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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Crazy NH at day 10....imagine working that one out as a weather forecast.

IMG_4124.PNG

You're not wrong Ali, pick the bones out of that chart!  Amazing looking chart, I'm sure it won't come to fruition but interesting to see how it develops in FI nevertheless.

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4 minutes ago, joggs said:

Trough out west not sharp enough to undercut hence no connection to the east low heights and Italy etc get buried. .....again lol.

Yup, even at D10, its all over bar the shouting on this run. 

 

Great run.....for Italy and Greece again, not us.

Just as well its just the pub run.

gfseu-1-252.png

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20 minutes ago, Nick F said:

This time round the atmospheric  drivers for change are a lot more favourable, namely  the MJO coherently moving into colder phase 7/8, the best MJO propagation we've seen this winter, with enough amplification to induce HLBs rather than MLBs. The MJO forcing concurrent with planetary wave number 2 over Scandi/Svalbard propagating up from the trop will mean the stratosphere PV will be in an increasingly weakened state as we head through early Feb too. Could go wrong if the HLB doesn't position right, but more background support this time.

Yes, and you can see that very consistently in the modelled position of the Scandi-H: it systematically tends to be placed much higher, even elongated. Wether that is good or not remains to be seen but it is a big difference with the december situation! Back then it was always the question: will it be MLB or HLB.

Edited by skatefan
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2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

You're not wrong Ali, pick the bones out of that chart!  Amazing looking chart, I'm sure it won't come to fruition but interesting to see how it develops in FI nevertheless.

It may look pretty, but the cold air just skirts past us. Highlights how we can have great synoptics and still miss out. Still lots of potential of course and just one run bla bla...

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1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Alright, own up... who ran over the black cat :)

That's an absolute classic in bad luck. Even the northerly drops to our east,

 

I just cant believe it!:shok: 

gfseu-2-372.png

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its safe to say post about 216 the 18z is for the bin

in the history of charts & achives there has never been something like this mess-

IMG_2229.PNG

 

The 18z is great up to about 174 - then misses any potential undercutting- not an issue for now- whats more important is alligning the cold towards the UK then worry about the trigger low -

At least it will be cold with -8 dewpoints :)

-15 just over the river - that apparently can never happen :)

IMG_2230.PNG

S

FI is FI but GFS ensembles have started to show a willingness for a retrograde pattern and so this Op run is in keeping with that.

We have seen this before though, where an Easterly doesn't quite get there and is slowly dropped in favour of an Atlantic block later which itself slowly becomes flatter with shortwave energy leaking past Southern Greenland so we ultimately end up with a fairly standard toppler.

Hopefully this will be different as background signals seem more conducive to producing a higher lat and more stable block.

If not then at least a retrograde pattern will offer a second chance from the N/NE should it come to fruition.

Best case scenario we get both. :D

Edited by Mucka
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An absolute hoot of an FI.  Everything except the kitchen sink thrown at Europe and the UK manages to miss the lot.  That can't be repeated again, surely??? How's this for a NH profile at 384 (yes of course it won't come to fruition, just for fun!)

 

gfsnh-0-384.png

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Evening All.

Before we worry about the prospect of colder weather we still have no agreement on the Low pressure track for Friday!

UW72-21.GIF?31-18

gfs-0-72.png?18

ECM1-72.GIF?31-0

Met office are clearly backing there own model on the outcome as it stands, it will be interesting to see what the actual outcome is by Friday. 

 

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6 minutes ago, snowray said:

I just cant believe it!:shok: 

gfseu-2-372.png

We could all club together and hire a boat for a North Sea cruise 'Winter Spectacular?!'

Seriously though it is just a variation on a theme.  

Unless it becomes a trend throughout tomorrow I wouldn't get hung up on the specifics for the UK in terms of the cold missing us to the East.  It could be a mild outlier anyway?

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Just a thought but with the battle ground scenario at T+162hrs and beyond wouldn't there be some kind of snow events as the milder air battles with the colder Easterly air . Or am I barking up the wrong tree. 

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Looking at the 18z as it came out, I'd questioned its development by t138. In trying to wind up a low that was below 935mb it pushes things further east than likely. We know it has that particular issue so you need to adjust it to something that experience tells us will be less deep.

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The low on Friday is certainly keeping everyone on their toes. The BBC forecast at 10.30 by Darren (I love mild) Bett said the low is more likely to go NE with the SE track least likely. The latest Fax chart disagrees with Darren as the low tracks E.

fax96s.gif?3

A great day for those hoping the Siberian Express will arrive. Lets hope it isn't like our UK train operators and fails to turn up!

 

Edited by TEITS
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Im personally hoping we see a correction W from the output. My view is the longer we wait for an eventual undercut and following E,ly, the more that can go wrong.

Key points for me is the low pressure systems from +72 going NE/E/SE? Will the incredibly deep low you see at +144 in the Atlantic be that deep (935mb)?

So I shall be looking to see a quicker undercutting, a correction W of the Atlantic low and the block to our NE.

 

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