Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure what there is to look forward to..... :closedeyes:

Summer:D

I wouldn't take those 6z cloudcover charts for Friday as gospel, I'm sure there will be some cloud breaks allowing sunshine to some areas..very pleasant temps anyway..low 60's F.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The London ECM ens barely gets below 0 on the 850's now to think 4 days or so they were getting close to or a bit below -5 and it was shown to last quite some time but as soon as ECM picked up the less cold signal ala February it's stuck with it

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.f98949eb9d9723683d3b46e146ee8636.png

 

Extended ens backs this up (sorry can't post link ATM.) - cold runs for London after D10 count for approximately 0 out of 51 ensemble members. GEFS maintaing a couple of colder possibilities.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The cold potential has really drained away but it shouldn't be a surprise really..par for the course..enjoy the spring warmth later this week. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Summer:D

I wouldn't take those 6z cloudcover charts for Friday as gospel, I'm sure there will be some cloud breaks allowing sunshine to some areas..very pleasant temps anyway..low 60's F.

Frosty I am not sure you can proclaim there will be breaks in the cloud as the evidence (from the models) suggest that will not be the case. Even historically a slack south westerly at this time of year leads to cloud and damp weather regardless of the temp it will feel and look awful. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Frosty I am not sure you can proclaim there will be breaks in the cloud as the evidence (from the models) suggest that will not be the case. Even historically a slack south westerly at this time of year leads to cloud and damp weather regardless of the temp it will feel and look awful. 

It's not happened yet. I was meant to see little sunshine all weekend and actually bar a few hours of rain was very pleasant in the sun. Tiny changes big impact. 

 

Spring is well and truly on the way :friends::D

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Surrey said:

It's not happened yet. I was meant to see little sunshine all weekend and actually bar a few hours of rain was very pleasant in the sun. Tiny changes big impact. 

 

Spring is well and truly on the way :friends::D

I noticed Frosty likes your post, but the evidence to hand is it will be mild damp and cloudy, of course it can change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps the rumours of the death of cold a shade premature:

gfs-0-240.png?12

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Friday is looking very overcast and damp.....

84-102UK.GIF?06-12

Any one care that the temp is 13 when the skies have a lot of low cloud and the air is damp?

96-580UK.GIF?06-12

96-600UK.GIF?06-12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO doesn't look too bad for the weekend some rain can't be ruled out but certainly nothing cold

UW120-21.GIF?06-17UW144-21.GIF?06-17

GFS at t144 is rather different to UKMO

gfs-0-144.png?12

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There will be some frosty ground next week if the Gfs 12z operational is right, it looks quite cold and blocked with even some snow flurries.

12_171_mslp500.png

12_186_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_186_mslp500.png

12_195_mslp850.png

12_210_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_222_mslp850.png

12_240_preciptype.png

12_240_uk2mtmp.png

12_240_mslp850.png

12_234_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_264_preciptype.png

12_264_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The cold potential has really drained away but it shouldn't be a surprise really..par for the course 

Maybe I spoke too soon..or maybe not:D..time will tell.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z op has followed the 06z control by going a good deal colder than the mean

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

Looking at the 18z from Saturday we can see how the mean continues to trend less cold compared to some of last weeks runs

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not really a surprise there is a bit of flip-flopping from run to run at this time of year; March is a bit of a wild card and usually throws a bit of everything at us. A difficult month to pin down anything conclusively more than a few days out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like trying to get blood out of a stone, that cold air has made it all the way to almost clipping the east coast, and then its gone, how many times have we seen that before then? 

 

Anyway I am just going to observe from a far for now.:D

 

 

ECM0-0.GIF

ECM0-24.GIF

ECM0-48.GIF

Edited by snowray
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The 12z op has followed the 06z control by going a good deal colder than the mean

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

Looking at the 18z from Saturday we can see how the mean continues to trend less cold compared to some of last weeks runs

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

Yes Gavin the Gfs 12z op is swimming against the tide and the next run will probably be completely different but I guess the door hasn't been slammed shut for coldies.:)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

High pressure building over the weekend and into next week

ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.f6301ea0c285394e365e62e74337e746.pngECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.e4f290a693091c709df31367689445f5.pngECMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.5b97c4a25d63805fec624ce630f15b82.pngECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.fb6c7cb74503dfbba9c325e396d26008.png

Mild-ish Saturday a bit cooler Sunday and Monday though temps recovering in the far west and milder for all again by Tuesday

ECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.0aa906685fc36b3d888490307c628940.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.f9200eb3cdf1be19e202841bfef32352.pngECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.c2f549d124c7959b6cc4424a667c2d67.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.7d8e107091d417b2fbffe8268e5ff782.png

All in all a fairly typical early spring outlook

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely, IF the Ecm 12z is right it's a fairly typical early spring outlook, however, if the Gfs 12z is right..it's back into winter with widespread sharp frosts and snow flurries / showers.:D

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM is much more like UKMO at T144 - GFS is wildly different

UW144-21.GIF?06-17   ECM1-144.GIF?06-0

and this leads to high spring charts a few days later

ECM1-192.GIF?06-0  

Winter's return has to remain the outsider. Chance looks to be missed. Nice for t-shirt lovers in the south, though

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 Chance looks to be missed. 

 

We are still talking a week away so there is still time for the outlook to change considerably during the next few days.

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z cold again when only looking at the 12Zs and not the vagaries of every run

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-0-312.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-0-204.png

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS 12z supports a spell of benign anticyclonic weather next week with chilly nights bringing a risk of frosts, mist and fog patches and fine bright days with variable amounts of cloud / sunshine.

21_168_500mb.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_216_2mtmpmax.png

21_240_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM op was on the warmer side of the mean not by much the peak of the lower 850's is -1 on the 13th

46456754.thumb.png.436e2b564f3f5e90256db576fb92140c.png

It does look like we'll see a rise in pressure certainly for a time next week in the south so drier and brighter here with the chance of some frosts - how far north any high pressure gets will depend on the jet stream indications from the BBC are for a NW/SE split developing next week

765675.thumb.png.da47d564c9e9a1365bcbdc6bc4381862.png35345.thumb.png.97fb7263402206c3edfd7677bf173f70.png

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM op was on the warmer side of the mean not by much the peak of the lower 850's is -1 on the 13th

46456754.thumb.png.436e2b564f3f5e90256db576fb92140c.png

It does look like we'll see a rise in pressure certainly for a time next week the south so drier and brighter here with the chance of some frosts - how far north any high pressure gets will depend on the jet stream indications from the BBC are for a NW/SE split developing next week

765675.thumb.png.da47d564c9e9a1365bcbdc6bc4381862.png35345.thumb.png.97fb7263402206c3edfd7677bf173f70.png

That could well be the final nail in the coffin for a mid march cold snap / spell.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM op was on the warmer side of the mean not by much the peak of the lower 850's is -1 on the 13th

46456754.thumb.png.436e2b564f3f5e90256db576fb92140c.png

It does look like we'll see a rise in pressure certainly for a time next week the south so drier and brighter here with the chance of some frosts - how far north any high pressure gets will depend on the jet stream indications from the BBC are for a NW/SE split developing next week

765675.thumb.png.da47d564c9e9a1365bcbdc6bc4381862.png35345.thumb.png.97fb7263402206c3edfd7677bf173f70.png

Is that BBC graphic from last night's forecast 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Is that BBC graphic from last night's forecast 

No tonight's see the spring thread

:)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...