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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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16 hours ago, convector said:

Slim indeed, however, if that trough sticks around and the cold front pivots/stalls, it would certainly raise the possibility. The gfs has been ever so slightly increasing instability across the far SE over the last day or two, which is somewhat promising. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a (rather pathetic) kent clipper or, at least, some offshore lightning. 

Can't wait to see some real setups - desperate to chase something (which is probably why i'm writing so much on an off chance). Although, saying that, things could get interesting over the weekend if the shear's good. 

slim_chance_kent.gif

Looking at the latest synoptic plots over Southern Britain , the chart highlighted above is setting up right now as I type. Isobars are opening up as the front stalls across central England. This will allow the warm air aloft to be reinforced for a time  from France and Biscay source. Currently little instability over that direct at the moment but signs now of a developing thundery disturbance to pivot along the front out of Biscay towards SE Britain. So prospects of rain and thunder possible in parts of SE Britain tomorrow increases.

C

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 May 2017

ISSUED 16:16 UTC Tue 16 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

A slow-moving, waving cold front will push eastwards during Wednesday bringing some much needed rain across parts of central, southern and eastern England. Riding along the eastern edge of this area of rain will be a marginally unstable airmass. There are two options for convective showers/lightning. One being from storms that generate across northern France and become elevated as they move across the Channel and become embedded with a more complex area of rain as the front approaches. The other being if there is any bright/sunny spells ahead of the front during the day on Wednesday and this could spark surface based thunderstorms in the southeastern corner of England. The highest risk in the brown sausage will be across eastern parts of Kent, Essex and Suffolk. If lightning does develop in this scenario, it could become frequent enough to warrant a slight risk. 

 

Post cold front there will also be enough CAPE and steeping mid-level lapse rates to produce heavy showers in Ireland, these could have a sporadic lightning strike, although the risk remains low and isolated. 

 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-17

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Tomorrow looking very interesting across the SE! 

1hourinstprecip_d02_41.png

1hourinstprecip_d02_42.png

1hourinstprecip_d02_43.png

mucape_d02_41.png

lpiswaths_d02_46.png

Good luck if your chasing or in the SE tomorrow!

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 Will believe it when I see it!! Heard it all before but I have everything crossed - even seeing some proper rain is something to get excited about now! :D

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Going to be a very interesting 24 hours. My feeling is that if I was in E Kent and saw no lightning (either during the afternoon but more especially in the evening) I would be disappointed. I suspect the further N and W you travel you'll be increasingly fortunate to see anything electrical, where I suspect the atmosphere will be much more mixed and far less convective.

One thing is certain, anywhere E of say Reading should expect some very heavy rain tomorrow. I can vouch that it is very warm and humid now with more juice yet to be imported. The atmosphere will be liked a sodden flannel being wrung out through the second part of tomorrow.

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Been very humid all day today, with some unstable looking skies. Thinking that anything electrical tomorrow will be a Kent Clipper and that here will just be rain, but we shall see! 

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Just heard from Nick Miller (on Beeb website, no personally) that it was the warmest day of the year so far (25.8C in, where else, Gravesend) - doesn't surprise me in the slightest, sweating like a pig when I got home 20 mins ago. So...juice is in situ, heat in abundance - fingers crossed

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3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Looking at the latest synoptic plots over Southern Britain , the chart highlighted above is setting up right now as I type. Isobars are opening up as the front stalls across central England. This will allow the warm air aloft to be reinforced for a time  from France and Biscay source. Currently little instability over that direct at the moment but signs now of a developing thundery disturbance to pivot along the front out of Biscay towards SE Britain. So prospects of rain and thunder possible in parts of SE Britain tomorrow increases.

C

Still going to plan, isobars opening up across Southern Britain. No sign of imported thundery activity up wind at the moment , so home grown thundery activity seems the likely outcome tomorrow along a pronounced  zone say from Lyme Bay to the Wash. Could of course be located a bit further north or south but at this stage the far SE possibly remain in the warm dryer airmass for a while longer.

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

Just heard from Nick Miller (on Beeb website, no personally) that it was the warmest day of the year so far (25.8C in, where else, Gravesend) - doesn't surprise me in the slightest, sweating like a pig when I got home 20 mins ago. So...juice is in situ, heat in abundance - fingers crossed

Oh god yeah. Even this morning when I stepped outside at 7am I was really surprised how warm it felt. Car was reading 16c which seemed a tad optimistic for the time, but even so it felt very humid and still does right now.

Also have you noticed how all the early predictions for tomorrow were all "south east" and as it's got nearer to the time they're all now "very far east of south east"? What ARE the chances (more than you think)? :wallbash:

 

Edited by Windblade

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dkFrlbg.png

 

TAF for Lydd Airport suggests a 30% probability of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

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3 hours ago, Convective said:

dkFrlbg.png

 

TAF for Lydd Airport suggests a 30% probability of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Some lightning detected now about 50 miles west of Paris. Clouded over in Dieppe past hour but temp still around 80f there. Could be a bit of energy firing up Kent for early evening.

 C

 C

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Rainfall actually less of an issue from this than the unexpected intensity of last night's rain!

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The storm coming up through France seems to be on a perfect trajectory for a Kent Clipper, if it makes it that far

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Monday looks interesting, Evening storm moving out of france?

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Yes it seems that way. Pretty much everything in France has died, don't think anything will be crossing the Channel tonight.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 18 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 19 May 2017

ISSUED 04:03 UTC Thu 18 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

The axis of a steep upper trough will drift eastwards across Ireland during the day and with the associated cold pool will allow for surface to 500mb lapse rates in excess of 40C. This combined with CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg will lead to plenty of convection. Showers will become heavy and a few thundery, although widespread lightning is not expected. (Ireland is favoured over western Britain for potential of lightning today). 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-18

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Although I'm not in an area that's at a (low) risk of storms today, it's nice to see such a frothy sky:smile:

Good luck to everyone who's in one of the areas highlighted for some convective action today. :bomb::good:

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So, yesterday was a total bust, but to be honest I was never expecting much. It didn't feel "stormy" at all all day, with rain, some heavy at times and that stratus look to the sky all day. Was very humid first thing in the morning but as the rain came in later that thankfully dropped. Still, it was nice to have the rain, we really need it.

Edited by Windblade

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Honestly beginning to get a bit concerned about flooding in my little town. We've had some of the heaviest rainfall I've ever seen (including a ton of hail) trained on us almost solidly since 11am, and it shows no sign of stopping. It actually looks like it's been snowing in my garden. No thunder yet, as it happens.

I don't suppose any one has a small boat I can borrow if I suddenly need to escape?

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15 minutes ago, Damone said:

Honestly beginning to get a bit concerned about flooding in my little town. We've had some of the heaviest rainfall I've ever seen (including a ton of hail) trained on us almost solidly since 11am, and it shows no sign of stopping. It actually looks like it's been snowing in my garden. No thunder yet, as it happens.

I don't suppose any one has a small boat I can borrow if I suddenly need to escape?

A bit of a convergence zone going on where you are:

viewimage.thumb.png.c54499255c932b6ad3bf0786cd7bda99.png

6 hour accumulation map:

2017-05-18.thumb.png.7b7d9d4ccb697d66aceb5edf8916f5f2.png

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That explains it then. Thanks for that! I was beginning to wonder if some kind of end-of-the-world scenario was playing out on my doorstep for a minute there. I must admit I do like the sound of rain, but boy did I pick the wrong afternoon to do my shopping!

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