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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

    ECM goes a little loopy on the longer term, with the Azores high attempting to link up with the Euro high at +240, however the other all pattern doesn't make much sense. In fact, the whole model looks a mess from +168!

    One for the bin post +168hr I think.

     

    +168hr                                                       +240

    ECM1-168_zcb9.thumb.GIF.c802a4b6b28e8e733adb02667ebd4631.GIF ECM1-240_izs4.thumb.GIF.bf3c258ef3926c1dbe057c9aac30a25f.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    OMG Booferking I'm in tears with laughter here. One of the best ever posts, yes I share your frustration with the MJO, though I'm still dubious as to whether we have a clue whats going on with the MJO. As for what phase we're currently in or what the forecast is the current flavour of the month the VP200 isn't infallible. NCEP were as certain as they can be that the MJO was robust and leaving phase 6 and heading into phase 7, normally if they think that VP200 is more accurately reading the MJO they say so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
    Just now, Weather-history said:

    Many winters?

    How long ago was December 2010? 

     

    Apologies, should of used a better term than many! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    OMG Booferking I'm in tears with laughter here. One of the best ever posts, yes I share your frustration with the MJO, though I'm still dubious as to whether we have a clue whats going on with the MJO. As for what phase we're currently in or what the forecast is the current flavour of the month the VP200 isn't infallible. NCEP were as certain as they can be that the MJO was robust and leaving phase 6 and heading into phase 7, normally if they think that VP200 is more accurately reading the MJO they say so.

    I wish someone would tell the models the VP200 is wrong lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    OMG Booferking I'm in tears with laughter here. One of the best ever posts, yes I share your frustration with the MJO, though I'm still dubious as to whether we have a clue whats going on with the MJO. As for what phase we're currently in or what the forecast is the current flavour of the month the VP200 isn't infallible. NCEP were as certain as they can be that the MJO was robust and leaving phase 6 and heading into phase 7, normally if they think that VP200 is more accurately reading the MJO they say so.

    Nick , this year the mjo, along with billion £££££ of computers, and the most knowledgeable of forecasters, the weather has made a mug out of everyone, forecasts jumping about as much as the computers, one minute it's a mild southwesterly for the next 10 days, the next day it's a cold 4 wks from the east, based on the mjo and strat forcings, it's the 4th winter on the trot now without any snow more than 1cm deep. 

    Just goes to show how little we know about the weather. 

    Let's see how we get on in the next few wks but I have so little faith in any forecast it means absolutely nothing this evening to see us in no man's land on the mods because in a few days time things will look completely different, probably right after the met office rewrite there long term forecasts. 

    Much preferred it when ones didn't try to predict the weather more than 3 days in advance because that way people keep there dignity and hopes aren't continually dashed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    Nick , this year the mjo, along with billion £££££ of computers, and the most knowledgeable of forecasters, the weather has made a mug out of everyone, forecasts jumping about as much as the computers, one minute it's a mild southwesterly for the next 10 days, the next day it's a cold 4 wks from the east, based on the mjo and strat forcings, it's the 4th winter on the trot now without any snow more than 1cm deep. 

    Just goes to show how little we know about the weather. 

    Let's see how we get on in the next few wks but I have so little faith in any forecast it means absolutely nothing this evening to see us in no man's land on the mods because in a few days time things will look completely different, probably right after the met office rewrite there long term forecasts. 

    Much preferred it when ones didn't try to predict the weather more than 3 days in advance because that way people keep there dignity and hopes aren't continually dashed. 

    Can't really argue with that post lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I wouldn't really call next week mild on the Ecm 12z, indeed it would feel cold in the strengthening SEly winds early in the week but it certainly becomes less cold with a few milder days although still with some night frosts & fog  once winds drop and plenty of fine weather with pleasant sunny spells as high pressure generally looks in control until near the end when pressure starts to fall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    28 minutes ago, booferking said:

    ECM says it all really and they have just added 3 new MJO phase signals and there called diddly-squat..:D

    ECH1-240 (1).gif

    MJO.png

    Can we therefore say that the much saught after MJO phase 8 is actually of no real use at all as a marker for a Greenland high?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Can we therefore say that the much saught after MJO phase 8 is actually of no real use at all as a marker for a Greenland high?

    It really is up for debate that,s for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    MJO and strat can't do it then maybe the key was the out of sync QBO - should have been Easterly not westerly!! Maybe a diff story if the other way round.  We had great early Siberian snow cover too, another fail!!  

