Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire

    Nice retrogression of high in FI, hopefully this shows in the morning 

    gfs.thumb.png.c036f12d3dc5f3eac1b0a8f44c543d56.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    The fax charts look a little underwhelming tonight for the end of next week.

    I didn't think they went out to 168 ? Where can I find them, I can see the 120 ( Wednesday) but that's it

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    A recurring theme now, this the best of the lot but this sort of wave break has happened 3 out of 4 runs in a row now.

    npst30.png

     

    I wonder if BA knows if this has any credence on the ECM EPS mean?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Computer says no!

    Ends up with MLB yet again. I'm thinking the models might be trying to tell us something!! There is obviously a background signal of some sort that isn't going to allow sustained heights at high latitude in our part of the world.

    Maybe the morning will bring better news but IMHO this ones moving away from us.

     

     

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

    I'm curious why this chart is creating so much excitement...

    ECH1-120.GIFa.png.387d4ca332cf8a212461278bc3b35ab4.thumb.png.df0787eb784c395355ba135cab4463f6.png

     

     

     

    bracka20091218.thumb.gif.56da3a55d17cf78ef8a9d949e23070ab.gif... when this is really the business?

    Hi and welcome to this zany forum :) Very good first post by the way. Puts things into perspective. The up coming weather beats mild mush south westerlies any day but it is not going to be anything special by any stretch of the imagination. I think the last couple of days on here have highlighted just how snow starved we have become over the last 4 years lol.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Although the surface pressure pattern on 18z GFS is not ideal for best cold air advection, upper block still there over Scandi up to day 12 and generally blocked way out to the end of the run.

    IMG_0068.thumb.GIF.a36feff95f7c68f197b0c7edd495bdd0.GIF

    MJO getting stuck in cold phases 8/1 could mean we stay blocked and cold for much of Feb IMO, with plenty of time for a colder easterly to evolve mid-month onwards.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    18z GFS could have added an extra trough disruption and sliding trough for the weekend but having developed such a vigorous low from the previous one and taken it so far NE it spends the rest of the run trying to recover the situation. By day 16 it's just about there...! 

    The trend with the overall NH setup is good - here's hoping it continues nice and smoothly tomorrow - and that the Euro models are right to keep LP further SW and allow in more of an easterly next week.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    The trend over the last 48hrs has been to turn a potential easterly into an almost certain south easterly in 6 to 7 days time. The difference between an easterly and a south easterly is immense. Easterlies can equal convective snow, south easterlies equal cold but dry. In time, south easterlies bring in higher upper temps from south eastern europe. They really are two different animals. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    At least the 12 EC high res stays tight to the mean to day 10, as the run brings in a colder easterly flow at day 10 whilst the GFS op (blue) perhaps warming it up too much with the greater Atlantic influence.

    IMG_0069.thumb.GIF.5254c5ff6b7c2f87f49f96ba26f15a1d.GIF

    The moral of the story is the GFS can often be too progressive at sinking blocks to the NE shutting down the cold flow and introducing the Atlantic cyclonic SWly flow. 18z backtrack to more blocked now.

    Plenty of mileage out of the block and cold air advection west over coming days I think ...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    At least the 12 EC high res stays tight to the mean to day 10, as the run brings in a colder easterly flow at day 10 whilst the GFS op (blue) perhaps warming it up too much with the greater Atlantic influence.

    IMG_0069.thumb.GIF.5254c5ff6b7c2f87f49f96ba26f15a1d.GIF

    The moral of the story is the GFS can often be too progressive at sinking blocks to the NE shutting down the cold flow and introducing the Atlantic cyclonic SWly flow. 18z backtrack to more blocked now.

    Plenty of mileage out of the block and cold air advection west over coming days I think ...

    I agree with your general assessment but it now looks to be a south easterly as opposed to an easterly.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Speaking in riddles on here is common place. 

    But the thing that makes me pmsl' is the divulge run-run op' that is of zero consequence when minor equate of meteorological synoptic s have major implementation for a maritime-island. 

    And while 'some' will reiterate' tweets ans other social media quotations id rather refrain. 

    I'll back my assumptions based 'and finalised on compare to -back- previous via model basis compare. 

     

    I'll post/elaborate on charts/snapshot s..spilt/1987-- current modeling. 

     

    And just to suggest current scenario are equilateral to past...

     

    And post is more than perceived for a possible comparable to the above mentioned- via easterly incursion. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I agree with your general assessment but it now looks to be a south easterly as opposed to an easterly.

    Depends what model and time frames you look at, winds seem to swing between easterly and southeasterly, don't be fooled by the pressure contours, as winds tend not to always blow parrallel to them either.

    Either way, both cold directions - SEly has advantage of shorter sea track if near continent is cold, though greater risk of less cold air mixing in from S Europe.

