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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Well well well, what do we have here now..

    fax96s.gif

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    Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

    Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

    This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
    7 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Well well well, what do we have here now..

    fax96s.gif

    Looks like a trough moving in from the North Sea which you can see on the GFS precip charts. Looking at the available data  it seems that it may fall as rain/sleet to coast and lower levels but inland and certainly with elevation there may be some decent snowfall. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Seems to stay mainly as rain/sleet in the east after all, latest Euro 4 has surprised me, thought it would have been all snow by this Thursday, look at them uppers.

     

    17020918_0718.gif

    17020918_0718-1.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Even the North Sea is normally full of snow when uppers are at or above -10c and DP below 0, I mean that warm front is not due until Saturday. 

    All very strange indeed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    22 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    If we end up with rain or just sleet on the east coast , this will go down as such a let down and an over hyped dreadful easterly. I hope this is not the case , but what a change from the two weeks severe cold that i and others thought was coming. 

     

    But lets hoep late Feb is better before we run out of time for winter 

    If you don't mind me saying I don't recall a single model run that indicated severe cold. Throughout the modelling the lowest upper temps have always been around -10 to -11C. Only a few rogue runs like the GEM projected anything lower. For a severe cold spell in Feb from the E then you are looking at upper temps at -15C or below.

    This is a severe cold, snowy E,ly. For my location this was better than Jan 87 for snowfall amounts!

    Rrea00119790215.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    I'm staying optimistic past T+144 hrs in all my 30 plus years of study Easterly winds have been a nightmare to forecast once there upon us imo.

    I'd say sit back and wait a few days as we enter the middle of the polar continental air and see where we are on Sundays 12z up to T+120hrs if we see a trend to milder southerly air flow so be it. That's the way it goes but I aren't  convinced that this is just a 5 day cold snap... but I'm open to be wrong and constructive feedback. 

    Edited by sorepaw1
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    11 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    If you don't mind me saying I don't recall a single model run that indicated severe cold. Throughout the modelling the lowest upper temps have always been around -10 to -11C. Only a few rogue runs like the GEM projected anything lower. For a severe cold spell in Feb from the E then you are looking at upper temps at -15C or below.

    This is a severe cold, snowy E,ly. For my location this was better than Jan 87 for snowfall amounts!

    Rrea00119790215.gif

     

    Perfect wedge of heights, perfect trough distribution across mainland Europe- its spatial distribution meaning no warm air intrusion from further SE, LP at eastern side helping to spin cold air round the block like a conveyor...yep, don't make 'em like that anymore!

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Dew points are higher on Saturday because of precipitation. Think back to Feb 05 and 06 and 09 when the fronts came from the east (clearly this is less organised) and we'll probably see similar. The east and south east struggled while inland we were fine. 

    It did snow and settle up at 185m on those occasions, but I recall that low lying areas struggled generally.  I was in central Leeds in the February 2006 event and although it was preceded and followed by snow showers, the frontal system fell as rain. Particularly in the February 2009 case, though, many inland areas already had a significant snow cover from preceding snow showers and the frontal belt of sleet or wet snow didn't make much of a dent on the snow cover.  Also, in those cases dew points were generally between 0 and 1C, rather than 2C as is currently forecast for many areas for Saturday afternoon.

    In my experience a good rule of thumb (with certain exceptions, e.g. bright showery days in spring with a shallow warm layer near the surface) is that for snow, the wet bulb temperature (or the average of the dry bulb and dew point, which is a close approximation) needs to be less than a degree above zero.  Many of the classic "heavy wet sticky snow with big snowflakes" type events have seen dew points just above freezing, but I can't recall any with dew points between 1 and 2C.

    That said, I think many eastern areas could well see a covering to low levels on Friday and also early on Saturday, and Saturday could well see a spell of snow for many areas on the western flank of the frontal systems.  The weak nature of the systems won't help matters though; often in these marginal setups heavy precipitation makes the difference between rain/sleet and snow due to evaporative cooling.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Saturday evening looking very good or much of the country! 

    image.png

    Watching this space very carefully. Height rises are looking much better over Iceland and towards Greenland on this 00z run. Looks to be better retrogression. 

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Well, cross model agreement on it Turning much milder next week, what an awful winter it has been for the Met. 

    Anyway, in the short term, some good news, a 4-5 day cold spell. Some snow around, areas prone, Eastern Scotland and North East England, although many places could see something come Saturday and Sunday.  Some moderation from the north sea may spoil the party nearer to the coast.

