Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

But the posting of precipitation and temp charts nearly a fortnight away does confirm the unbalanced rumour.

It's what the model is showing in low res..ergo, it's a possible future trend...besides, I'm not saying its going to happen, just reporting what's showing.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[Nick L]

For goodness sake. Is this the handbags and personal squabbles thread this afternoon?

If you want to have an argument with someone, take it elsewhere please. And word to the wise: If you hit the report button, telling someone "I've reported you" is not the best way to go about things.

[Frosty.]

Perhaps the Gfs 12z is still under estimating the temperature potential tomorrow with most of central / southern and southeast england expected to be mainly dry with some breaks in the cloud allowing sunny spells..21-22c 71f is possible in the warmest spots as much warmer and more humid air wafts north from france.

Having said that, 19c is nothing to be sniffed at in late march..impressive stuff really.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Perhaps the Gfs 12z is still under estimating the temperature potential tomorrow with most of central / southern and southeast england expected to be mainly dry with some breaks in the cloud allowing sunny spells..21-22c 71f is possible in the warmest spots as much warmer and more humid air wafts north from france.

GFS was out by 3/4c the other day in many places when the sun came out when it was showing more cloud around, could well happen again tomorrow. I'm expecting mainly cloud but some sunny spells/hazy sunshine during the day so 21c looks likely to be hit where the sun comes out.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z shows a smoother transition to anticyclonic domination next week, much less fuss than the Gfs 12z makes of it.. becoming warm too..definitely prefer this run out of the various 12z so far.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Away from north west and northern Scotland high pressure looks likely it will take charge pleasant by day but chiller by night if skies clear especially in the countryside

[Sparkiee storm]

Sorry mods, can remove if it doesn't belong here, but has anyone got a link to a model/charts what show cloud cover for tomorrow?

[Summer Sun]

19 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Sorry mods, can remove if it doesn't belong here, but has anyone got a link to a model/charts what show cloud cover for tomorrow?

Click UK cloud cover on the left

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

[knocker]

Regarding this evening's ecm the upper trough disrupts on Saturday with a portion sinking south towards the Mediterranean and the surface area of low pressure that will have been effecting the UK from now until then follows suite allowing the Azores to ridge north east on Sunday. The HP hangs in there at the start of the week although it does allow a small upper perturbation to encroach overnight Monday into Tuesday which may bring some light patchy rain to the north west of the UK. This soon clears before the high cell establishes itself for the next couple of days before the Atlantic encroaches again by Friday. Temps maybe a touch above average but there will be the usual variability.

Edited March 29, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Sorry mods, can remove if it doesn't belong here, but has anyone got a link to a model/charts what show cloud cover for tomorrow?

Clouds thinning and breaking in places across southern uk with some warm sunny spells.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[Sparkiee storm]

Okay, thanks SS and Frosty

[Frosty.]

Just now, Sparkiee storm said:

Okay, thanks SS and Frosty

You're welcome..hope it helped.

[snowray]

Interesting that the high res 18z HIRLAM is showing 19c in quite a few locations tomorrow afternoon, not just around London and East Anglia. So we could in fact see the 20c breached quite widely by the end of the day, I find HIRLAM to be pretty good personally.

[Frosty.]

Tomorrow could be the warmest day of the year so far..

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tomorrow could be the warmest day of the year so far..

Yes its certainly looking that way, Arpege showing some 20c's now with what looks to be hazy/broken cloud cover .

[Frosty.]

White Easter anyone? Arctic blast at the end of the Gfs 18z

The cold good friday

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

That would not surprise me in the slightest.

Just as we are all looking for mild weather, expect upgrades for a cold easter, still lots of cold air around.

Edited March 29, 2017 by snowray

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

That would not surprise me in the slightest.

