Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Mapantz]

Such promising skies, but alas, likely to be just drizzle. I just need some rain to be fair, my water butts are running on empty!

[matt111]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Such promising skies, but alas, likely to be just drizzle. I just need some rain to be fair, my water butts are running on empty!

Just reached here and just a bit of light rain at the moment. 

[Wivenswold]

Not a good time of the summer for imports this. The Channel is still cold which seems to knock the life out of storms. It's early doors still and with patterns seemingly getting stuck of late, no reason to think there won't be loads more to come. 

[Mokidugway]

First signs of instability appearing even here in the Arctic.  

[ThundersnowDays]

Not a single drop of rain today still 0.5mm for May so far.

[Dangerous55019]

Sadly (and as I expected) today has been a bust for this area... Still... There's always tomorrow 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Chris K said:

A bit lacklustre in the lightning department to be honest, but I don't think that was unexpected and the forecasts made were almost spot on in my opinion, especially the Netweather SR model in terms of precipitation. It can be easy to read it as more widespread due to the resolution of some models, but in reality it is always a nowcast situation keeping an eye on the radars.

A few of them took it far too far east, but then again the Canterbury area got big heavy showers which with slightly different timing could have been electrical. Same with our neck of the woods.

Im already calling bust for our area tomorrow and until we have some more organised congestion I think I'll pack the storm case away somewhere cool and dark 

 

edit: haha CONVECTION

Edited May 11, 2017 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Mapantz]

13 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A few of them took it far too far east, but then again the Canterbury area got big heavy showers which with slightly different timing could have been electrical. Same with our neck of the woods.

Im already calling bust for our area tomorrow and until we have some more organised congestion I think I'll pack the storm case away somewhere cool and dark 

 

edit: haha CONVECTION

You were correct the first time. 

[Raidan]

Through out the day had storms to the west storms to the east storms to the north everything missed here no rain stayed dry all day ah well more opportunities will come...I'm happy though as man utd made it to the Europa League Final so something to smile about. 

[Frosty hollows]

Meanwhile in France..a severe thunderstorm alert was issued for the Toulouse area earlier

[Raidan]

After watching the BBC Forecast looking like it will be dry tomorrow as well hopefully something hits but can see it being having to wait until the next convective period. 

[Mapantz]

Low risk, but a small chance of a Kent clipper tomorrow evening.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Low risk, but a small chance of a Kent clipper tomorrow evening.

I'll be in kempton park.

Kempton clipper?

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 12 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 13 May 2017

ISSUED 20:23 UTC Thu 11 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

As the frontal boundary continues to lift north on Friday, a slack surface pressure pattern will evolve near the low centre. Diurnal heating will generate several hundred Jkg-1 CAPE under a broad upper trough, with low-level wind convergence aiding the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for Friday afternoon and early evening, decaying after sunset. A low-end SLGT has been (reluctantly) issued, but some questions remain over both the extent of cloud cover and also a potential warm nose in the mid-levels that may limit convective depth, and hence markedly restrict lightning potential - it is possible very little lightning may occur in the SLGT area. Assuming that parcels can overcome this, then lightning will be possible, primarily within the SLGT area. Main focus will begin in the south of the SLGT area midday/early afternoon, and shift progressively north through the afternoon and early evening.

Over Ireland, the wrap-around occlusion may provide the focus for some embedded deep convection, particularly on the eastern flank with low-level convergence aiding lift. Some isolated or sporadic lightning may be possible, hence the inclusion of the LOW threat level here.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-12

[Dangerous55019]

The sky this morning has got that bluey/pinky/hazy look to it, that it normally gets whenever a storm is potentially/hopefully brewing 

[Thunderstruck]

Think I'm too far South East for anything today 

[Dangerous55019]

It's gone very cool and breezy here in the past half hour... And the sky now looks like there is mist and fog rolling in... Not a good sign 

... Hopefully this will change *prays to the weather gods*

[Azazel]

A rather marginal outlook again today - my main point of interest is a little area north of Leeds later in the day.

[Supacell]

I am unsure about today, and this is predominantly because of the forecasts I am seeing.

The BBC, Met Office and Euro4 seem keen on breaking out a line of thundery showers across the central Midlands this afternoon and push them northwards into Northern England through the evening with words like "intense" being used along with the risk of hail. GFS seems in agreement with this area as being the focus as it places the highest levels of CAPE here, but CAPE levels are not that impressive. Couple this with a lack of wind shear and the risk of intense "storms" seems low.

However, there is certainly a risk of heavy showers and indeed intense "rain" seems likely should the showers develop, the air is holding a lot of moisture. I do not see any risk of hail as I cannot see cloud tops attaining the height necessary to produce hail today and lightning activity is not likely to be that impressive.

Estofex does not even include the UK in any lightning risk zone and so I expect they are thinking that the "warm nose in the mid levels"  that Dan mentions in his forecast will come into play, either that or the cloud will be reluctant to break.

My thoughts, I hope Estofex are wrong and that GFS have underestimated the amount of sunshine that will come through and thus underestimated temperature. Obviously an increase in temperature will boost the height the clouds can reach and this may then bring the risk of more "intense" storms and the risk of hail also. Should cloud be reluctant to clear then it is likely that there will be no thundery activity at all. Thus I think the risk of thunderstorms today is completely dependent on the sun breaking through the cloud and lifting temperatures. If this happens then Wales, the Midlands and EA is at risk this afternoon followed by Northern England this evening - pretty much exactly the zone the BBC are showing on there forecasts.

Fingers crossed.

 

[ThundersnowDays]

I honestly think the best that will happen today is one or two showers with an odd rumble of thunder.

[Gordon Webb]

Sun's fighting to break through here will it succeed 

[Dangerous55019]

For the past two hours now it's been trying to rain... Trying being the operative word. It's not even enough to wet the ground or dampen the dust down.

Personally I'm ready to throw the towel in on this so called thundery breakdown.

Thats not to say that others won't get anything, and I hope you do, but for me, this whole thing has been a complete bust 

... Ahh well... Let's hope for a better thundery breakdown for everyone soon 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The problem looks to be sheer amount of cloud clover. Cloud is now breaking up further south on the coast... 

 

[Windblade]

Really can't see anything happening for me today. Not very warm, with pretty much blanket cloud cover all morning. Could get a mushy shower or two, but I very much doubt it will be anything more than that. Wish other peeps in more favourable spots good luck, but I think I'm gonna throw in the towel as well on this one and hope for something better soon.

Edited May 12, 2017 by Windblade

[weatherobsuk]

Looks to be a cell popping off north of Oxford? Had a brief spell of sunshine here in the Peaks this past half hour but it's back to mist and murk again for now.