Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[blizzard81]

A decent upgrade on the 18z, northerly at day 9.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A decent upgrade on the 18z, northerly at day 9.

Indeed

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed

I'm looking forward to the morning runs now. Much more than I thought I would be lol

[Chris.]

About 5 lobes of cold pressure on the 500hpa charts that head east that cross the UK in that run!!  Might not bring the best conditions for us snow/coldies...but thats pretty impressive.

 

[nick sussex]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed

Frosty can I ask is your new avatar picture an ode to Knockers Sidney the squirrel? I don't know why but its had me really laughing, bless you! Anyway getting back to the models we are doing our best to remain interested which is hard going, I think we have to realistic and accept that the next week or so is going to be painful viewing as the Azores high pulls up its deckchair and theres no chance of cold whilst that's sitting over France. In around 8 days theres a chance we could see that pulled further west.

The MJO has been a bitter disappointment so far this winter and hasn't really forced much in terms of changes that benefit colder prospects, it could do the decent thing and do something to earn its stay in this thread. I admit I have been one of the guilty posters who has been following this  closely, piles of research papers later and all this effect on the NAO etc and its beginning to get on my txts, you know a bit like one of those z list celebs whose done bxgger all but seems to appear on the front pages of the press all the time.

Anyway lets hope the morning outputs can give us something other than a fleeting northerly to discuss.

Edited February 14, 2017 by nick sussex

[JeffC]

Seeing's believing....

[joggs]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Frosty can I ask is your new avatar picture an ode to Knockers Sidney the squirrel? I don't know why but its had me really laughing, bless you! Anyway getting back to the models we are doing our best to remain interested which is hard going, I think we have to realistic and accept that the next week or so is going to be painful viewing as the Azores high pulls up its deckchair and theres no chance of cold whilst that's sitting over France. In around 8 days theres a chance we could see that pulled further west.

The MJO has been a bitter disappointment so far this winter and hasn't really forced much in terms of changes that benefit colder prospects, it could do the decent thing and do something to earn its stay in this thread. I admit I have been one of the guilty posters who has been following this  closely, piles of research papers later and all this effect on the NAO etc and its beginning to get on my txts, you know a bit like one of those z list celebs whose done bxgger all but seems to appear on the front pages of the press all the time.

Anyway lets hope the morning outputs can give us something other than a fleeting northerly to discuss.

Tbh Nick,this has been a winter when alot of the background signals etc have acted a little strange to what we would expect.

Just wish we knew what was driving what and  the order of the coggs lol.

[MildCarlilse]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Oh no, not sure anyones in the mood to chase another easterly! Unfortunately we seem to be stuck at day 10 for any charts that show some interest.

I'm giving it a few more days to see if any of these charts actually move forward but we seem unable to shake off the PV to the nw and that makes things complicated as we've seen for much of the winter.

Unfortunately we're not seeing the MJO currently force much in the way of trop response something that was noted by NCEP in their update and even though the MJO is in record breaking territory in terms of amplitude its not counting for much at the moment.

I'm giving it to Friday to see concrete signs of some changes otherwise I'm going to close this book on winter 2016/17 and put it in the promised much but delivered  not very much category. Last winter was promised zip and delivered zip!

Agreed and that also suggests the models were more reliable last winter.

[Ali1977]

GEFS are pretty good on the 18z, not really been mentioned but I'd say it's a significant step towards a cold spell coming late Feb.

[jvenge]

Not too much to report from the GFS 0z. The UK showing a cool down at day 10, but isn't cold enough for snow. 

In the mean time, the warm up gets underway. I will see a lofty +2 today and then general agreement for +6 at the weekend and some teen temperatures in the latter part of the run. Time to dust the bike off.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomaly this morning continues with the suggested evolution of the last few days with the main vortex north of Scandinavia and the active subsidiary lobe N. Canada with the associated retrogression of the north American ridge. Thus a very zonal look to the N. Atlantic.

It follows from this that the det. run should not be full of surprises and sure enough it isn't Merely the run to run variations engendered by the slightly different day to day variations of the phasing of the conflicting airmasses within the long wave pattern.

