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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

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1 hour ago, Nick F said:

But the dew points look rather marginal for some and mean the difference of rain, sleet or snow.

IMG_0080.thumb.PNG.9ee27f760def7badb89fafc9f6cd9067.PNG

But as ever with snow forecasting, we won't know whether surface conditions are ok for snow over one particular area or not until much nearer, literally now casting for some, with such marginality. Though suspect east coast would sleet/rain.

What I don't understand is that I'm always being told that one of the key differences between a northerly and an easterly for the UK is that the 850's in the latter case don't need to be as low for precipitation to fall as snow, because the air is coming off a cold continent rather than having to cross a mild ocean, producing lower dewpoints and surface temperatures in an easterly. From what I can tell the continent is cold on Saturday and the 850's are lower than the recent northerly and yet inexplicably here we are talking about rain again right in the core period of the cold spell. Is this just a case of a global model being a bit imprecise with this type of detail at such range and a more accurate picture would be gleaned from hi-res modelling nearer the time?

Edited by The Enforcer

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Beginning to hate euro Highs, or whatever other name you want to call it,  with a passion...Imagine if it was an Atlantic HIGH, all that frigid air flooding south...in terms of future cold, gfs is worse this morning.

 

Rukm1441-20.gif

Edited by KTtom

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gefsens850London0.png

GFS is on the colder side of average today until the 17th (one of the very coldest of the set), before flipping to one of the mildest. There is already quite a bit of spread Sunday into Monday, so anything after that will of course be skewed further.

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Looks like the ECM may be going same way as yesterday's 12z. Attempting height rises towards Greenland.

ECM1-120 (2).gif

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15 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Looks like the ECM may be going same way as yesterday's 12z. Attempting height rises towards Greenland.

ECM1-120 (2).gif

Yeah it's still keen on heights towards our N/NW somewhere:D

ECH1-168.gif.thumb.png.56352b9e1f9f3b3ffcb48e754bcdf3ff.png

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Flatter than yesterday but better effort than GFS. Would go for ECM in choosing any pattern that far out.

ECM1-216 (9).gif

gfs-0-216 (2).png

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7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

There you go..

ECH1-192.gif.thumb.png.e9eaa558595c38df95b8d0acc0c7dc05.pngECH101-192.gif.thumb.png.8969032a5fcb3ae83daa949914be6832.png

Very nice - that euro high is the next step to be removed

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Just now, Dennis said:

Very nice - that euro high is the next step to be removed

Yep.. Let's hope the ECM's got this right:D

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5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Very nice - that euro high is the next step to be removed

Trouble is it's been there most of the winter and everytime the models try and remove it, it just seems to reappear and sits there. The slug just will not clear off

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8 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Trouble is it's been there most of the winter and everytime the models try and remove it, it just seems to reappear and sits there. The slug just will not clear off

True - we need more nothern flow - Lets watch 

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Very tough for people who have to forecast weather for a living at the moment. Short term with will it rain, sleet or snow? Longer term in what the overall pattern looks like. Thankfully most of us can watch with interest. Very tricky imo but very interesting.

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10 hours ago, Rob Walker said:

Not often in February I remember seeing a moderate easterly touching double figures under leaden skies... 

If it turns out that way its quite remarkable in itself 

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20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Pretty cold run from ecm for s half uk, especially se quarter through next week as continental flow stays slack

The ecm op brings some notable precip sat night through the s Midlands as the cold pool moves east to west - white or wet!  Model says the former. Still to early to be calling possible snowfall sweet spots though sledging in the east Pennines would seem a safe call 

Hopefully the midlands gets a well deserved dumping!!arpege model seems to be backing the ecm aswell in regards to colder weather lingering on into next week!!whatever snow falls could stick around for a few days!!

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20 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like the surface flow still easterly on Monday morning and the models seem to be holding back any mild surface flow into next week. The upper level temps at 850mb will be higher than the surface temps , which in it self is not unusual in this set up. Looks like the cold is going to be resistant with the push from the south weakening. ECM best chart this morning from cold prospective. GFS delaying now in 144 t reliable range. FI charts all over the place.  UKMO sort of in between land but looks like its eventual evolution will be towards ECM thinking and that's the view from over here. UK not going to turn mild with temps remaining on the lower side of average with no extreme.

 C

ARPOPUK00_102_2.png

Indeed and apologies if I keep banging on about it but this has been an ongoing pattern, mild incursions get overestimated by the models and then truncated as they come into the nearer time frame. It happened during the January cold snap as well. Something @Bring Back1962-63 has been explaining much better than I can in his excellent updates and observations.

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29 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Interesting. The CMA firstly went for a drop of the PV into scandi with Greenland heights, and the ECM has suddenly jumped to the exact same thing. Potential trend in the making. 

Yes, and for two runs on the trot now by the ECM. More muted this morning but could be inter-run variance, 12z will be interesting watching. Not time to give up on winter possibilites yet.

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I don't think it's been over-estimated really?

2 days ago for the 15th:

ECM1-216.GIF?12

Today for the 15th:

ECM1-144.GIF?09-12

It's just a slacker flow, and more continental based, whereas the first chart is breezier and more a straight southerly. But yeah, if the charts produced today verify, then there's no way 13/14c is on at all, we will be back at single figures for sure. I really like the look of the ECM at 240 too, definitely signs of something brewing!

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