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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
    5 hours ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    sorry to hear of your loss.

    and there are signs the vortex will drop into scandi area and the azores heights becoming pushed to the south west or even west.

    well thats the take on the ecm the other models do seem to be rather flat.

    but im still punting for cold start to march and even april as its not unheard of like april 2008

    the thought of a cold spell in March not to mention March fills me with horror.  it would be just typical of our climate to start producing the winter goods come the Spring, when it is rather pointless in having them by then.  I just want Spring warmth now.  Winter's had its chance and failed miserably.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    There does look to be an amplification in the pipeline for week 2

    just where it sets up and how sustained is the question

    wouldn't be surprised to see a solution which ends up similar to last weekend where a brief blast of winter is followed by more mid lat blocking 

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    5 hours ago, knocker said:

    No significant change with the EPS this morning. Still looking at the upstream transition and the dominant feature in the ext period is the transfer of the vortex to N. Canada with the GOA ridge leading to a weak meridional spasm with some ridging mid Atlantic and a trough orientated N/S over the UK. With the upper flow remaining in the westerly quadrant temps around average

    .ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.391044b4eaa2b68a2fd89a178783aa43.png

     

    That looks to me that the vortex is over Scandi side or siberian side.

    Well most of it anyway.

    with jet stream bit further south than the coming days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    12 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    That looks to me that the vortex is over Scandi side or siberian side.

    Well most of it anyway.

    with jet stream bit further south than the coming days.

    It is because that's the 6-10 anomaly. The transition occurs during the overlap between this and the 10-15 period so that in the later period, by T336, for example, the vortex is over N. Canada/ Greenland with troughs NE North America, south over the UK and some ridging mid Atlantic. I cannot post the relevant chart(s).

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It's not all bad news for coldies as I expect we will see at least brief periods of cold zonality and perhaps an Arctic shot or two during late Feb and early March plus there is still the mention of a prolonged cold spell towards mid March, albeit a small risk at this stage but I'm not anticipating wall to wall mild for the next 4 weeks..I think there will be something to please everyone.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    2 hours ago, knocker said:

    It is because that's the 6-10 anomaly. The transition occurs during the overlap between this and the 10-15 period so that in the later period, by T336, for example, the vortex is over N. Canada/ Greenland with troughs NE North America, south over the UK and some ridging mid Atlantic. I cannot post the relevant chart(s).

    Ok yes I see what you ment apologies 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS 12z now showing 16c to the east of high ground now on Monday if this stays on further runs maybe we could see 17c

    ukmaxtemp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    GFS 12z now showing 16c to the east of high ground now on Monday if this stays on further runs maybe we could see 17c

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Actually can't believe how humid it has felt even today, and the strength of the sun becoming ever more noticeable as we plough on through February. 

    Looking at the outputs now, its swaying my snow hopes fast towards hopes of an early plume and the start of convective season pretty swiftly. Roll the humdingers on that's what I say! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    GFS 12z now showing 16c to the east of high ground now on Monday if this stays on further runs maybe we could see 17c

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Yup spring has arrived although too be honest Winter never started. The lack of rain is going to be an issue if it continues. and there's nothing really showing in the models suggest this is going to change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Nothing much to add on the 12z thus far - a continuation of what we have at present for the time being. GFS is keen to shift the vortex back NW over to the Greenland area - if this verifies then any chance of a winter salvo is surely down the pan.

    ao.sprd2.gifnao.sprd2.gif

    AO and NAO all positive going forward, so nothing pointing to cold for me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    The late winter eye candy on the gfs operationals may have taken its leave for the time being but I'd be very wary of writing off a cold and/or snowy spell just yet there are a worthwhile number of ensembles on the the 12z 850's dropping down between minus 5 and minus 10 to keep it out there as an option. yes next week will feel positively springlike but anything beyond the next 7 days is pure speculation . IMO

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM clears that shortwave energy upstream and develops a low over the ne USA, this is key to how it develops that T168hrs output. The GFS keeps a train of shortwave energy which stops the Azores high from retrogressing nw. These differences start over the USA with how that Canadian high develops because that effects whether you clear that energy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    All the talk of next week being very spring like and yet the Ecm 12z is only showing very mild for Monday and thereafter it becomes cooler / colder.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    ECM showing snow showers for many northern/eastern areas at 216hrs, much at odds with the GFS.

