Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[damianslaw]

Emergent theme from today's models is a stalling atlantic picture, heights building over NW Russia, fronts not making any inroads into scandi, inbetween we have alot of warm air advection, ripe evolution to trough disruption, indeed both ECM and GFS showing secondary low developments splintering off from the longwave trough, and simply coming unstuck in situ. 

Fully expecting the models to show trough disruption occuring in the reliable timeframe over the next few days, and heights ready to attack from the NE.

[Methuselah]

Well, after 14 years' model-watching, I think It's about time I asked this question: How can a computer model be 'bullish' about a solution? When its prediction fails to materialise, as is often the case, does said model suddenly become 'sheepish'?

[Allseasons-Si]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All

nice negative tilt on the WAA heading up through Scandi on the ECM @120 !

The gfs 18z following the ecm!!!,trough disruption further SE than on the 12z gfs

while we have height's to the NE like that,expect furture runs to sheer away at that pv segment and disrupt it further SE.

Edited January 29, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[kumquat]

One heck of a block looking to dominate to the East. The outcome for us could be anything. Wet, windy and mild. Cold, dry. Snowy. Who knows?

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, kumquat said:

One heck of a block looking to dominate to the East. The outcome for us could be anything. Wet, windy and mild. Cold, dry. Snowy. Who knows?

I think we all know what the outcome will be but it's fun dreaming whilst we chase it on the models ! 

[kumquat]

18z takes WAA cross-polar flow. Less Scandi blocking and more Svalbard High. Could be some fun and games. We are all dreaming, after all.

 

Edited January 29, 2017 by kumquat

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think we all know what the outcome will be but it's fun dreaming whilst we chase it on the models ! 

I must admit, the Arctic high is the biggest tease of all time for the UK. Teetering towards us but never quite makes it. Well, hardly ever in the last 25 years anyway.

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think we all know what the outcome will be but it's fun dreaming whilst we chase it on the models ! 

Do we!!!

i am not having a dig at you blue cos you know your stuff and you are far more knowledgable than me but what timeframe are you looking at,yes next week looks unsettled but from there i don't have a crystal ball.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Do we!!!

i am not having a dig at you blue cos you know your stuff and you are far more knowledgable than me but what timeframe are you looking at,yes next week looks unsettled but from there i don't have a crystal ball.

It was a fairly sarcastic post on my part.  the question as to whether it's wet or white post mid Feb  for the uk. 

Of course i dont know the answer and neither does anyone else 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It was a fairly sarcastic post on my part.  the question as to whether it's wet or white post mid Feb  for the uk. 

Of course i dont know the answer and neither does anyone else 

No worries

let's hope it's the latter

it's been a long haul so far this winter and feb can deliver or even march!

this high pressure to the east is a stubborn SOAB,either freind of foe,time will tell.

[kumquat]

Interesting that the models think it's all East to West around Valentine's Day. I love you all.

Edited January 29, 2017 by kumquat

[TEITS]

Great to see the trend continue despite the UK missing out at the moment.

When the models indicate such a scenario I often start daydreaming of a repeat of Jan 87.  The descending high from the Arctic with the associated bitterly cold airmass pushing S is a rare sight and even rarer to hit the UK. For the UK, especially the SE, to experience upper temps between -15 & -20C then this is the only synoptic pattern that will bring these kinds of temps.

For the younger members. When you see old video weather forecasts on youtube i.e Jan 87 with max temps of -8C during the day, then this is the kind of set up you need.

Finally being looking at some GFS N Hemisphere charts for the past few days and comparing with todays outputs. I am somewhat encouraged that we may see tomorrows outputs suggesting that cold pool may get closer!

[Timmytour]

31 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Great to see the trend continue despite the UK missing out at the moment.

When the models indicate such a scenario I often start daydreaming of a repeat of Jan 87.  The descending high from the Arctic with the associated bitterly cold airmass pushing S is a rare sight and even rarer to hit the UK. For the UK, especially the SE, to experience upper temps between -15 & -20C then this is the only synoptic pattern that will bring these kinds of temps.

For the younger members. When you see old video weather forecasts on youtube i.e Jan 87 with max temps of -8C during the day, then this is the kind of set up you need.

Finally being looking at some GFS N Hemisphere charts for the past few days and comparing with todays outputs. I am somewhat encouraged that we may see tomorrows outputs suggesting that cold pool may get closer!

That would be nice to see again
 

I remember colleague living south of the Thames could not get into work  for over a week! Daytime windchill temps feeling like -14c!

Though,as you allude to, even if we do get an arctic high dropping south giving us the possibility, the positioning of it would have to be pretty precise for the UK to give us a repeat. So that's two longshots coming in together. Not impossible but pretty unlikely,

[Seasonality]

Interesting charts now entering the mid term range. 

[Dennis]

A strong warming is on progress now in the strato ; some exiting times are ahead possible

 

Edited January 30, 2017 by Dennis

[That ECM]

The backend of the week is causing the meto a few headaches and if you look at the t144 from the big 3 it's not hard to see why. Gfs not really interested, ecm more so and ukmo full on. Interesting to watch this unfold.

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm

azores heights at last retreating.

and consistent from last night

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

8 hours ago, kumquat said:

One heck of a block looking to dominate to the East. The outcome for us could be anything. Wet, windy and mild. Cold, dry. Snowy. Who knows?

looks cold, dry and snowy according to this  http://www.northmeteo.gr/blog/estimated-circulation-in-europe-1-1022017/

 

[Gowon]

Comparing ECM and UKMO at 144hr, UKMO looks more likely to split the vortex.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

i remember 09/10 winter well azores that year was our friend looks like it could be again as the surge from the azores helps build heights into scandi area.

problem is we need the lows to dive southeast with jet running south into europe.

although im not bothered as this is a evolving situation.

a split vortex does look mighty close to happening.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

12 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Comparing ECM and UKMO at 144hr, UKMO looks more likely to split the vortex.

 

ukmo looks like the low is further south than the ecm if we could get 500 miles or more south southeast we could start to see something very interesting although extremely wet and windy possibly storm force winds.

[Gowon]

ECM ends with a massive block to our east.. The uppers not very cold but because we drag air from the continent it'll probably be freezing again on the ground. 

 

[Matthew.]

The most unsettled period of the winter this week according to the ECM. Then it could follow with the snowiest week of the winter maybe

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

ukmo looks like the low is further south than the ecm if we could get 500 miles or more south southeast we could start to see something very interesting although extremely wet and windy possibly storm force winds.

Yeah the UKMO is a lot stormier and further south as you say.. I think that might run se under the block?

[Nick F]

Interesting how the surface lows coming off the Atlantic across NW Europe never really get far past the meridian and certainly not over past the North Sea throughout the GFS run and also EC, instead they dumb-bell round the upper trough to the west because of the block to the east. 

The mean trough to the west and NW retreats west by day 10 on both the 00z GFS and ECM high res which allows the block to the east extend a little further west and EC looks like it wants to undercut past day 10, GFS certainly does. 

Can see the effects of the wave 2 on the strat PV by day 11 on GEFS (charts courtesy of weatherbell)

though the strat PV does seem to bounce back to pole post day 10 after being displaced towards Scandi, but appears weaker 

Not only do we have the increase in wave 2 activity, we will also get some help from the MJO into 2nd week of Feb, as we see it forecasted to go through phase 7/8 - GEFS perhaps a little too quick.

So all-in-all, looking pretty encouraging for HLB to the NE and maybe eventually N as we head through to mid-February.