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    I wish someone would tell the models the VP200 is wrong lol.

    Lol. I had a few hours free today so spent that time looking into a lot of research regarding the new " wonder" MJO forecasting tool. Theres no evidence  to suggest its infallible,  MJO events often exhibit different structures and theres no one perfect system to accurately forecast them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
    On ‎08‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 14:12, Tamara said:

    6) Finally, what we can deduce from all this is yet another proof exercise of what I often repeat. The teleconnections do work, but they do not always evolve to optimise the most desired result. But then that has always been the point - this forum has a natural bias, the science of meteorology has no bias.

    A reminder, not much more than a day old, for those who think who continue to think it doesn't work

    See you at the next cold spell, whether that is this winter or the next

    @Walsall Wood Snow Yes, its possible, pretty much as I described yesterday:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
    34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    MJO and strat can't do it then maybe the key was the out of sync QBO - should have been Easterly not westerly!! Maybe a diff story if the other way round.  We had great early Siberian snow cover too, another fail!!  

    Agree with the previous comments re QBO etc but have to take issue with your reference to the SAI.

    It was a marker for European cold - spot on for this winter! The bulk of mainland Europe has had few mild episodes and some of the cold ones have been exceptional.

    It is sad you were not able to share that but there is always next winter when the other pointers to cold may be robust enough to get it over the North sea.:)

    Just to add - did anybody look at the post I made last night about an almost identical phase/timing of MJO in 1988 - the Greenland high did not materialise till two weeks after peak of phase 8.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    MJO and strat can't do it then maybe the key was the out of sync QBO - should have been Easterly not westerly!! Maybe a diff story if the other way round.  We had great early Siberian snow cover too, another fail!!  

     2009/2010 had a easterly QBO so lets hope next winter has maybe LRF should pay more to QBO if it says no then go for a Normal run of the mill winter forecast. Some mild some cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    10 minutes ago, Nouska said:

    Agree with the previous comments re MJO but have to take issue with your reference to the SAI.

    It was a marker for European cold - spot on for this winter! The bulk of mainland Europe has had few mild episodes and some of the cold ones have been exceptional.

    It is sad you were not able to share that but there is always next winter when the other pointers to cold may be robust enough to get it over the North sea.:)

    Serbia had the coldest januar in 50 years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    34 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Many winters?

    How long ago was December 2010? 

     

    What has happened is that after a good cold winter in 2009-10, the severe December 2010, then another decent winter in 2012-13 and the cold end to that winter, the last three winters have gone significantly downhill and mostly back to almost rubbish again, (2013-14 was a complete write off, and an absolute shocker for lack of cold weather).  Winter 2016-17, although so far looking less mild overall than 13-14 and 15-16; unless we see a decent cold spell later this month or even into early March, winter 2016-17 will still be overall disappointing for most.  So surely the law of averages ought to suggest that we will see another decent winter before 2020.

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    23 minutes ago, Tamara said:

     

    See you at the next cold spell, whether that is this winter or the next

    Judging by your last sentence you clearly don't rule out the possibility of another cold spell this Winter. Do you still think the end of Feb/early Mar could provide us with a cold spell? Some say this is too late but the experience of Mar 13 (and that was late Mar) tells me that as long as the conditions are right it need not be. 

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    2 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    Judging by your last sentence you clearly don't rule out the possibility of another cold spell this Winter. Do you still think the end of Feb/early Mar could provide us with a cold spell? Some say this is too late but the experience of Mar 13 (and that was late Mar) tells me that as long as the conditions are right it need not be. 

    Tbh nobody knows.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    Well I'm glad I didn't hang my hat on the current cold snap being anything more substantial. While it is always exciting to see the Scandi high appearing in forecasts. Unless the positioning is just right and the genoa low is sturdy the high nearly always slips away southeastwards or simply morphs into mid latitude high. As more learned posters have already pointed out the genuine article is a rare beast indeed.

    Looking forward I have not yet completely given up on a decent cold/snowy spell between now and mid march and with the jet practically non-existent there is always the chance of some unusual or unexpected developments but at the same time I'm not holding my breath.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    In reply to the thread title "Cold for now but what next", hope this post doesn't get me lynched but you'd have to conclude "Spring" from this

    EDM1-240.GIF

    The absolute A1 position for maximum warmth as the end of February approaches (we're talking 15C if the sun comes out)- unless heights in Europe can drop more than is being shown.

    Cold - perhaps a minor northerly by D15 - that's being highly optimistic from a wintry sense though.

     

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