Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

Recommended Posts

We have a lot of focus on Saturday,. and for the primary event pushing up through Friday night into Saturday afternoon,. 

The bigger question,. what's likely to happen before that? ~ Past experience has shown me that some of the pre-main events can be the most intense. Home grown storms? 
I'm speaking about Friday Afternoon- early evening,. isolated cells may'be. 
Also as the Low pushes North will there be Thundery showers left in the South Saturday afternoon and evening.. indeed Sunday too,. 

If we check out Blitzortung we can already see a wide area of thundery weather 150 ish Miles of Ireland and Cornwall,. GFS shows our high pressure moving East.. 
Depending on the very slight "low" attached to that we could may'be see a couple of cells hitting cornwall and Pembrokshire ? 

It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow :) 








 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Well, CAPE levels increase through the Midlands and in to Eastern parts of the UK - some tasty ingredients! However, i'd take a stab at capping being a problem in these areas. All to play for due to a lot of uncertainties.

I wish w09 would make an appearance, very knowledgeable member when it comes to storms.

To me it has felt that this has been quite typical in recent years. Storms start to initiate in the S/W of the UK fairly early, only to trundle NE during the afternoon with the best activity kicking off later once it has passed us.

What happened to the thundery lows we used to get that would arrive on the S coast by evening to give a nice light show through the night?


I'd rather have potential than none though :D

Edited by Chris K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Chris K said:

To me it has felt that this has been quite typical in recent years. Storms start to initiate in the S/W of the UK fairly early, only to trundle NE during the afternoon with the best activity kicking off later once it has passed us.

What happened to the thundery lows we used to get that would arrive on the S coast by evening to give a nice light show through the night?


I'd rather have potential than none though :D

Talking about thundery lows,. I remember the hottest day of the year,., well not that particular day but me and my Nan went to Weston,. 
there were these little tiny clouds over the ocean giving off lightning, I had never seen anything like it in my life ! ... I get hopeful when I see lightning over the ocean,. often think there is far more potential when it hits land!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Chris K said:

To me it has felt that this has been quite typical in recent years. Storms start to initiate in the S/W of the UK fairly early, only to trundle NE during the afternoon with the best activity kicking off later once it has passed us.

What happened to the thundery lows we used to get that would arrive on the S coast by evening to give a nice light show through the night?


I'd rather have potential than none though :D

Agreed Chris. Time after time in recent years, the trough has arrived in the west during the morning, before heating gets going, only to explode into life over the East later in the day. It's just sheer bad luck, but bluddy annoying too!

Edited by davehsug

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite excited with regards to Saturdays prospect, BBC now have a lightning symbol for our location in the afternoon which doesn't happen often, plenty of CAPE and looks to be no problems getting a trigger as the low encroaches in from the West.

I finish work at 3, hopefully get out earlier and will be chasing across the region throughout the afternoon/evening. Good luck all!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2017-5-24 at 19:58, Harry said:

Indeed...unlikely based on other models. Yes the instability will build but I'd be surprised to see rainfall as extensive as that.

How many years have we been thinking about and MCS ;) haha!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 May 2017

ISSUED 22:38 UTC Thu 25 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

A large-scale upper trough will approach Ireland from the west during Friday and in combination with a ridge to the east, will help to pull in a moist, unstable airmass from the south. A pre-cold frontal trough is expected to move into western Ireland during the afternoon and in combination with daytime heating and SBCAPE of 500-800j/kg should be enough generate surface based thunderstorms that could quickly become quite electrically active (initiation of thunderstorms in the Irish slight area is expected between 15-16z). Otherwise more isolated embedded thunderstorms may cross Ireland from west to east as the cold front moves through during Friday evening. 

Overnight the cold front will continue to progress eastwards and an area of midlevel instability will spread out of France and across the Channel into southern/southwestern England towards the end of the night.  MUCAPE of 600-800j/kg will move into the slight risk region in Britain towards the end of the night. Mid-level thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of Devon and Dorset around 02-03z on Saturday morning. This area of mid-level thunderstorms will continue NNW into Wales through the end of the night and into Saturday morning. 

An outlook for Saturday-daytime (post 06z) will be issued sometime on Friday. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-26

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest GFS has if anything increased the potential during saturday day for more of England. I can see the potential for a cracker of a day for quite a few, should things go as well as they possibly can. The right ingredients for some large hail and possible tornadic activity certainly seem present. 