    But it's also looking dry from either direction bar some flurries, without deep cold pool moving west or Atlantic fronts pushing up against the cold and dry air.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    The trend is pretty much the same, nobody knows weather it will be an easterly or south easterly yet, the main thing is to get that pattern. At the end of the day we can't say for sure what will happen Monday let alone late next week. Keep calm people it's all looking up for now to get that cold air in place and see what develops nearer the time. Enjoy

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    The gfs ens are really showing a much colder trend from around the 18th Feb. Very consistent on this now.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
    18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Depends what model and time frames you look at, winds seem to swing between easterly and southeasterly, don't be fooled by the pressure contours, as winds tend not to always blow parrallel to them either.

    Either way, both cold directions - SEly has advantage of shorter sea track if near continent is cold, though greater risk of less cold air mixing in from S Europe.

    But it's also looking dry from either direction bar some flurries, without deep cold pool moving west or Atlantic fronts pushing up against the cold and dry air.

    Yes, 144 hours on latest run ..

    gfs-0-144_zxq3.png

    wind direction and thetaE for same timeframe.

    gfs-14-144_bef1.png    gfs-6-144_acb0.png

    There will be a raw windchill at the surface but it doesn't produce the goods that people are looking for.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Pert-2 gfs ens..

    Highlights the ramifications' for angular/placement of main cell hp.

    Laughable it maybe. But such minimal alignment and state of situ is PARAMOUNT to advection and final infer of cold top-middle- bottom. 

    And any upper air overheads (850 hpa) cannot possibly be determined until approximately +42/46 hrs.

    Reiterated;: diversión is complexof main player Hp' placement...

    So check and 'guess' on precipitation'and exact of cold calculations are non worthy atm..

    Given bigger picture prognosis. 

    However the coldest most interesting part of winter heralds. 

    gens-2-1-192.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    The gfs ens are really showing a much colder trend from around the 18th Feb. Very consistent on this now.

    Shown here (this at day16)...Fairly significant signal for the Greenland heights and slight hints of European troughing

    gensnh-21-5-384.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Without looking at the trop output tonight, take comfort that the double split into the strat is still there in the latest GFS run

    npst30-2.thumb.png.8aa8eba5d9934fe5d6d18fa459aff4f3.png

    npst30-3.thumb.png.c2ced6e218eeb49fca31045d3593a6a5.png

    So any first wave easterly that doesn't fully produce the goods is likely to be reinforced by a second wave. The Atlantic zonal train is likely to hit a recurring brick wall. All we have to be concerned with is the exact positioning of this brick wall. The better the tropical forcing positioning (ie MJO phase ) the better the success of any easterly or even a potential northerly down the line. Even more promising - a case of looking at these trends rather than individual outputs, especially at the 850 level. Obviously no guarantees but how often have we looked at better charts dissipating within T+72. It could be the other way around this time....

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Shown here (this at day16)...Fairly significant signal for the Greenland heights and slight hints of European troughing

    gensnh-21-5-384.png

    I don't get why there isn't meltdown over this! Easily some of the best height anomalies I've ever seen in order to get us some real cold! 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    I don't get why there isn't meltdown over this! Easily some of the best height anomalies I've ever seen in order to get us some real cold! 

    Aye, I'm beginning to think this may be a more prolonged below average spell when all said and done. Obviously, the further towards March we go, 'below average' cuts the mustard less and less for the south. However, I think we stand a fair chance of advecting some sufficient uppers at some point, in tandem with a more conducive height profile for convective or frontal activity...most of us crave snowfall after all.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Not been able to view the models in any detail over the last couple of days because I've been enjoying myself too much at Center Parcs (longleat) serious windchill when Friday's little low ripped through. I was a little concerned at a quick flick-through yesterday that things were getting downgraded but a good sift through the 3 big guns and their ensembles (where available) have been a nice read this evening. Very optimistic still for a cold turn post Wednesday next week.

     

    UKMO @ 6 Days

    UN144-21.GIF?04-18

     

    ECM @ 6 Days

    ECH1-144.GIF?04-0

    GFS (18z) @ 6 days - same timeframe - didn't see the 12z

    gfsnh-0-138.png?18

     

    Encouraging to see the Scandi High rebuilding (possible retrogression to GH) even if it does appear to sink a little after its first incarnation.

    GFS 18z - 10 Days

    gfsnh-0-240.png?18

     

    I've skimmed many a comment about cold and dry and the nuances between SE and Easterly airflow but HEY! This is so much better than the usual Zonal. We have a real chance here over the next few weeks of seeing something special, I'm reminded of Steve Murr's 3 cycles. Tonight's runs show we are in the game for all of them. We might fail the first hurdle but we're in for the next and the next. It's a good place to be for the snow-starved UK.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    850 temps at T+120 from UKMO not quite as cold as anticipated - but by T+144 the cold pool over Scandi will have moved westwards.

     

    5896797f2774d_GHT850_EUROPA_120-1.thumb.png.6fd2230573e1317ed207c2d1725d5bd2.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Another westward shift by 132 and the Atlantic being held back to the NW, this is another step in the right direction.Colder with some snow flurries pretty much anywhere.

    IMG_4188.PNG

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...