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12 hours ago, knocker said:

 

This piqued my interest, the AC is generally > 0.9, but during the periods of lower predictability, is there a possible strat effect?

strateffect.thumb.jpg.fc7260c9b2815eeb7726286d69a102f0.jpg

The impact seems more important if a greater depth of stratosphere is affected by vortex weakening than just considering the 10 mb level alone.

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10 minutes ago, Interitus said:

This piqued my interest, the AC is generally > 0.9, but during the periods of lower predictability, is there a possible strat effect?

strateffect.thumb.jpg.fc7260c9b2815eeb7726286d69a102f0.jpg

The impact seems more important if a greater depth of stratosphere is affected by vortex weakening than just considering the 10 mb level alone.

Certainly an interesting observation.

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The gfs is having a rough time of late

 

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

 

 

Iguess GFS is a "busty" model because it regularly goes t*ts-up! :D

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Just now, davehsug said:

 

Iguess GFS is a "busty" model because it regularly goes t*ts-up! :D

Time for bed. Good night Dave.:)

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I guess the MetO updates through mid July which continually called for dry and warm weather have well and truly been wide of the mark. I'm not going to doubt the forecasters and data there, which far exceed my knowledge....but to myself and many on here, this outcome never really gained a massive head of steam did it? I'm just wondering what they can see (that we can't) which continually led to this forecast.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Jul 2017 to Tuesday 8 Aug 2017:

More prolonged dry and warm spells may become more prevalent across much of the UK through the end of July, perhaps continuing through early August. The northwest is still likely to remain more changeable at first though, with a risk of gales in the far northwest. There may also be spells of rain or scattered thundery showers at times in the south. Temperatures will probably be above average generally.

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