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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    If this isn't a huge cold outlier I'd be surprised.  This beats the ECM run of yesterday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Just a note to some of you chasing the deepest cold pool - if you want a -11/-15 chunk of uppers to get here then you don't want to see a segment of vortex around -16/-20c hurtling west towards the North Sea - it won't get here as a shortwave will develop ahead of it as it reaches the sea and it will deflect north west 

    to advert that pool which would bring decent snowfall (-10/-15c) you need a cold pool to bleed off that really cold segment and advert west preferably across the land mass rather than the baltic and North Sea  as that will also moderate those uppers.

    it really is a tightrope walk to get that cold enough cold pool this far 

    Good point, are you still comfy on your fence though?  If the ENS back this up then it is a significant swing, I'm still not confident they will.  The METO long range may read better today though, now they are mentioning the possibilities.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Just a note to some of you chasing the deepest cold pool - if you want a -11/-15 chunk of uppers to get here then you don't want to see a segment of vortex around -16/-20c hurtling west towards the North Sea - it won't get here as a shortwave will develop ahead of it as it reaches the sea and it will deflect north west 

    to advert that pool which would bring decent snowfall (-10/-15c) you need a cold pool to bleed off that really cold segment and advert west preferably across the land mass rather than the baltic and North Sea  as that will also moderate those uppers.

    it really is a tightrope walk to get that cold enough cold pool this far 

    So how did the historical events happen then? Surely the same reasoning should apply then as it does now.

    Shortwaves can be our friend, Feb 2005 dropped a foot of snow in oldham from a developing system from the east

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    If this isn't a huge cold outlier I'd be surprised.  This beats the ECM run of yesterday.

    Look at the bigger picture, cold actually isn't as extreme for Europe as some output yesterday. Might not be a massive outlier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Absolutely stunning. 

    IMG_1758.PNGIMG_1759.PNG

    Well that's what I call top chart you just never no What's around the corner but I'm liking what we are seeing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Much eye candy by D10!:cold:

    gfs-0-240.png

    gfs-1-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Look at the bigger picture, cold actually isn't as extreme for Europe as some output yesterday. Might not be a massive outlier.

    It's the longevity and possibility of a Block afterwards to our NW that is interesting, not quite as cold uppers though correct.

    Spoke too early, however next week is still unknown really so beyond that is deep FI. Lets see where the ENS go.

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    53 minutes ago, craigore said:

    Can anyone tell me why my bbc weather app is showing temperatures of 8c  in 10 days time when the 3 main mods are all showing a cold easterly by then..??

    There must be a lot of uncertainty or bbc have other info that doesn't agree why what we are seeing..

    Don't normally post in mods but am confused by the Ramping & what's being forcast..

    This morning, it said 13°C with sunny spells for my location at that time. A few people have mentioned it to me and looking forward to an early start to Spring. They may be in for a bit of a shock though lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    10 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    A cold run fir the UK this morning. Anyone who moans about this evolution needs to change their expectations. Looking snowy too.

    gfseu-1-228 (1).png

    Cold? Phenomenally cold for the UK and a huge rarity those sort of synoptics occur a handful of times over 50-100 years. How can you not see something's afoot going on here? 

    IMG_1761.PNGIMG_1760.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    So how did the historical events happen then? Surely the same reasoning should apply then as it does now.

    Shortwaves can be our friend, Feb 2005 dropped a foot of snow in oldham from a developing system from the east

    Check out how those low uppers got here -  how they arrived at the North Sea, what were the SST's at that time,what were the uppers when they got here 

    beware if the modelling begins to hone in on a solution like ecm op whereby a vortex segment heads west and towards us.

    gfs op will not pick up a spoiler shortwave, neither will gem and ecm will probably take until T144 

    Would be an interesting experiment to see if gfsp performed better on it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    And, we end the run with a Greenland High!:girl_devil:

     

    EDIT...hehe, going mad model overload, changed it, indeed Greenland high.

    gfs-0-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    And, we end the run with a Scandi High!:girl_devil:

    gfs-0-384.png

    Think you mean Greenland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, snowray said:

    And, we end the run with a Scandi High!:girl_devil:

    gfs-0-384.png

    Greeny you mean?  Can't complain.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Check out how those low uppers got here -  how they arrived at the North Sea, what were the SST's at that time,what were the uppers when they got here 

    beware if the modelling begins to hone in on a solution like ecm op whereby a vortex segment heads west and towards us.

    gfs op will not pick up a spoiler shortwave, neither will gem and ecm will probably take until T144 

    Would be an interesting experiment to see if gfsp performed better on it. 

    Thats a bit of a cop out..... Clearly i don't know the SST's of any given date, thou i am sure a little bit of research will be able to find this information.