    Enjoy the cold :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    Mild spell still 7-8 days away. I need not tell most people here what can happen at that range.

    However, the mean temperature from the GEFS is creeping up each run and into FI it is now an early taste of Spring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 hour ago, jvenge said:

    Mild spell still 7-8 days away. I need not tell most people here what can happen at that range.

    However, the mean temperature from the GEFS is creeping up each run and into FI it is now an early taste of Spring.


    gefsens850London0.png

    With 19/20 members going mild, I think we can say with some confidence that it's going to happen now. For some reason people keep slagging off the ECM run, but it was clearly first in picking this new trend out a few days back! The colder FI runs of a couple of days ago have all but disappeared from the ensembles too. By the time that rolls around we will be rapidly approaching March, and time will be really running out. Yes, I know we can still get cold and snow in March, but it needs to pack a lot more of a punch to have an effect. 

    Edited by Paul
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    Posted
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
    35 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Well, cross model agreement on it Turning much milder next week, what an awful winter it has been for the Met. 

    Anyway, in the short term, some good news, a 4-5 day cold spell. Some snow around, areas prone, Eastern Scotland and North East England, although many places could see something come Saturday and Sunday.  Some moderation from the north sea may spoil the party nearer to the coast.

    Enjoy the cold :D

    Sorry why on earth are you having a go at the met????? Not one single experienced poster has had anything bad to say about the met they have nailed it more times than the gfs and ecm. They have called it correct more times than not.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Well the GFS and GEFS are shocking for coldies beyond the weekend, I can't even pick a positive point out!!

    ECM running, is it time for this model to show some better looking coldie charts I wonder!!! Tick tock tick tock as winter goes by!!

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    Conditions look better for snowfall more widely on Saturday and not just high ground on this mornings GFS.

    The possible event is still 90 hrs away so I'm sure there's more twists and turns to come.

    Here's a few charts from the 00z

    90-779UK.GIF?08-090-101UK.GIF?08-090-526UK.GIF?08-090-7UK.GIF?08-0

    According to the GFS at the time of the precip arrving on Sat IMBY there will be uppers 850s of -7c, dew point at 0c and 0c isotherm between 300-400m.

    That would suggest a good chance of snow falling. Car at the ready in case it ends up being a 400m+ event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM joins GFS in bringing the warmer temps by the middle of next week:

    ECM1-192.GIF?08-12ECM0-192.GIF?08-12

    850s over 5c....should feel very nice if it verifies 8)

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
    Just now, mb018538 said:

    ECM joins GFS in bringing the warmer temps by the middle of next week:

    ECM1-192.GIF?08-12ECM0-192.GIF?08-12

    850s over 5c....should feel very nice if it verifies 8)

    Indeed! What is it with this bloody Euro high this winter?

    A look at the NH view at day 8 shows ECM trying its hardest for high pressure towards Iceland/Greenland but the Euro high is laughing at it saying "you call that a high mate?".

    ECH1-192.GIF?08-12

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    I'm not trying to speak against the facts about what the models are showing. However, I wouldn't be surprised with a different scenario showing its hands after the weekend. Still plenty of time for corrections and alterations that could easily place us in the firing line for a reload. One very tiny difference could occur within the orientation of these southerly winds. If we end up with a less intense low towards Iberia and it doesn't sink adjacent to Morocco, then there's no route for the African heights and winds to be scooped up. Not only that, the high pressure could well end up orientated differently and allow a less SEly component and more cold flooding into the Balkans. That would then leave us God knows where. 

    A very interesting model watching period coming up I feel. 

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM ends flat and mild. Trend or outlier, that is the question. Either way, doesn't look too sharp this morning.

    It appears that Thu/Fri/Sat/Sun are the 4 days that this cold snap will encompass, before things start changing over Monday into Tuesday. Whether it ends up just remaining chilly from a continental feeds, or warmer with a plume of air from North Africa, will be the devil in the detail over the coming days.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    There's no dressing it up I'm afraid this morning - absolutely dire models this morning if it's cold you're after (post the weekend).

     

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    There's no dressing it up I'm afraid this morning - absolutely dire models this morning if it's cold you're after (post the weekend).

     

    There's the GFS, there's the ECM, there's the UKMO, GEM, JMA.. And then there's the weather. Let's see how the next 72 hours roll out and let's watch carefully how our heights to the NW behave, seen as they are progged to do a loop the loop around the UK, we'll see about that. 

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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