Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
    11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Too many knee jerk reactions this evening, there is just as much support today on various output as there was yesterday plus a better ( colder ) MO update, at least for the east of the uk..let's wait and see what happens in the coming days..I'm seeing positive signs that we will see a cold block developing favourably for the uk during the next few weeks. 

    Not so things have clearly been shoved back further into FI. As for the Meto update that was obviously based on last night's model runs.

    Having said that the trend is still good but I think where frustration kicks in is we are on borrowed time once we get towards mid month

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    De Bilt ENS on the 06z run and now the latest 18z. Similar amount go cold as this morning, but the Op now in the middle 

    IMG_4128.PNG

    IMG_4129.PNG

    I'd actually say tonights ENS are better as less mild runs and a more distinct drop off in temps and less spread - for de Bilt anyway.

    Edited by Ali1977
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Must add this one to the discussion. Thoughts @knocker @johnholmes?

    814day.03.gif

    Very blocked. 

    Still looking interesting from mid month, looking forward to seeing this unfold.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    We are close to something special but something is just missing for me - just not convinced that the Atlantic trough will get close enough to the continental cold to force an undercut of cold into the precipitation and that leaves us in either a slack continental cold feed or cold rain (possibilities for higher ground Midlands north) 

    I take it you mean in the first part of Feb?, you have to think there will be more opportunities down the line, that high doesn't look like its going anywhere fast, even with some of the most Atlantic influenced GEFS members, the high is within reach.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    We are close to something special but something is just missing for me - just not convinced that the Atlantic trough will get close enough to the continental cold to force an undercut of cold into the precipitation and that leaves us in either a slack continental cold feed or cold rain (possibilities for higher ground Midlands north) 

    This is what I am seeing and neither of those options would be welcome after the virtually snowless winter thus far. I have been quite pessimistic so far this evening. However, I do not rule out the possibility of quite major upgrades on tomorrow morning's runs. I would only put this at around a 20% chance though.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I take it you mean in the first part of Feb?, you have to think there will be more opportunities down the line, that high doesn't look like its going anywhere fast, even with some of the most Atlantic influenced GEFS members, the high is within reach.

    Yes - next 10/12 days, beyond that, no decent indication of how things will pan out. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level

    Well it didn't take long for another interesting week of model watching to appear,  at least this winter has given us massive amounts of eye candy...shame that so far none of them have really produced anything noteworthy in terms of snow. 

    What concerns me from a cold lovers perspective, is that even if we do get this Easterly or ESE feed coming in, there is a distinct lack of cold uppers associated with it/ 

    Case in point...

    GFS Control @ 300 looks like this on the 12z run

    gens-0-1-300.png

    On the face of it, that looks like some serious cold, but look at the uppers for the same time frame..

    gens-0-0-300.png

    A thin slither of -8 uppers just about reaching the UK

     

    There are numerous other runs on the 12z that show something similar....

    gens-2-1-324.png

    That run looks to be loaded with cold...but again the uppers for the same timeframe..

    gens-2-0-324.png

     

    If we really do get charts that look anything like this in 2 weeks time and we get uppers not dipping below -5 then we might as well give up hope of ever getting a decent snowy spell of weather

    There's loads of other runs that look very similar...great looking charts but no real cold uppers.

    Story of this winter is that we've had some fantastic HLB BUT ALWAYS SEEM TO BE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THINGS.

     

    I think that for once we are going to see some great looking charts, but alas IMO that the associated uppers will be far too mild and we'll all be sitting scratching our heads wondering what the hell went wrong.

     

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Easterly quadrant flow favoured by day 10 - but not a done deal by any means. 

    IMG_4131.PNG

    Edited by Ali1977
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I think theres a danger of assuming the ECM op is correct and that its evolution will verify. Theres still no agreement even with the block in its early stages at T96hrs so whether any of the big 3 currently have the correct solution is open to debate.

    Aswell as this its not a case of just a narrow window of opportunity so as much as I'm known for the odd tantrum in here I've decided not to subject other members to this for the timebeing.

    We do have the MJO on side and recent strat warmings so at least have cause for some optimism.

     

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

    At just 84 hours!

    gfs-0-84.png?18

    gfs-0-90.png?12

    I know a remarkable difference in what is considered a reliable timeframe, this will probably lead to less undercutting of the 'block' which would likely not help advection of cold air west once the Scandi high has developed sufficiently. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Yes, hopefully 18Z has right idea, leaning towards ECM for Sunday, washout low gone? but is it correct, it could be back

    gfs-0-90.png?18ukprec.png

    Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Oh dear! The scandi high gets a battering on this run. Bad trends so early in the run.

    Edited by blizzard81
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Sunday's low much shallower on GFS 18z 

    Plenty of cape with slightly negative lifted values around the south & west and over much of Ireland though by the afternoon so heavy, thundery showers might get blown inland on the breeze especially near the coasts where cape remains the highest from Saturday evening onwards. 

    image.jpeg

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-12 09:20:25 Valid: 12/05/2021 0600 - 13/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 12TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Thunderstorm Safety: How to avoid being struck by lightning

      What is the best thing to do if you are caught in a thunderstorm, in the park, on a ramble, playing golf or at the beach? Predicting lightning and where is safe? Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Heavy showers and the risk of thunderstorms continues this week

      The mixed weather continues across the UK. Temperatures staying in the teens but there will be warm sunshine. Heavy downpours move by and the risk of thunderstorms remains. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...