    ECU1-216.GIF?15-0ECU0-216.GIF?15-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 12z looks pretty cold later next week with wintry showers and night frosts, some of us would see snow showers..much colder than the 00z..UPGRADE:D:cold:

    168_mslp850uk.png

    192_mslp850uk.png

    216_mslp850uk.png

    216_thickuk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    mmm the ECM 12z has a channel low moving into a cold airstream that could bring some fun and games for someone.

    couldn't be more different to its 00z output.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    @frosty

    indeed a much colder run from the ECM in your words

    BANK

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECM clears that shortwave energy upstream and develops a low over the ne USA, this is key to how it develops that T168hrs output. The GFS keeps a train of shortwave energy which stops the Azores high from retrogressing nw. These differences start over the USA with how that Canadian high develops because that effects whether you clear that energy.

    Perfectly described Nick, the Ecm 12z has dramatically upgraded (fast tracked) wintry potential compared to its 00z..for coldies sakes, hope it builds on this tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    It's not all bad news for coldies as I expect we will see at least brief periods of cold zonality and perhaps an Arctic shot or two during late Feb and early March plus there is still the mention of a prolonged cold spell towards mid March, albeit a small risk at this stage but I'm not anticipating wall to wall mild for the next 4 weeks..I think there will be something to please everyone.

    Oh for goodness sakes! There has been talk of cold spells and potential from certain quarters at the medium to long range all winter and whilst it might happen, why do we have to put timeframes on such potential? its boring reading about it to be honest and lets focus on the realitys that for the foreseeable, there is no cold heading our way and Monday could be an exceptionally mild day across the board.

    The only bit of good news for anyone wanting a late blast of winter(which I would welcome) is that the models are forecasting the PV across the Arctic to be quite strong so IF any SSW can help to create WAA to head towards the poles, then that strong PV will start to flood southwards and if we are lucky then any blast of cold could be quite potent which will mean despite moving into Spring, we can still get a decent spell of cold and snow but that is a long way off from verifying at this moment in time.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM whilst better earlier in terms of potential looks underwhelming at T240hrs with that bloated PV to the north. The 00hrs had a more fragmented PV at that timeframe.

    I think we'd need to see a lot more retrogression of the Azores high and the ridge then toppling more towards Scandi, not enough vertical in the ridging.

    Putting that aside we are seeing a divergence of opinion earlier and its all in relation to the movement of high pressure out of Canada, the ECM amplifies this which then helps to split that shortwave energy over the ne USA.

    ECH1-120.thumb.gif.21fcaf13c86c3d8edcb53d692d3b3405.gifECH1-144.thumb.gif.04c84023584a30358f58c7559b6945b1.gif

    Once you have that gap at T144hrs the Azores high can retrogress as the T168hrs output shows:

    ECH1-168.thumb.gif.542577270c04b5282a6549b86f97ba1a.gif

    Without that split in the shortwave energy then any cold will likely be delayed till much later or not happen at all and even then we still have problems with longevity of any cold because of the PV to the nw. First things first though, to have any chance of cold in around a weeks time the other models have to back this earlier timeframe.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    11 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Oh for goodness sakes! There has been talk of cold spells and potential from certain quarters at the medium to long range all winter and whilst it might happen, why do we have to put timeframes on such potential? its boring reading about it to be honest and lets focus on the realitys that for the foreseeable, there is no cold heading our way and Monday could be an exceptionally mild day across the board.

    The only bit of good news for anyone wanting a late blast of winter(which I would welcome) is that the models are forecasting the PV across the Arctic to be quite strong so IF any SSW can help to create WAA to head towards the poles, then that strong PV will start to flood southwards and if we are lucky then any blast of cold could be quite potent which will mean despite moving into Spring, we can still get a decent spell of cold and snow but that is a long way off from verifying at this moment in time.

    I actually thought my post was pretty fair with something for those who prefer mild or cold..I'm sorry you found my earlier post boring regarding mentioning cold potential but as the Ecm 12z shows, a return to cold could be sooner than expected!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

    All the talk of next week being very spring like and yet the Ecm 12z is only showing very mild for Monday and thereafter it becomes cooler / colder.

    I've got my eyes on that trend too. It's truly only a trend if it remains steadfast and is still there in another three to four days time down into t+96 timeframes or thereabouts. Even if the ECM drops it on a run or two, it is something to bear in mind. Alongside other global factors and upper air dynamics mentioned by others, around about the 22nd February onwards could be a cold synoptics WATCH alert for me. :friends: Winter is not done with yet! 

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