Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

Another taste of winter during the Gfs 6z low res, actually several as it keeps reloading the meridional pattern / arctic air supply with occasional snowy spells and sharp frosts through to mid April and beyond..yes really!

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Nothing sinister lurking in the GEFS 6z mean woodshed, most of the next 10 days look benign with high pressure strongest across the south, ergo the best temperatures and sunshine are likely to be in the south of the uk and even beyond next week, yes it becomes more unsettled but temperatures still look mild in the south, cooler across scotland.

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

There is nothing from Exeter suggesting we are in for any sort of cold spell as the Gfs 6z operational shows..so that's probably just the usual day 10 + eye candy that never makes it into the reliable. What we are looking at across most of the uk is a lovely spell of high pressure developing next week with plenty of warm sunshine followed by cool clear nights with patchy mist and fog which will quickly burn away in the strengthening early April sunshine. Towards mid month there is a signal for a more unsettled cooler spell from the atlantic but with a nw / se split..The s / se are still likely to see decent weather for most of the time. Further into April there are signs that high pressure will have the upper hand, especially further south so plenty more fine and warm weather to come during the next month.

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Eugene]

Great to see the persistent trend for high pressure to retrogress to our northwest later in the week/next weekend onwards, been showing up for days on GFS OP's with this mornings ECM 00Z picking it up, would be very foolish to dismiss this trend just because it's not what you want in April, previous history has shown lots of times Northerly outbreaks occurring in mid April after a fine settled first week, whether thats cold and wintry or just cool and dull. 

[Frosty.]

40 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Great to see the persistent trend for high pressure to retrogress to our northwest later in the week next weekend onwards.

Too little too late, should have happened months ago when it would have delivered something but at this time of year it's more of an annoyance than anything else and in any case, there is no mention of a late cold outbreak, just a typical atlantic nw / se split from mid month. The emphasis during the next 7-10 days is on increasingly warm and sunny weather as next week goes on.

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

It looks like this high should last into next weekend once it builds if the 00z is right

Edited April 1, 2017 by Summer Sun

[snowray]

24 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Great to see the persistent trend for high pressure to retrogress to our northwest later in the week/next weekend onwards, been showing up for days on GFS OP's with this mornings ECM 00Z picking it up, would be very foolish to dismiss this trend just because it's not what you want in April, previous history has shown lots of times Northerly outbreaks occurring in mid April after a fine settled first week, whether thats cold and wintry or just cool and dull. 

Yes your quite right about that Eugene, I was looking at some of the lowest temps recorded in past Aprils and they were mainly in Scotland but not exclusively, and they were not necessarily recorded in early march as one might expect. An example of this is Garforth W Yorkshire recording a -12.8c on 24th April 1908. April can be a funny sort of month, and I have suspected for some time that we might get an arctic blast sometime mid month.

Although If it don't happen all the better as far as I am concerned, as Karl said it should have happened a couple of months back.

 

Anyway all eyes on the 12z, will it be a mild and sunny or white Easter? Could be a bit of interesting model watching coming up.

[Summer Sun]

Monday will some rain in the north and west whilst the further south and east you go it will be warmer with some sunshine

Settling down more widely from Tuesday with any rain becoming increasingly restricted to the far north

 

Edited April 1, 2017 by Summer Sun

[snowray]

GEM going for a Northerly blast by the look of things, out to T192.

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

GEM going for a Northerly blast by the look of things, out to T192.

 

Yup GFS and GEM couldn't be more different

[cheese]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

Yes your quite right about that Eugene, I was looking at some of the lowest temps recorded in past Aprils and they were mainly in Scotland but not exclusively, and they were not necessarily recorded in early march as one might expect. An example of this is Garforth W Yorkshire recording a -12.8c on 24th April 1908. April can be a funny sort of month, and I have suspected for some time that we might get an arctic blast sometime mid month.

Although If it don't happen all the better as far as I am concerned, as Karl said it should have happened a couple of months back.

 

Anyway all eyes on the 12z, will it be a mild and sunny or white Easter? Could be a bit of interesting model watching coming up.

Just down the road from me! Can't imagine a temp that low occurring even in January now, let alone April.

Funnily enough, I think Wakefield holds the March record high? Above 25C. 

Edited April 1, 2017 by cheese

[johnholmes]

Have a look at the chart for Monday on the Met Fax charts. How on earth the senior man justifies the number he has is beyond me. I would love to hear him justify them. Going back to basic thermo dynamics it utterly impossible I would have thought for so many. My tutor on my advanced forecast course would have torn me to shred over them.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Control not making anything of the northerly! hope it's true

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Control not making anything of the northerly! hope it's true

I think the northerly will be yet another wild goose chase and who's really up for chasing a phantom northerly in mid April?.. just enjoy the warm sunshine next week and hopefully beyond.

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think the northerly will be yet another wild goose chase and who's really up for chasing a phantom northerly in mid April?.. just enjoy the warm sunshine next week and hopefully beyond.

I most certainly hope so, karl!

[Frosty.]

Just looking through the GEFS 12z, there is almost no support for a Northerly in and around the day 10 range but there are several very warm long draw southerlies with temps into the low 70's F..and before that there is strong support for a very pleasant spell of high pressure with warm sunshine to look forward to.

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Once Monday is out the way it looks settled all of next week

It stays settled Into the weekend and probably beyond if the beeb's weekly forecast is right (see the spring thread)

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks increasingly good, especially from midweek as high pressure drifts east across the south and southern uk really enjoys the best of the weather during the week ahead and gradually warms up with plenty of sunshine. Quite a marked contrast between the far north which eventually turns colder and the warmth across southern areas into next weekend but by the following Monday it turns unsettled and cooler for all and much colder from T+240 hours as the airflow strengthens and becomes arctic maritime..I would think there would be some snow around later, especially further north and on hills together with frosty / icy nights.

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ay Frosty, I never rate ECM 240, but as it's April, wondering if this could be most accurate ECM 240 chart of all time, wet weather is common

Edited April 1, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay Frosty, I never rate ECM 240, but as it's April, wondering if this could be most accurate ECM 240 chart of all time, wet weather is common

Aye it's an April fool's day classic Ecm 12z T+240 tease for coldies..lordy lordy haven't we been punished enough for the last 4 months.

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Aye it's an April fool's day tease for coldies..if there are any left?

I make you right there, and its at D10 as per usual of course.

[snowray]

But worth remembering none the less that we can still get cold northerlies, and also snow and ice in April. I know that it all seems so long ago now, but when it happens it will no doubt take us all by surprise.

[knocker]

This evening's ecm is not without interest even if it doesn't quite materialize as envisioned here.

The first trough tracking east north of Scotland has prepared the ground for the little low spawned by the cut off upper low to the south west. It can be seen here at T168 as a small perturbation 1016mb south east of Greenland. 24 hours later it has phased in with another small low SW of Iceland and it has deepened en route for Scotland. This breakdown of the HP pattern has been indicated for a while now if perhaps not this early. We shall see.

Edited April 1, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, snowray said:

But worth remembering none the less that we can still get cold northerlies, and also snow and ice in April. I know that it all seems so long ago now, but when it happens it will no doubt take us all by surprise.

Lots of lovely high pressure and sunshine warmth to enjoy, that much we know is going to happen..

Edited April 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO going northwesterly by Saturday week bringing some rain into the west