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Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4

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1 hour ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

How i'd love to be a fly-on-the-wall at NATS tomorrow morning, i'm hoping that airlines are already placing contingency plans in-preparation for Doris with Liverpool, Manchester, LBA, Midlands, Doncaster/Sheffield all expected to bear the brunt of the strongest winds tomorrow morning throughout the rush hour. Not to forget the +50mph gusts around the other areas of England and Wales, on top of the likely rail and road delays.

Message to operators is to fuel accordingly and be prepared for extended holding. Diversion capability limited tomorrow so main diversion options for London limited to near continent, although Amsterdam expected to have strong winds too.

Birmingham most likely to be the worst affected simply due to the crosswind component. Leeds will probably struggle too with its runway orientation. 

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 Looks like I'm in a sweet spot. Won't be nice down at Crosby beach tomorrow morning. At least it's a neap tide. 

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8 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Worried for my OH in the Aire Valley tomorrow, like he was for me during our recent storm. I hope everything is OK for all of you over there. We could have done without "Doris" this week of all weeks!

Aire valley should be fine with this one, as its moved south enough that it should be 60 mph at the most, thankfully for us but not thankfully for others.

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Station 62095 at 53N/15.5W is down to 996.9 mbar now with a  SW wind suggesting that the centre is off to its north-west, although not sure if this can be taken at face value yet. 

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Looks like I'm right in the middle of this unfortunately. I'm surrounded by trees, one them is a massive Scots Pine fir that bends even in 40 -50 mph winds and although it won't fall on our cottage it could fall on the power lines..nasty. I'm expecting some major disruption as the Flintshire bridge will almost certainly be closed at some stage and The A55 is really exposed up around Holywell. Anyway I've already moved the cars into what is hopefully a safe place, and I'll move anything that isn't secure in the morning.

BTW, don't recall ever seeing an Amber warning covering such a large area.

Pete

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Im not advocating doing silly life endangering stuff, but if you want an open (tree and debris free) place to experience the wind, either Thurstaston Hill on the Wirral coast, or Oldfield Road in Heswall and Caldy Hill in Wirral may well be subjected to some of the most violent gusts. 

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Local forecast downgrades to the run of the mill windy spell. Max gust 53 mph so clearly evening forecasts like to downgrade. So now we got warnings for 60 to 70 mph gusts or 70 to 80 on hills  v53 mph. I think this what an earlier posted alluded too. Conflicting information... For the record I'm following GFS and Met office warning.

Edited by The PIT

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62095 down to 995.3 mbar; wind still SW

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Also 62105 at 55N/12W is at 996.7 mbar with a wind just east of south. from those 2 reports for fun I would estimate the current centre to be at 54.5N/18.0W . 

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52 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Aire valley should be fine with this one, as its moved south enough that it should be 60 mph at the most, thankfully for us but not thankfully for others.

Thanks for that, and I am thankful for that! My OH has his work leaving "do" tomorrow night, and although, happily, he is working at home tomorrow he still has to brave the vagaries of Northern rail in the afternoon! He will study the bus timetables, just in case...

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Flying to Iceland tomorrow at 6.15 am from Gatwick... pretty sure it's up to Scotland  before a 300 ° turn. A light breakfast me thinks!

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Not lasting too long as this zips across,but looking as the track shows severe gales,have to go back to February 12th 2014 for the last damaging storm.

Following day gave drifting snow.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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Looks like a windy day tomorrow where I am. It will likely be already very windy as I travel to work but most of the action will occur whilst I am in work. I think I will be taking my camcorder to work tomorrow as may be able to capture some interesting wind footage over my lunch break :) 

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Doris expected 53N/00E 974 by midday tomorrow.  That takes it into the North Sea south of Hull, that seems like a track further south than before. 

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11 minutes ago, TN26 said:

Flying to Iceland tomorrow at 6.15 am from Gatwick... pretty sure it's up to Scotland  before a 300 ° turn. A light breakfast me thinks!

