0?

It's months too late..enough is enough lol..want a BBQ

Edited April 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

If we could possibly keep meto extended forecasts and moans to the relevant threads please, Thanks.

[knocker]

The EPS 850mb mean temp and streamlines for day ten northerlies for the north with the trough more influential in the south west and a SE drift. This becomes more influential and by T312 the whole of the country is in SW airstream, apart from northern Scotland, This does not translate to raging warmth with temps a little below norm.

Edited April 30, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

GFS certainly can't be ruled out with its change back to cooler air especially now the experts at the met office have come on board for this

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS 6z continues to show a cool but dry outlook into Wk2, With the PV to the East of the Northern Hemisphere as High Pressure pumps up towards Greenland blocking off the Atlantic leaving the UK in a slack N/N/E flow.

Edited April 30, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z has us heading back to winter with cold NEly winds, overnight frosts and even some snow on hills in the north.

Edited April 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

It's easy to see why the blocking charts are starting to appear we could be heading for the lowest NAO since November

[Gael_Force]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

It's easy to see why the blocking charts are starting to appear we could be heading for the lowest NAO since November

Think you have the cart before the horse... NAO is dipping because of the blocking shown in the models.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Just had a look at the charts for the first time in about 4 weeks. Worse charts I think I've ever seen for may. Utterly attrocious. Not impressed whatsoever. Never get these charts during the winter but the moment summer begins to show it's hand, gob smacking charts. Horrific. Cold, cloudy and windy. Brilliant. It really has reinforced my decision to emigrate later this year. Cant deal with this crappy climate anymore. Goodbye UK, it's been emotional (and cold and miserable)

It'll be a whole different ball game by this time next week - we'll probably be talking heatwaves and plumes on the horizon. Currently speaking though, yes, looks quite chilly and generally uninspiring - but I cling like a limpet on to the small chance the models have got the wrong end of the stick in the long term...

Mind you I'm heading off to Italy in 3 weeks so it's not bothering me too much ;-)

[Frosty.]

Only around a week ago the models were showing a heatwave for the week ahead with the uk bathed in 564 dam ( +15 T850's)..

Edited April 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Tamara]

On ‎26‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 14:07, Tamara said:

 

We should expect angular momentum to start falling back as the current tropical wave fades from the eastern Pacific.

   

Caution though should be taken in terms of how the models programme the mid and higher latitudes over the coming first half of May period because there is a highly likely absolute floor limit to the fall-back of AAM in terms of the evolving ENSO background.

Looking further ahead, if we take into account the periodicity of the MJO (up to 60 days) and the general ENSO trends in the Pacific, then it is not unrealistic to expect another eastward progressing MJO wave as we usher in official summer

So what will be key to watch will be how far the return tide mark of angular momentum is through May as the tropical progression fades and then renews. If this is higher, or at least no lower than seen early March following the previous wave, then this will bode more favourably as one important ingredient for a decent opening to summer.

 

Rather too much overreaction to intra-seasonal changes and, as often happens on this thread irrespective of the time of year, knee jerk extrapolation of repercussions for another three months ahead. 

The extract from the previous post made a few days back is coming into close focus.

We are set for a fall in Atmospheric Angular Momentum in tandem with the death throes of the polar vortex (bye bye till till next autumn) playing out in the troposphere. Hence residual ashes of this spread across the Siberian side and no surprise to see the -AO/NAO interplay flushing cold air southwards through Northern and Eastern Europe towards central and western Europe, and keeping the lid on warm air advection coming around the low pressure anomalies in the central and western Atlantic. 

But in the context of the longer term, the upcoming first half of May period should be perceived as a transitional period, and, taking into account the discussion of the other day, and the reasoning given, not  a longer term sustained seasonal pattern change. Hence the caution that was advised in the above caption, and evidently of a sensible type which is not in evidence enough on these pages.

I would be looking at how the ocean/atmosphere is looking set to align the tropical and extra tropical circulation as we head closer and closer to the start of the summer season to bring that Atlantic trough more into play with warm air surging northwards and a downstream ridge over Western Europe replacing a cold trough.

Assuming such rising AAM and increased westerlies into the global circulation assisting downstream ridges and helping set that trough in the Atlantic , natural seasonal wavelength changes should play a big part here in augmenting this changedit

Edited: Happy summer, or moaning - whatever is your preference. Over and out.

Edited April 30, 2017 by Tamara