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Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4


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This is a close call - go to about 25 seconds in.  

One positive then.

METEOSAT airmass imagery frames for today show  nicely the development from frontal wave into a depression, with baroclinic leaf forming as dry air intrusion (in red) originating from the lower strato

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Well I would never disagree with the Met. :)

Personally for winds I would take a blend of what the MET say and what the available models show (GFS/ARGEPE/NMM etc). I find sometimes the MET are a little slow to change their meesage with an ongoing situation - in Feb 2014 it was clear to me 24 hours before the event that SW Wales would approach the 100mph mark, but MET only acknowledged this when it happened and issued red warning too late. 

I could see when I woke up this morning from a variety of models that gusts were going to top 90mph but MET were still at 80mph.

Don't get me wrong, not knocking the MET, it's a hard job but, just saying, if I was trying to forecast my own area, that's what I would do - take on board what the MET say but mix it with a cross-check on other sites. GFS normally pretty good at wind speeds inside 48 hours (perhaps less good with a sting-jet), not to be ignored.

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Personally for winds I would take a blend of what the MET say and what the available models show (GFS/ARGEPE/NMM etc). I find sometimes the MET are a little slow to change their meesage with an ongoing situation - in Feb 2014 it was clear to me 24 hours before the event that SW Wales would approach the 100mph mark, but MET only acknowledged this when it happened and issued red warning too late. 

I could see when I woke up this morning from a variety of models that gusts were going to top 90mph but MET were still at 80mph.

Don't get me wrong, not knocking the MET, it's a hard job but, just saying, if I was trying to forecast my own area, that's what I would do - take on board what the MET say but mix it with a cross-check on other sites. GFS normally pretty good at wind speeds inside 48 hours (perhaps less good with a sting-jet), not to be ignored.

Point taken but I would add that in a rapidly moving and developing situation it's quite impossible to predict max gusts in any particular area, irrespective what source you use, to any degree of accuracy.

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Man hurt head after falling in storm The North West Ambulance Service are currently treating a man who has fallen over and hit his head, after being blown away by the storm. An ambulance was called to London Road, in Stockport, at 10.15am.

A rapid response vehicle is still at the scene.

NWAS NHS Trust

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Just now, knocker said:

Point taken but I would add that in a rapidly moving and developing situation it's quite impossible to predict max gusts in any particular area irrespective what source you use to any degree of accuracy.

I can agree on that

well lets see how one model I follow does this afternoon - at 1pm, the latest ARPEGE has inland gusts from 70mph to 80mph right the way from Lancashire to Norfolk - that's very slightly up on the Met Office warnings and would likely tip the storm from a serious to a severe one for many more people.

arpegeuk-11-7-0.png?23-11

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