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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)

    Let's enjoy the upcoming cold spell perhaps less cold next week but models will change a lot by then , also with that block in place I wouldn't be surprised we have a cold reload from the NE , winter is not over yet, also some cold nights if skies remain clear next week bringing surface temperatures down 

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well as the saying goes you can't make a silk purse out of a pigs ear. The gfs and ecm are truly abysmal this morning. Maybe a snow event at weekend and that's about it. Gfs brings southerly airstream into next week and the ecm goes all flat and zonal into fi

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Retrogressive signal gone awol for the time being  in the  extended modelling. 

    anyone hoping for winters last hurrah later in Feb needs to hang their hat on the telecoms delivering

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    18 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

    Schafernaker seems to agree with you Johnp...He's tweeted "One last cold snap then spring"  Oh to have our hands on GLOSEA5 eh???

    He doesn't say one last cold snap. That would be a foolish thing to say at this stage.

     

     

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    9 minutes ago, supernova said:

    A good example of why SM is considered something of a legend on here (amongst others). Wonder if he's got one of those green crystal ball things like on Lord Of The Rings. Dude's a weather wizard if that verifies.

    Hmm personally I'm not buying it. Will be very impressed with that forecast of a cold spell starting end of nxt week if it happens though...time will tell i suppose.

    Our northern blocking is gone completely from the models this morning. IMO we will have to wait longer for the trop response to any SSW and MJO phase 8 - meaning blocking will not return for another couple of weeks, perhaps early march before we see the effects on our weather. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    Concentrating on the more reliable time frame and Comparing the big two at 144hr, there are some differences.. UKMO has more amplification around Greenland/Hudson bay and less shortwaves in the North Atlantic.. It also has a more robust high around Scandinavia.

    ECH1-144.gif.thumb.png.948c1b55c2d15f5da14ae4136b69afe6.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.4be282dcbd4c25923d19045e8edbc9a7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Not often you see a set of ensembles this consistently mild in winter, very surprising turn of events. Seems like we just can't catch a break, let's enjoy the next few days and hope for a miracle!

     

     

    IMG_7567.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    It's amazing how when a milder option is shown the GFS can cluster all bar one ensemble member to that outcome, even at a week away! Give it a cold solution to handle, and it's all over the place after 2-3 days! :D

    I'm by no means an expert on models at all, so could someone help me on this AO question!

    ao.sprd2.gif

    By the 15th, the AO is forecast to be around -4/-5.....now I thought this would indicate massive +ve pressure differences over the North Pole?

    ECH1-168.GIF?08-12

    That doesn't look like a -5 AO chart to me. Where am I going wrong??

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  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Conclusion from the comments of some:
     

    • 'Blink and you'll miss it' cold snap - Suggests no longer than 2 or 3 days.
    • Snow only to hills
    • Spring warmth within days

    What the models actually show:
     

    • 5 day cold spell, with frost, ice, cold easterly winds and snow opportunities for most
    • Turning less cold next week and possibly milder later next week, but anything that far ahead is always uncertain

     

    Rather confusing!

    Definitely confusing. It would be great if someone could invent a computer program that simply looks at model output and gives a completely unbiased, unemotional and clinical view of the output, having just one neutral source would be a useful comparison. With the way AI is progressing that may not be too far off! Trying to be as clinical as possible, the current output shows the Scandi high sinking into a Euro high next week. But will it verify? The repeating pattern this last six weeks has been to underestimate the strength of highs and overestimate any increase in warmth over Europe, more pronounced the further east you go. This may be less marked as seasonal factors come into play, however I do not think the end result will be as simple as shown. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    A picture tells a story. All of Europe going mild, if the GEFS are to be believed. 

    gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (9).png

     

    I'm watching the T144 period at the moment, as the ensembles differ notably in specifics, even if not overall shape, then and I'm curious to see what the longer term message is once they have cleared it up.

     

    Edited by jvenge
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Conclusion from the comments of some:
     

    • 'Blink and you'll miss it' cold snap - Suggests no longer than 2 or 3 days.
    • Snow only to hills
    • Spring warmth within days

    What the models actually show:
     

    • 5 day cold spell, with frost, ice, cold easterly winds and snow opportunities for most
    • Turning less cold next week and possibly milder later next week, but anything that far ahead is always uncertain

     

    Rather confusing!

