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Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4


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Interesting tonight's local forecast has similar wind speeds indicated for longer period over night. XCweather doesn't agree. Another case of we shall see.

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This is a close call - go to about 25 seconds in.  

One positive then.

METEOSAT airmass imagery frames for today show  nicely the development from frontal wave into a depression, with baroclinic leaf forming as dry air intrusion (in red) originating from the lower strato

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12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

BBC weather showing wind gusts at 61 mph for here at the moment.

Should be interesting to see how this one develops.

Yes quite a upgrade for me here  was showing 40mph now up to 62mph gusts  mmm  we shall see

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To visualise a string jet... They dont always form even with intense storms, but when they do, they occur near the centre of a low that has rapidly deepened, usually as it reaches peak intensity, and can be seen as hooked streaks of cloud and clear slots wrapping in close to the 'eye' of the storm.

In this region the winds from the upper troposphere - near jet stream level - are descending down toward the surface. Occasionally they can retain most of their momentum on the way down and deliver gusts to 100 mph or so inland. More often the peak is  80-90 mph. 

Sometimes convection occurs in between the descending streaks of air, in a very tilted form with height - known as slantwise convection. These narrow bands of tall clouds can be another marker of a jet streak.

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Some talk of the Feb 2014 storm earlier...I hadn't realised that one was thought to have formed a sting jet

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tini

Guess it tallies with what was seen on the ground....even has its own Wikipedia page. We even get a mention...  ''Crewe railway station evacuated after winds blew roof panels onto the overhead electricity cables causing fires, the station was closed and 500 passengers evacuated.[14]''

Edited by CreweCold
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Some talk of the Feb 2014 storm earlier...I hadn't realised that one was thought to have formed a sting jet

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tini

Guess it tallies with what was seen on the ground....even has its own Wikipedia page.

Look at the St Jude storm, it had a sting jet over central England but really got going as it crossed over the north sea. The satellite had a black hole dry slot by the time it got to Denmark. 

s4Qbx9h.png

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Just now, Gael_Force said:

Look at the St Jude storm, it had a sting jet over central England but really got going as it crossed over the north sea. The satellite had a black hole dry slot by the time it got to Denmark. 

s4Qbx9h.png

That is impressive

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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some talk of the Feb 2014 storm earlier...I hadn't realised that one was thought to have formed a sting jet

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tini

Guess it tallies with what was seen on the ground....even has its own Wikipedia page. We even get a mention...  ''Crewe railway station evacuated after winds blew roof panels onto the overhead electricity cables causing fires, the station was closed and 500 passengers evacuated.[14]''

Don't remind me! I flew back to MAN in that one - mmllaahh!

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Hi res Hirlam goes for sustained 40-45mph winds across populated N England/N Midlands later Thurs morning

hirlamuk-3-45-0.png?21-17

Could be especially grim for coastal Wirral/Merseyside an hour or so earlier with sustained 55 mph winds a possibility

hirlamuk-3-44-0.png?21-17

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Hi res Hirlam goes for sustained 40-45mph winds across populated N England/N Midlands later Thurs morning

hirlamuk-3-45-0.png?21-17

Could be especially grim for coastal Wirral/Merseyside an hour or so earlier with sustained 55 mph winds a possibility

hirlamuk-3-44-0.png?21-17

It's going to be a wild ride here then. 

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Another thing to watch for, during development of a sting jet, is surface obs on the South side of the cloud head. If temperatures decrease rapidly, then cold air is descending, and the strongest gusts are likely in the same area.

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33 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The ECM wind chart shows 100 metre height wind speeds to be 60mph+ in parts of central England.

ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017022112_048.jp

Looks to be a firming model consensus of funnelling through the C.Gap: how strong might the gusts be?

60 mph for you Scottish lot may seem like a breeze but here inland that packs a punch  more of a concern though as you stated is the effect  the Cheshire gap could have on the gusts  I expect some areas could face quite a bit of disruption 

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52 minutes ago, Singularity said:

To visualise a string jet... They dont always form even with intense storms, but when they do, they occur near the centre of a low that has rapidly deepened, usually as it reaches peak intensity, and can be seen as hooked streaks of cloud and clear slots wrapping in close to the 'eye' of the storm.

In this region the winds from the upper troposphere - near jet stream level - are descending down toward the surface. Occasionally they can retain most of their momentum on the way down and deliver gusts to 100 mph or so inland. More often the peak is  80-90 mph. 

Sometimes convection occurs in between the descending streaks of air, in a very tilted form with height - known as slantwise convection. These narrow bands of tall clouds can be another marker of a jet streak.

As discussed in much more detail in the webcast I posted a link to earlier

http://www.eumetrain.org/resources/sting_jets_2012.html

 

Edited by knocker
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The gfs carries on the theme strong winds from the  north, north west of England through parts of central north midlands across to the east 60 to 70 mph possible but I expect these charts don't tell the whole story 

IMG_0475.GIF

IMG_0476.GIF

Edited by weirpig
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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

In that case I don't know what to suggest

Thanks anyway,I think I'm beginning to see what's going on. The piccie of the St Jude storm with the big black dry area over Denmark has helped.Am I right to think that the wee tip curling into the black area,the very centre of the system, is the sting jet?

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7 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Thanks anyway,I think I'm beginning to see what's going on. The piccie of the St Jude storm with the big black dry area over Denmark has helped.Am I right to think that the wee tip curling into the black area,the very centre of the system, is the sting jet?

I haven't really looked at that but yes I think so. That storm shown graphically here Fiona

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/n/18.5_PaulDavies.pdf

Edited by knocker
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Was hoping that this might be downgraded a bit when I got back this evening but the opposite seems to have happened with the Met office forecast, stronger gusts for a more sustained period. Seriously hoping my house stands up without damage.

Usually cycle to work in all weathers but think I'm going to give it a miss this one time, 50mph+ crosswinds does not sound fun at all. Although the alternative involves walking 25 minutes to the train station and I'm not sure if that will be safe either.

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