From now on in, hi-res charts will be required. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shared this on one of the other chats but the 18z certainly looks good for thunderstorms in Northern England c: Would be interesting to see how this develops

18z STORM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saturday looking potentially fantastic.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 What a forecast! Saving this for prosperity.

Regional forecast for North West England

Hot and sunny again today. Thunderstorms tomorrow.

Today:

Friday will be dry, sunny and hot again everywhere, even on the coast. Crosby was the hottest place in England yesterday and it could well be again today. A warm breeze will develop later, particularly on the hills. Maximum Temperature 28 °C.

Tonight:

After a warm sunny evening, we will all have another mild and rather muggy night. There will be a very little cloud and a new moon. Minimum Temperature 16 °C.

Saturday:

Heavy thundery showers will arrive during the morning, perhaps causing some localised short lived surface flooding. Fresher but still sunny and warm weather will replace the thunderstorms by late afternoon. Maximum Temperature 26 °C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday will be fresher though mostly dry with sunny spells. There will be sunny spells and a few showers on Monday. Tuesday will probably be dry, warm and sunny.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/regional-forecast/nw

Edited by Chris.R

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really excited seeing the forecasts and looking at the charts this morning....

 

.... until I looked at the Euro4 showing no rain at all across most of England with just the far SW, west Wales and W Scotland getting anything :cc_confused:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any thoughts on today's potential, GFS has +900-1200kj of CAPE with -4li in Cheshire and the Scottish Borders between 3pm and 9pm this afternoon. I heard a few mentions of the possibility of something home-grown ahead of Saturday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 I think there's too much of a cap to overcome today; would be nice though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Any thoughts on today's potential, GFS has +900-1200kj of CAPE with -4li in Cheshire and the Scottish Borders between 3pm and 9pm this afternoon. I heard a few mentions of the possibility of something home-grown ahead of Saturday.

High pressure is in control today and the front is way out to the west. The only place likely to see storms today during daylight hours is Ireland. Crystal clear blue skies and sunshine for the bulk of the UK today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Downgrade once more and possibly upgrade again later on. At the moment little or no chance of storms here. Plenty of time to change yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The CAPE and LI seems to have performed a hard ease/south east shift this morning. There must be some cap for the forecasters showing northern areas more at risk of storms than the SE tomorrow!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

no chance of storms here now as it been downgrade last few days :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 May 2017

ISSUED 07:34 UTC Fri 26 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

A large-scale upper trough will approach Ireland from the west during Friday and in combination with a ridge to the east, will help to pull in a moist, unstable airmass from the south. A pre-cold frontal trough is expected to move into western Ireland during the afternoon and in combination with daytime heating and SBCAPE of 500-800j/kg should be enough generate surface based thunderstorms that could quickly become quite electrically active (initiation of thunderstorms in the Irish slight area is expected between 15-16z). Otherwise more isolated embedded thunderstorms may cross Ireland from west to east as the cold front moves through during Friday evening. 

Overnight the cold front will continue to progress eastwards and an area of midlevel instability will spread out of France and across the Channel into southern/southwestern England towards the end of the night.  MUCAPE of 600-800j/kg will move into the slight risk region in Britain towards the end of the night. Mid-level thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of Devon and Dorset around 02-03z on Saturday morning. This area of mid-level thunderstorms will continue NNW into Wales through the end of the night and into Saturday morning. 

An outlook for Saturday-daytime (post 06z) will be issued sometime on Friday. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-26

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decisions decisions.

Meant to be doing more work on my project car on Saturday. But do I stay home and work on the car or head off storm chasing with the daily driver?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15:00 tomorrow according to NMM

Certainly some potential that's for sure. Strong DLS, decent helicity, CAPE locally up to 1900-2000J/kg! Definitely some scope for some perhaps damaging hail and some dangerous downdrafts. 

If I was to place myself anywhere, it would be Leicestershire/Notts up into Lincolnshire, at least for the possible surface based activity. 

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well euro4 only favours sw and the Irish sea.. 

Could be a dry day with very very warm temps tomorrow for the south east and east coasts if of course cloud is in low amounts and no showers break out 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...