    Realistically though nobody wants frost & ice though.. the majority on this forum want lying snow or prolonged cold spell, what's coming up is just a bog standard winter colder spell, for most it will deliver nothing.

    Then we had retrogression signal which has now completely gone awry and usually when the models show such mild unanimous agreement long term they are usually correct, it's sods law.

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    A picture tells a story. All of Europe going mild, if the GEFS are to be believed. 

    gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (9).png

    Yep thats the big thaw going by them charts for europe not so much for uk as there is nothing to thaw.:rofl:

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    26 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    He doesn't say one last cold snap. That would be a foolish thing to say at this stage.

     

     

    Well he doesn't say two,or three more bud...so one last cold spell then spring. Let this winter go it's time to move on,next winter will arrive soon enough,models firming up on a mild turn now after our weekend of flurries.

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  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Some posts have been hidden, Please stick to 'Model Output Discussion' in here.

    Thanks.

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It's amazing how when a milder option is shown the GFS can cluster all bar one ensemble member to that outcome, even at a week away! Give it a cold solution to handle, and it's all over the place after 2-3 days! :D

    I'm by no means an expert on models at all, so could someone help me on this AO question!

    ao.sprd2.gif

    By the 15th, the AO is forecast to be around -4/-5.....now I thought this would indicate massive +ve pressure differences over the North Pole?

    ECH1-168.GIF?08-12

    That doesn't look like a -5 AO chart to me. Where am I going wrong??

    Good question. The models seem to be sticking two fingers up at the mjo signal. However,  some seem to have forgotten the ecm op of last night. I feel like it could be one of those episodes whereby the morning runs throw out a mild looking suite only for the evening runs to show someone far more favourable This happens quite a lot. 

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  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    Realistically though nobody wants frost & ice though.. the majority on this forum want lying snow or prolonged cold spell, what's coming up is just a big standard winter colder spell, for most it will deliver nothing.

    Then we had retrogression signal which has now completely gone awry and usually when the models show such mild unanimous agreement long term they are usually correct, it's sods law.

    They are only usually right because the UK climate is usually mild, it is like a bet on a form horse. @mb018538 I'm confused too, the classical definition of a pronounced negative AO is "high pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes." I don't see any high pressure in the polar region.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

    A picture tells a story. All of Europe going mild, if the GEFS are to be believed. 

    gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (9).png

     

    I'm watching the T144 period at the moment, as the ensembles differ notably in specifics, even if not overall shape, then and I'm curious to see what the longer term message is once they have cleared it up.

     

    This is what CFS was going for in February to much derision!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It's amazing how when a milder option is shown the GFS can cluster all bar one ensemble member to that outcome, even at a week away! Give it a cold solution to handle, and it's all over the place after 2-3 days! :D

    I'm by no means an expert on models at all, so could someone help me on this AO question!

    ao.sprd2.gif

    By the 15th, the AO is forecast to be around -4/-5.....now I thought this would indicate massive +ve pressure differences over the North Pole?

    ECH1-168.GIF?08-12

    That doesn't look like a -5 AO chart to me. Where am I going wrong??

    The graph is ex ncep, the chart is ecm op 

    the GEFS were pretty neg yesterday - they are neutral this morning by day 10

    ao /nao are done from ensembles, not ops

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    The graph is ex ncep, the chart is ecm op 

    the GEFS were pretty neg yesterday - they are neutral this morning by day 10

    ao /nao are done from ensembles, not ops

     

    some isnt right in the charts....... i dont know at the moment where is the wrong output

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Remember a couple of weeks ago when all the models (apart from ukmo as it did not go out that far) were persistently showing long draw south westerlies at day 7 onwards? I need say no more. 

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  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    Remember a couple of weeks ago when all the models (apart from ukmo as it did not go out that far) were persistently showing long draw south westerlies at day 7 onwards? I need say no more. 

    I do. The gfs also predicted a massive warm up for Europe not too long ago which never eventuated. I'll be keeping my powder dry past day 6.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The graph is ex ncep, the chart is ecm op 

    the GEFS were pretty neg yesterday - they are neutral this morning by day 10

    ao /nao are done from ensembles, not ops

     

    Thanks @bluearmy .....I was aware that the AO forecast is ensemble based, but with so much of it in heavy negative territory, it just didn't look quite right to me. Perhaps today and tomorrow we will see a form of correction upwards.

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