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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    2 minutes ago, Tristrame said:

    To be fair to MVH and Ian F

    Theyre only reporting what the tools in front of them (and in Ian F's case Met office internal discussions) say in a character limited tweet 

    Models are changing every day though like the weather pardon the pun so you'd expect Ian F and MVH to do likewise 

     

     

     

    Point is though the operationals always lead the way rather than the ensembles with regards to an E,ly as I have been harping on about for many days now. Im just disappointed the likes of MVH, Ian F took all the model output as gospel. Dare I say one of these situations that you need to use some forecasting instinct based on experience of following the behaviour of the NWP!

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    Snow showers SE England,East Midlands,and Yorkshire at T168

    C.S. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    58 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:

    regarding model confidence this winter i tend to go in this order

    UKMET, GFS/GEM, ECM 

    Not saying your wrong. But do the verification stats support this? Also depends on verification at day 3 or 5 or 8 etc. Numbers don't lie.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
    3 hours ago, TEITS said:

    Point is though the operationals always lead the way rather than the ensembles with regards to an E,ly as I have been harping on about for many days now. Im just disappointed the likes of MVH, Ian F took all the model output as gospel. Dare I say one of these situations that you need to use some forecasting instinct based on experience of following the behaviour of the NWP!

    Almost appears to be the case of 'computer says no' with the professionals.   A little more human thought/ analysis would I think be more respected and appreciated.  It can't be denied that a few commentators on here have disagreed with the computers many times and have been proven correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    Variation of a theme. There will be runs where it is further south and further north, and the uppers are good and the uppers are not so good, it is the trend you need to see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Some off topic posts have been hidden, Please use the model/moan thread for chit-chat.

    Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    i best not say what I think so I'll post this - you can probably gauge from the picture at 228 as too if it's going wellor not on this run. GEFS will hopefully follow the EPS.

    IMG_4154.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Back on topic a disappointing -6Z, similiar to the ECM. However im not worried yet unless this becomes a trend on the 12Zs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    Not a bad run from the 06z. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GEFS mean singing a similar tune, although probably with not so much cold into central Europe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

    Ecm is a huge concern. I will be brief and to the point on this one as I have a job to go to lol. My prediction for the day is as follows. The GFS 06z will still show the Easterly eye candy but the 12z runs will revert to the ecm way of thinking. Seen this so many times over the years. Crewe beat me to it earlier with his comments about the azores ridge spoiler. It is this that looks like scuppering the Easterly as it hinders trough disruption into France.  The azores high is a real pain in the gonads. 

    Looks like I was a little too optimistic lol. Even the 06z run smells the coffee. I expect the 12z runs to carry on the downgrade route.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

    What has changed across all models over the last few days is the vigorous artic high pushing south and west and forcing the main block westwards has been tempered.   However plenty of time for changes and the second half of february could yet be interesting. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Still seeing short term upgrades re snow potential and the mid to fi range (post day 8 ) trending to mid lat block although the south of the uk could benefit from an unpredictable euro trough to tighten the flow 

    Fair chance that a different trend could emerge for the 10/14 day period as singularity alluded to earlier

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Looks like I was a little too optimistic lol. Even the 06z run smells the coffee. I expect the 12z runs to carry on the downgrade route.

    You said this the other day and yet all we have seen is standard variation of the same theme. And as it has been pointed out this run still produces "snow"

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Still seeing short term upgrades re snow potential and the mid to fi range (post day 8 ) trending to mid lat block although the south of the uk could benefit from an unpredictable euro trough to tighten the flow 

    Fair chance that a different trend could emerge for the 10/14 day period as singularity alluded to earlier

    Yes, it looks to me like we really needed that wave 2 upwelling to be strong as per the GFS the other day, The strat vortex going back over the pole is just going to be replicated in the trop and the Jet is just going to be too strong now and the block will collapse.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    Not a bad run from the 06z. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GEFS mean singing a similar tune, although probably with not so much cold into central Europe.

    Yes it isn't bad at all. Good snow cover for you if it comes off. Had a little top up of the white stuff yesterday but tbh all it did was hide some of the dirty old snow and dog turd and fag end encrusted sheet ice. So that way you end up with "surprises" hiding under the snow. Looks like another colder spell for parts of Europe is pretty much certain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    You said this the other day and yet all we have seen is standard variation of the same theme. And as it has been pointed out this run still produces "snow"

    A bit of a dusting, yes. However, trying to dissect a precipitation event at that range is a little pointless anyway.

    gfs_6hr_snow_eur_30.png

    gfs_6hr_snow_eur_29.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    You said this the other day and yet all we have seen is standard variation of the same theme. And as it has been pointed out this run still produces "snow"

    And the theme is the watering down of the easterly - a little like what happened last month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    The 6z is close enough in terms of trend, we need some luck as always on these isles with the orientation of the high but I don't see any downgrades that people talk of, just variations on a very complex scenario that we KNOW the models struggle heavily with as it's a rare occurrence we get a big scandi high in winter.

    We should wait and see rather than being so reactive to individual runs, you can guarantee the 12z's will show another variation, people expecting a raging easterly with with snow drifts are pretty much always going to be disappointed.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Why not to take one run at face value:

    00z
    gfsnh-0-360.png


    06z
    gfsnh-0-360.png?6

    Totally different.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    And the theme is the watering down of the easterly - a little like what happened last month.

    To be perfectly honest, other than a few rogue Op runs, I don't think there was ever a strong easterly showing this time. Some disagree and focus on the Operations only. That's their choice. However, as we heard via Twitter from IF and Matt, this mornings operational ECM was on the mild side and at that stage people said look at the means.

    Operationals aside, nothing has really changed in the ensembles and means for the past few days. Below average and fairly dry is the form horse (weak easterly). There is a realistic chance that the east and south east could see something more and with it some snow. Low chance for the south west and north west.

    Of course, can change....

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Well gfs powers a bit of jet in fi. Not  seen that before. 

    Before that gfs is comfortably in the envelope of the easterly.  

    Beyond t144 is as always subject to change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    11 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    To be perfectly honest, other than a few rogue Op runs, I don't think there was ever a strong easterly showing this time. Some disagree and focus on the Operations only. That's their choice. However, as we heard via Twitter from IF and Matt, this mornings operations was on the mild side and at that stage people said look at the means.

    Operationals aside, nothing has really changed in the ensembles and means for the past few days. Below average and fairly dry is the form horse (weak easterly). There is a realistic chance that the east and south east could see something more and with it some snow. Low chance for the south west and north west.

    Of course, can change....

    I am actually beginning to think that the west/south west & Wales will do better for snow than the east. Fronts look like pushing in from the atlantic much quicker than the models were predicting over the last couple of days. I am referring to the 9/10 day timeframe.

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