Never as bad taking off into the wind as landing in it. I am an LBA veteran! Eat that breakfast, you'll be fine!

Edited by Spikecollie

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11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Doris expected 53N/00E 974 by midday tomorrow.  That takes it into the North Sea south of Hull, that seems like a track further south than before. 

From what I've seen most charts take the storm just north of hull  so maybe 50 miles or so further south 

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62095 now 993.3 mbar, still SW wind but now 33 mph sustained. 

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Hmmm conditions at first glance suggest that there is a possibility of a sting jet occurring as already mentioned (been watching to see which way the models will go). Quickly developing storm with an occlusion beginning to wrap around. In theory around the tip of the occlusion if the gap between the occlusion and the cold front is narrow you could get a sting jet.

There are one or two negative signs for sting jet occurrence over the UK in current forecasts. Firstly as Atlantic storms go it is not that big or deep, next the gap between the occlusion tip and the cold front does not really narrow until it starts to leave the UK.

Key areas likely to be south of a line from Liverpool to the wash with some models suggesting winds gusting to over 80mph with a second area Wales through to South East with gusting winds up to 60mph. With quickly developing storms being notoriously hard for models to pin down I would take those areas with a pinch of salt.

Slight risk of weak tornado on the back edge of cold front crossing the south east and maybe at the triple point crossing the borders (unlikely as the instability is not right) and by the looks of it blizzard conditions in the Glasgow to Edinburgh corridor.

Unfortunately or fortunately depending on your view its all best guesses based on modelling and there have been plenty of occasions where potential strong winds , sting jets or blizzard possibilities have been downgraded very close to the event.

 

Stay safe.

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Satellite imagery suggests Doris is developing a centre but not yet in an early stage of explosive cyclogenesis around 54N 19W, tracking more or less due east towards Belmullet. Will update on my assessment of explosive stage which I expect will be around 23z near the Irish coast. The fact that the centre tracks across land will have little bearing on the outcome, a very dangerous windstorm will develop for a wide swath of north-central England and north Wales as well as a few parts of Ireland well exposed to WNW wind direction. This is the key to your local forecast, I would think, more so than exact track, is whether or not your location is exposed to topographic channelling or downslope lee waves from a direction of about 290 degrees. There will be very sharp gradients between damaging and just moderate winds on that basis. Because of the rapid intensification factor, somebody's going to see gusts near 100 mph from this. My estimate of the track of maximum winds would be south Lancs to south-central Lincs, the northern edge of damaging winds a bit hard to estimate because of the inlfow of strong northerlies in the wake but something like Glasgow to north of Newcastle or Berwick. I'm sure we will have quite a range of reporting of wind effects because of the dynamics of this storm, check out your local topography and assess whether or not a 290 deg wind will be forced between hills, or blocked out without enough slope to allow lee wave formation. If you have a gentle slope down towards you from that direction and you're anywhere near south Yorkshire to east Midlands, look out. You could get a lee wave enhancement. 

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Updated amber snow warning

Issued at: 21:07 on Wed 22 Feb 2017

Valid from: 02:00 on Thu 23 Feb 2017

Valid to: 18:00 on Thu 23 Feb 2017

Heavy snow is expected on Thursday. Local accumulations at low levels of around 3 cm are possible, but accumulations of 10 to 20 cm above around 100 metres are likely, with 20 to 30 cm falling on hills above 300 metres. This will lead to disruption to transport and perhaps power supplies. The warning has been updated to include a greater part of the Central Lowlands.

As storm Doris moves eastwards across central parts of the UK on Thursday a spell of heavy snow is expected on its northern flank. This will accompanied by strong winds with drifting of snow possible. There is some uncertainty over the track of Doris and therefore over the extent of snowfall, but confidence is now higher for disruptive snow to affect the amber area.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Warnings_Rain&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1487808000&regionName=uk

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