So although we are generally looking at a N/S split, with the southern half of the UK remaining dry, in the westerly upper flow, there will be occasions when systems from the west will sneak in and even the odd occasion when the phasing will push the high pressure SW allowing some ducking and diving from depressions arriving from the NW bringing a transient Pm incursion. Temps whilst all this is going on around average or above with the odd blip. There would appear to be nothing sinister lurking in the woodshed for the rest of February.

 

[winterof79]

I'll take transient thank you.No change fro yesterday,signal for trough to drop to East there still.

[knocker]

The usual differences with the phasing and thus how much influence will the HP retain otherwise a similar evolution with the ecm.

[Frosty.]

Nice Ecm 00z day 10 chart, something to build on!

Hopefully with more tweaking we could end up with a decent Northerly towards the end of Feb

[Seasonality]

Just for fun, a potent cold plunge into Europe in FI.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

14 hours ago, legritter said:

As you say ,no clear evolution yet ,but I,m hoping a visit from the North at end of month ,today's gfs not the best for cold lovers ,think it's a case of just waiting (yet again ) for the Hunt ,great forum gang ,I, v been lurking of late as nursing my 94 yr old mother in law who passed away last week ,cheers gang .

sorry to hear of your loss.

and there are signs the vortex will drop into scandi area and the azores heights becoming pushed to the south west or even west.

well thats the take on the ecm the other models do seem to be rather flat.

but im still punting for cold start to march and even april as its not unheard of like april 2008

[Frosty.]

I mentioned about tweaking the Ecm 00z day 10 chart..if we could get something like late Feb / early March 2006 I would be a very happy squirrel!

Edited February 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

East of high ground could easily hit 16c on Monday I think 17c might be pushing it a bit

[jvenge]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Just for fun, a potent cold plunge into Europe in FI.

 

Yes, a few GEFS showing those options at that range, but to me that doesn't look long lived and would be fairly transient. Also, the air itself isn't cold enough to give something noteworthy (by regional standards). In my location, February is an interesting month. The daily high average is 0-1 degrees at the start and gets up to 6 by the end of the month, so a more potent setup is needed to deliver what was experienced in January.

The UK has this as well, just different scales, of course...

Ideally I like to be able to switch directly from jumpers to shorts and t-shirt, so I'm on the lookout for what allows me to do that :-D Not a fan of middle ground.

 

[knocker]

No significant change with the EPS this morning. Still looking at the upstream transition and the dominant feature in the ext period is the transfer of the vortex to N. Canada with the GOA ridge leading to a weak meridional spasm with some ridging mid Atlantic and a trough orientated N/S over the UK. With the upper flow remaining in the westerly quadrant temps around average

.

 

Edited February 15, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Here's hoping the weak meridional spasm (s) become stronger..hopefully winter 2016/17 will roar out like a lion with a potent Northerly!

[Seasonality]

3 hours ago, jvenge said:

Yes, a few GEFS showing those options at that range, but to me that doesn't look long lived and would be fairly transient. Also, the air itself isn't cold enough to give something noteworthy (by regional standards). In my location, February is an interesting month. The daily high average is 0-1 degrees at the start and gets up to 6 by the end of the month, so a more potent setup is needed to deliver what was experienced in January.

The UK has this as well, just different scales, of course...

Ideally I like to be able to switch directly from jumpers to shorts and t-shirt, so I'm on the lookout for what allows me to do that :-D Not a fan of middle ground.

 

06z showing transient efforts too. I'm not too keen on sustained cold weather later in February and March either, Warsaw has had a few such incidents in the last decade. But not seeing any shorts and tshirt weather yet either mores the pity.

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

But not seeing any shorts and tshirt weather yet either mores the pity.

Next Monday looks pleasantly warm on the Gfs 6z..the end of the run does too!

 

Edited February 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Looks good to me Frosty! Forecast maxes across the country are as follows for the next week (from the GFS 6z):

Today 12c
Thursday: 12c
Friday: 12c
Saturday: 12c
Sunday: 13c
Monday: 15c
Tuesday: 12c
Wednesday: 14c

So well above average for the time of year. Get any sunshine to go with it and it'll feel very pleasant. Spring is around the corner

[JoeShmoe]

Next week is going to feel positively spring like in any sunshine - bring it on !