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On 03/08/2019 at 21:17, summer blizzard said:

I thought the +QBO was just peaking.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore.dat

According to my analysis using this data, it peaked in May.

A mean negative at the mid-levels should be in place by Dec, with the QBO state being descending easterly.

I seem to recall reading last winter that this may be one of the best states for polar vortex disruption via the top-down route, but I can't find the relevant post among the thousands that were made... 😵 - so I could be wrong 🤔.

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I expect GFS/GEFS is making too little of the +AAM as usual. It puzzles me that Ventrice, despite all his expertise, still takes it as gospel so much.

Not sure about the outlook for C Pacific trade winds. It seems to have a habit of overdoing those narrow belts of fast trades retrograding westward and I've noticed an upward adjustment in the very near-term WWB (i.e. +ve zonal wind anomalies) for the last couple of days.

Just my two cents.

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Good fun to see a MOAW* projection from a long-range model, despite the limited skill.

 

By the way, if one looks at the Pacific tropical zonal wind anomalies today (see in MOD thread), and compares to the Matt Hugo tweet shared in this thread last Friday, you can see a good example of GFS's tendency to overdo the development of stronger than usual C. Pacific trade winds (blue shading).

 

* Mother Of All Winters

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I wonder if the large adjustments regarding the weekend onward are related to this not being very well captured by the models.

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8 hours ago, Singularity said:

I wonder if the large adjustments regarding the weekend onward are related to this not being very well captured by the models.

Would imagine that the models wont be that wrong at their range with background signals.

It will be interesting to see how long the signals lags for. The sub-surface is weakening whats left of the Nino fast.

Edited by summer blizzard

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