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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    RIGHT, on a different note the weather models - not a bad set of 12zs but not ideal neither as the Scandy high seems to have sunk slightly as a generic statement. Not sure what the ECM will show, but I Defo haven't got my hopes up.

    We need the lows coming into the UK over the weekend to move SE/E not NE, this will help the heights to stay towards Northen  Scandy.

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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Are there signs that the cold will build before it 'leaks'  west in full around mid month?  Signs of potential slow up showing but still overall looking very good with huge build up to E and NE developing.  UKMO has the slider at t144 punching further east but still disrupting with negative tilt.  Is GFS picking up that the main solution will eventually retrograde to a GHP?  

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    It will get windy and wetter this weekend and then colder and hopefully snowier looking at the 12z runs this afternoon.....:cold:

    20170201_174416.png

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    To remove deleted post.
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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    RIGHT, on a different note the weather models - not a bad set of 12zs but not ideal neither as the Scandy high seems to have sunk slightly as a generic statement. Not sure what the ECM will show, but I Defo haven't got my hopes up.

    We need the lows coming into the UK over the weekend to move SE/E not NE, this will help the heights to stay towards Northen  Scandy.

    I'm thinking it will be similar to the GFS. I can't see a repeat of this morning.

    Can't post, cos on my phone, but the 12z temp mean is broadly similar to the 0z and 6z. Keeping the coldest of the air near Romania. Still a shot for the potent stuff to get further, but it's the outside outcome at the moment (current output).

    For me, I either chase snow or a nice early Spring. Well and truly bored of ice days.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I have found a slight irritation with the GFS 12hrs run and that's the shortwave which instead of going se sits there over the UK and phases with the upstream troughing between T144hrs and T168hrs.

    This manages not to become a major spoiler because the upstream troughing sharpens up and absorbs this without too much eastwards pull to that troughing however you'd prefer to see this shortwave go se and not hang around.

    That shortwave irritation delays the cold advection westwards, anytime you see a shortwave in this type of set up hanging around over the UK you have to view it as an unwanted complication. The only shortwave we want is one that cleanly ejects se'wards into say France, this can also help give a boost to low heights over southern Europe and help the cold westwards.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

    I think you like pain, Nick. lol

    Its for the very reason I don't like pain that I want that shortwave to do one! lol clearing se great hanging around over the UK no we don't want to see that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    It's fascinating looking at how the ensemble line graph regarding 850s ties in with the Op from the 12z

    At face value the 850s look milder, but that (on the op at least) is due to the orientation of the block, rather than a raging Zonal flow incoming, small changes in the orientation could have quite significant influences on how the ensembles appear with temps at 850

    850s line graph

    graphe3_1000_312_139___.gif

    Orientation of the block is key to the warmer 850s
    240.png

    And at day 7/8/9/10 and beyond the details of the block orientation will be open to change

    In summary, and very cliche, many many more runs needed!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I have found a slight irritation with the GFS 12hrs run and that's the shortwave which instead of going se sits there over the UK and phases with the upstream troughing between T144hrs and T168hrs.

    This manages not to become a major spoiler because the upstream troughing sharpens up and absorbs this without too much eastwards pull to that troughing however you'd prefer to see this shortwave go se and not hang around.

    That shortwave irritation delays the cold advection westwards, anytime you see a shortwave in this type of set up hanging around over the UK you have to view it as an unwanted complication. The only shortwave we want is one that cleanly ejects se'wards into say France, this can also help give a boost to low heights over southern Europe and help the cold westwards.

    Nick, surely the shortwave pattern will not be "nailed" until we get down to 72/96 at least and although we may get a taste at around 120, at 168 its open to serious fluctuations.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    Nick, surely the shortwave pattern will not be "nailed" until we get down to 72/96 at least and although we may get a taste at around 120, at 168 its open to serious fluctuations.

    Yes but you don't want the models to start playing with leaving that shortwave there. Because then you rely on the sharpness of the upstream troughing to absorb that without drama. My first rule of easterlies, less to go wrong is always better regardless of whether the models overcome that initially. We shouldn't assume everything will fall into place at the longer range, so stronger early foundations is the way to go and its also less stressful!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    looks wrong? like the look of it though, with no washout Sunday low, being modeled on other models

    ECM1-96.GIF?01-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    At 120 ECM has a nicely orientated strong high lat block to the east, where we go from here.....

    240 1.png

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    My confidence has taken a huge knock after viewing the meto update and the ukmo this evening..

    Was hoping to wake up to better news..

    I

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM v GFS and UKMO at t96 no deep low what so ever

    ECM                                                              GFS                                                             UKMO

    ECMOPEU12_96_1.pngGFSOPEU12_96_1.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.png

     

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    At 120 ECM has a good strong high lat block to the east, where we go from here.....

    240 1.png

    Too far east in my opinion. 144 should see us in the warm sector with a south-westerly flow.

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    My confidence has taken a huge knock after viewing the meto update and the ukmo this evening..

    Was hoping to wake up to better news..

    I

    Feel a bit like that myself 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    My confidence has taken a huge knock after viewing the meto update and the ukmo this evening..

    Was hoping to wake up to better news..

    I

    Meto text update not too bad with cold east - could mean battleground, they have never gone for a brutal Easterly though and its the ECM 144 thats has dented my confidence in one of those more so.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Variations of a theme, until we get some consistency, no forecast at day 6/7 is certain

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    It is laughable really, this morning the worry was that cold pool would be too slow and messy to get to us, the ECM this evening if anything is too quick and also too east for us.

    ECM1-144.GIF?01-0

    An easterly could still develop as the low disrupts but the chance of a cold and snowy easterly has gone for now if the ECM is right. That said the difference between this run and this mornings is stark. 

    Oh look it does...

    ECH1-216.GIF?01-0

    Luckily we have little agreement.

    UW144-21.GIF?01-18   gfs-0-144.png?12

    The GFS probably looking the safest route though even that drags the cold pool more north west than west. The UKMO cold pool looks over developed and hence could be unpredictable in its movement.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    panic,panic???Hang on they're all going down the same cold route

     

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECM1-72.gif

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_UW72-21.gif

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-0-72.png

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    IMO we have a higher chance of a cold easterly landing with the high centred to far north, rather than to far south (in the mid range) a sinking high has little chance of delivering meaningful corrections, whereas corrections west are slightly easier to achieve.

    Greece/Turkey nice and warm

     ECMOPEU12_144_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Not surprising - we've just got a milder OP instead of the cold ones we've had for the last few (remember mild still outweighs cold on the ensembles!). As the days get ever closer we will find out what way this will go. The met can't even forecast Friday's low with confidence yet, so what chance do they have at a week away??!

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