It's just for fun at that range of course but it wouldn't be too surprising as you say..after all, winter was pathetic and Xmas day was a scorcher so good Friday might be a whiteout

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The GFS this morning, assuming of course one takes it at face value, is not without interest First to get today out of the way. As has already been noted today could be the warmest day of the year in some parts. Essentially and for the sake of brevity just an overview as more detail can obviously be found elsewhere, the UK divided into a NW/SE split with the line roughly Yorkshire to Poole. South east of that line the cloud is more likely to break with temps perhaps reaching 22C whereas the other side could well remain quite wet in places , particularly NW England. (the moderate rain has just ceased down here).

Moving forward  The weekend continues to see the deconstruction of the trough with the Azores ridging NE into the UK on Sunday. This ridge soon comes under attack from the energy being emitted upstream with a trough tracking with the jet squashing the ridge which on the surface forces some decaying fronts across the UK, mainly just effecting the north west.

Once this attack has passed, with the trough eventually sinking south over eastern Europe, renewed amplification of the Azores takes place just to the west of the UK aided and abetted by the aforementioned trough and another trough in the western Atlantic sinking south east. Thus a large surface high centered over Ireland portending some dry pleasant weather with cloud and temps difficult to pin down at this range.

From here the high pressure ridges NW, for a brief period curtailing the energy flow from the north west and it's really down to how effective this will be as to how long the UK stays under the auspices of the HP. Under this scenario certainly the rest of the week and the weekend but we'll see what the ecm has to say.

Edited March 30, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm this morning is not a million miles away from the GFS. with the high pressure staying in the close vicinity of the UK with the trough trying to make eastward headway tending to disrupt in mid Atlantic. Consequently, apart from the decaying fronts Monday night. the UK remains under the auspices of the HP all of next week, including the weekend. Temps around average but the usual caveats, when a high pressure cell is around. apply.

[Frosty.]

I'm expecting the warmest day of the year so far today with 21-22c  70-72f being recorded somewhere across the SE this afternoon and a general 19-20c for the south and midlands..more like may / june than the end of march with clouds thinning and breaking across southern uk with sunny spells and an increasingly warm and humid continental southerly flow..The first of hopefully many this spring / summer season.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[cheshire snow]

Nice end to the ECM this morning with +10 uppers into the far south SE,would I be correct in saying temperatures would be around the 23-24c mark?

As in winter it is a day 10 chart so not to be taken seriously at this stage,but nice to see.

C.S

[knocker]

Not a lot of change vis the anomalies this morning.

In the 6-10 period the main vortex still Russia with the subsidiary Greenland/Canada with associated trough in the western Atlantic. This trough may end up being the key player as we progress through this period and the pattern east regarding Easter. Meanwhile down stream the Azores ridges initiating a high cell in the vicinity of the UK which certainly looks set to hang around for a few days bringing some dry, pleasant weather with the usual caveats vis cloud and temps.

As mentioned earler changes are afoot towards the end of this period and they continue into the next without any strong signals involved. The vortex is in it's death throes and the pattern shifting east so we see the decline of the HP over the UK, and eastward movement of the Atlantic trough and heights building in the western Atlantic. There is no complete agreement on the evolution but the percentage play at this stage is becoming more unsettled with temps returning to average, perhaps a tad below,

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Nice end to the ECM this morning with +10 uppers into the far south SE,would I be correct in saying temperatures would be around the 23-24c mark?

As in winter it is a day 10 chart so not to be taken seriously at this stage,but nice to see.

C.S

Looking at the chart for 18z on the 8th the highest STs are north east Scotland around 18C with England generally around the 14C mark. As has been mentioned on earlier occasions great care has to taken using the 850mb temps as a guide to the surface in anticyclonic conditions. In fact best not used at all as It very often  isn't a straight lapse rate calculation.

Edited March 30, 2017 by knocker

[cheshire snow]

Just now, knocker said:

Looking at the chart for 18z on the 8th the highest STs are north east Scotland around 18C with England generally around the 14C mark. As has been mentioned on earlier occasions great care has to taken using the 850mb temps as a guide to the surface in anticyclonic conditions. In fact best not used at all as It very often  isn't a straight lapse rate calculation.

Cheers Knocker 

C.S