    Your original statement stated that it can't happen as Shortwaves will appear. 

    gfs-5-216.png?6

    Shows the jet pushing east, any shortwave that may develop will get pushed with it

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
    18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Just a note to some of you chasing the deepest cold pool - if you want a -11/-15 chunk of uppers to get here then you don't want to see a segment of vortex around -16/-20c hurtling west towards the North Sea - it won't get here as a shortwave will develop ahead of it as it reaches the sea and it will deflect north west 

    to advert that pool which would bring decent snowfall (-10/-15c) you need a cold pool to bleed off that really cold segment and advert west preferably across the land mass rather than the baltic and North Sea  as that will also moderate those uppers.

    it really is a tightrope walk to get that cold enough cold pool this far 

    to avoid confusion re cold pools - whilst we are also thinking about uppers, best to view them on the heights charts as those cut off blue/purple areas rotating clockwise around the blocking. 

    the ecm op run this morning a great example of how the cold pool can't get west beyond Norway as it hits the North Sea and the 06z gfs a great example of the safest way to get the cold pool this far as it heads west across Germany and the Low Countries with a short sea track to get here 

     

    Yes agree completely - Feb 1991 came through Ukraine and then across the continent. Maybe Jan 87 would be an exception as it looks like it came across the Baltic/N Sea more - but I just think we got amazingly lucky there with the trigger low interacting at the exact time frame to send it our way; any slight deviation and the cold would probably never have arrived in the UK on the scale that it did.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    So cross model agreement for a roaring Beasterly back end of next week. What could possibly go wrong!

    Lots actually but let's enjoy the moment...if it's good enough for TEITS it's good enough for me. Now where's that runner polish....

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    Posted
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    A highly encouraging morning to continue the progress of yesterday evening

    Remember the checklist timetable:

    The amplification heading downstream into the Atlantic draws the Azores High westwards and squeezes out the energy bleeding from the Canadian lobe of the vortex in the 7 to 10 day timeframe. It is thereafter where cold air advection is most likely to occur.

    The NH charts in the model suites continue highly consistent with this process- mean charts at that distance are going to blur the signal out.

    However, even in the period before this, the modelling of the heights to the NE and associated cold pooling is going to be problematic to model - especially with the spawned low pressure systems heading on a southerly track and hitting a veritable brick wall.

    This process gets more and more prone to error and miscalculations the closer the time period gets to where the Azores High retrogresses and is consequently less and less able to positively tilt the energy NE'wards. On that basis any ensemble suite clustering taken in isolation at face value today is simply a snapshot in time, and really needs to be assessed based set against the likely upstream evolution. The timetable itself - and when and where amplification is most likely to occur.

    As long as the amplification signal remains, (and it needs to be watched to ensure it does), then the cold air advection and adjustments west of the pattern will grow in the ensemble suites

    We cannot guarantee the prize to pinpoint the UK, but the larger pattern has all the ingredients in place to make it happen - and after all it has been possible already to identify the possibility a prize coming over the horizon by looking at the GSDM weighted against on-going stratospheric destabilisation at an apparently most unlikely time when the models were churning out seemingly endless cyclogenesis horror only last weekend

    Aside from the usual obvious caveats and guarantee disclaimers, there are more reasons to support cold evolutions than to dismiss them.  There are only a few weeks of official winter left, so worth coming off any fence while there is nothing to lose and plenty possible to gain :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Certainly exciting times, though with the caution still being exerted. If the charts being churned out the last couple of days verify, we could be talking about 2017 in the same conversations as memorable spells of yesteryear. Alternatively, the mild outcome could win, and this will become a distant memory as the winter that promised so much, but delivered so little. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

    Look at the trends we've been seeing - low pressures not as quite as deep and swinging up towards Greenland. It was only a couple of days ago that we were looking at storm after storm slamming across us.

    I can only see the trend continuing. Watch that 955 low at 180h filling more and more over the next few runs and the block to the east strengthening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Check out how those low uppers got here -  how they arrived at the North Sea, what were the SST's at that time,what were the uppers when they got here 

    beware if the modelling begins to hone in on a solution like ecm op whereby a vortex segment heads west and towards us.

    gfs op will not pick up a spoiler shortwave, neither will gem and ecm will probably take until T144 

    Would be an interesting experiment to see if gfsp performed better on it. 

    I much prefer to pick out the positives from this mornings runs,without getting too carried away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Only 4/5 ens with decent support of the Op at day 8.  Why are the Ops run after run churning better outputs for cold than the ENS I wonder.

    Edit - What is notable is that 17 out of 20 have a continental flow at T240 , although only 4/5 have us in the freezer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset

    Just thought I would post this chart because it definitely is eye candy!

    P.S I KNOW ITS BASED ON LOWER RESOLUTION CHARTS

     

    Snow risk.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    There's celebrations in here like its a D2 chart. It's D8-10. Yes the charts look great, it's exciting and trending well for cold lovers, especially after the last few weeks, but some caution at this timeframe surely?

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