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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards


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I have a great view to the south here...just pitch black all the way to the horizon...expecting to at least hear some thunder...this band is still being forcast to weaken by the beeb this morning but it's intensifying...just goes to show how difficult these things are to forcast...

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Lovely looking storm this afternoon! 

Here's the one that didn't get away. Taken at Crawley, West Sussex.

All bark but no bite down here on the south coast! 

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Yay, woke up 10 minutes ago to this very small and much elevated little cell. Just hearing my third rumble of thunder as I type and it's just started raining quite heavily. No lightning observed as yet.

Oohh another rumble and the rain is getting even heavier. Was just about to say it looks very unorganised but now looks as if it might be organising a little more as it pushes NNE.

Not sure how it feels elsewhere but the humidity is SKY ROCKETING here.

Cell moving off now - happy days and a pleasant surprise.

While writing, I only discovered the other day that you can set a historical data loop on blitzortung so you can see the progress of lightning over the past several hours. It's fascinating to watch. 

Good luck everyone today, hoping this will be the last thunder for me today as am off to a BBQ later. Keeping my hopes pinned on tomorrow night and Monday :D

IMG_1089.JPG

Edited by Harry
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Looks as if a second cell along that convective line is going to come very close to here. 

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So completely unexpected storms arrive in this area... but they stop just short/split up of my doorstep yet again :D-bound to reform and wipe out the rest of Essex once past the shield that is me. Enjoy the bonus to anyone who gets them!

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13 minutes ago, Maxxie said:

the sky has gone dark, I hear thunder :D

Yep just started here too right on the edge of the line of storms here north of London  moving east

Edited by biddie
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Storm & Convective Forecast

5929349ed7713_Day1-2outlook-May2017(2).thumb.jpg.7d932941e32047e878e7257f9095e3ec.jpg

Issued 2017-05-27 07:47:02

Valid: 27/05/2017 06z to 28/05/2017 06z

CONVECTIVE/STORM 2 DAY OUTLOOK - 27TH-28TH MAY 2017

Synopsis

An upper-level trough to the west of the UK will advance east toward the British Isles over the weekend, while upper ridge extending north over mainland Europe weakens. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track NE across the Irish Sea today, to be centred over E Scotland by 18z, a cold front while pivot N and E across England and Wales, bringing a line of thundery rain and thunderstorms pushing NE this morning, while further thunderstorms may develop across N England and S Scotland this evening as the area of low pressure arrives. Sunday sees another thundery low move up from the Bay of Biscay, introducing storms to southern areas later on Sunday and overnight into Monday morning.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK – SATURDAY 06z to SUNDAY 06z

convmap_270517(2).thumb.png.fd695b37c35e75880d95167d314206f1.png

… ENGLAND and WALES AM …

A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front across the British Isles, contributing to moderate to strong instability, a marked short-wave trough approaching from the SW and surface cold front moving NE will creating forcing for ascent to push an arc of thunderstorms N and E across England and Wales this morning. 40-50 knot mid-level flow and some backing of winds at the surface should favour some organisation of storms in the line pushing N and E, with stronger updrafts capable of producing isolated marginally large hail (up to an inch) – particularly later this morning, though main risk will be large rainfall totals in a short space of time, perhaps isolated 20-30 mm per hour, leading to flash flooding.

…  N ENGLAND and SCOTLAND PM ,,,

Atmosphere should stabilise across S England and S Wales this afternoon in wake of shortwave trough moving NE. Further north, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across N and NE England, S and Central Scotland this afternoon in the warm moist airmass ahead of approaching cold front, with 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE possible. 30-40 knot mid-level Swly flow and backed SEly flow at the surface combined with large CAPE values may support the development of organised storms across the above areas, a forcing for ascent increases with arrival of shortwave upper trough from the SW. Storm clusters or bowing line segments, perhaps even an isolated supercell, may develop and track NE, capable of large hail (up to an inch), 20-30mm rain per hour leading to flash flooding, strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. An isolated brief tornado can’t be ruled out too. Therefore have issued a SLIGHT risk here. Storms will ease across the north Saturday night.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK – SUNDAY 06z to MONDAY 06z

convmap_280517.thumb.png.9807e611d07b9f8cb7177aa71db991af.png

… S ENGLAND and S WALES …

Another shortwave trough is forecast to swing into the Bay of Biscay on Sunday before ejecting NE towards the British Isles, surface low and attendant occluding frontal system will move north from the Bay of Biscay toward S UK ahead of shortwave by 00z Monday. Another surge of warm moist air, characterised by high theta-w values (wet bulb potential temps) will return to S England and will destabilise as shortwave trough and frontal boundary combine to create forcing for ascent, so thunderstorms are likely to develop initially across SW England and S Wales Sunday evening, before perhaps developing more widely and pushing N across S England Sunday night. A MARGINAL risk of severe weather has been included on the forecast map to account for risk of heavy rainfall leading to flash-flooding and also a risk of marginally large hail. Storms will also be capable of frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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1 hour ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

BBC forecast just now not really going for anything much tbh, certainly not compared to other convective forecasts. At least the H word wasn't mentioned!

The Bbc clearly showed this was arriving. It even shows the showers on the app between 9-12 . More storms for South tomorrow night

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50 minutes ago, Buckster said:

I didn't think any storms were predicted for the S-East this morning ?

when I look at the charts nothing really immediately noticeable on them for this morning ?

Was on BBC forecast and app and the storm charts on here you can see them

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I think the more northern arm of the shower band will turn thundery once it enters Lincolnshire. I have given up on it though, my focus is now on what can develop behind it.

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