Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[snowray]

Even the very best of them have been wrong abbie, particularly this Winter. This thread is after all, in Winter months at least, the cold and snow freak par excellence thread, so the more snow you ramp, the more likes you will get even if you are wrong.

GEM is certainly pretty close to the chart I put up earlier, come on ECM you can do it!

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, snowray said:

Even the very best of them have been wrong abbie, particularly this Winter. This thread is after all, in Winter months at least, the cold and snow freak par excellence thread, so the more snow you ramp, the more likes you will get even if you are wrong.

GEM is certainly pretty close to the chart I put up earlier, come on ECM you can do it!

Was just looking at the GEFS, thinking the very same thing and then onto this thread for first time today and saw your post - and very encouraging to see it on the normally miserly GEM. The seeds are being sown for a cold spell in mid-February. By D7-D10, a lot of charts showing straight line southerlies into the polar area, and any polar vortex to the east being pushed further and further south over Russia. This brings potential for proper HLB to the NE - and the increased possibility of the Atlantic going under rather than over the block. Your chart a perfect example. Long way out but the watch is on.

Edit- read a bit further back and good to see Chino mentioning the same idea - good news!!

Edited January 29, 2017 by Man With Beard

[SMU]

Evening All

nice negative tilt on the WAA heading up through Scandi on the ECM @120 !

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All

nice negative tilt on the WAA heading up through Scandi on the ECM @120 !

Oh yes indeed steve and all models are playing with the Scandinavia ridge.

Things are moving in the right direction 

[tight isobar]

Scandi/Pacific ridge link..

Ecm going for split via raw suite...

Shortwaves also directing favorably. .aiding' both heights/split. ..

[Daniel*]

Severe gales for knocker country on T144 height rises to NE looking interesting.  

[Frank Trough]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Severe gales for knocker country on T144 height rises to NE looking interesting.  

Finally somebody has noticed the potential for a bit of storminess at the end of the week! Timing differences though and ukmo not that interested at all. The country could be forecast to be flattened at t+48 and not get a mention in winter!  Will my greenhouse survive long enough to enjoy any height rises?

it'll be a bit of a shock, last decent gale was ages ago. november?

[doctor32]

3 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Finally somebody has noticed the potential for a bit of storminess at the end of the week! Timing differences though and ukmo not that interested at all. The country could be forecast to be flattened at t+48 and not get a mention in winter!  Will my greenhouse survive long enough to enjoy any height rises?

it'll be a bit of a shock, last decent gale was ages ago. november?

 

2 hours ago, doctor32 said:

So some small but deep lows developing to the south of the main trough in the atlantic as we head into next weekend running across the uk which could bring some very unpleasant weather with warnings likely to be issued, wind a key feature of the weather with everything but the kitchen sink mixed in dependent on location.

Although everyones eyes is on the next cold spell, i believe people do see the potential for some stormy weather ahead (as i mentioned earlier) just in winter this is a snow lovers/rampers thread. 

[snowray]

22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Was just looking at the GEFS, thinking the very same thing and then onto this thread for first time today and saw your post - and very encouraging to see it on the normally miserly GEM. The seeds are being sown for a cold spell in mid-February. By D7-D10, a lot of charts showing straight line southerlies into the polar area, and any polar vortex to the east being pushed further and further south over Russia. This brings potential for proper HLB to the NE - and the increased possibility of the Atlantic going under rather than over the block. Your chart a perfect example. Long way out but the watch is on.

Edit- read a bit further back and good to see Chino mentioning the same idea - good news!!

ECM proving to be a harder nut to crack though MWB, we have some good potential there again though, more than we hand a couple of days back.

[Guest]

WINTER 2016/17 FULL REPORT No. 11 WITH JANUARY 29th INPUT

Please note I am still learning how to cut and paste various types of charts into my posts so please bear with me as I increasingly use these in future reports.

Review Of The Last Week – A Big Pattern Change:

After over three weeks with the European cold block holding back the Atlantic, we have finally seen it breakthrough.  Several days ago, we saw minimum temperatures as low as -8c in the south-east and many locations had an ice day on Thursday with maximum temperatures in several locations around -3c. At the same time, parts of northern Scotland registered around +12c. Yesterday and this morning we have seen a complete reversal, with a few parts of the south registering +12c while several locations in the Scottish Highlands recorded below -3c last night. The HP and surface cold was pushed eastwards and the transition is almost complete with the remaining cold air in the north exiting the UK during the next two days, although temperatures are not predicted to be as high as further south for a while yet. The UK as a whole is on course for a milder than average January and this will probably be reflected in the Central England Temperature set too. This masks the regional picture. While much of the north has seen some very mild conditions at times, the far south and south-east has been colder than average, especially for the last fortnight. Some areas have received their first significant rainfall since early January and almost all the country has been drier than average.

The Current and Short Term Position:

The high pressure is still hanging on across western Russia and eastern Europe and ridging towards central and southern Europe and much of central and eastern Europe is still under the cold block as can be seen below:

Current European Surface Pressure “Live”               European Surface Pressure at 1250                  Current European Surface Temperature “Live”           European Surface Temperatures at 1250

                                                                       

Just how far eastwards will the block be pushed?  Much will depend on the direction and the strength of the Jet Stream.  All through this winter I have noted the debate on the MOD regarding the pros and cons of a re-set vs fending off the Atlantic. A re-set would involve the block being completely broken with a period of more zonal conditions pushing right through Europe. This might allow occasional Polar Maritime and brief colder incursions in between milder and wetter periods. In due course, a colder pattern “might” develop but the risk is that we might face mild and stormy conditions for weeks on end (I am writing this from a “coldies” perspective and not yet taken account of the impacts from a possible SSW). On the other hand, retaining the block prevents any zonal spell from becoming established and might allow for a much colder evolution with a spell of easterlies and/or northerlies. The risk here being that any significant cold might come close but not move right over the UK, just as we have seen in recent weeks. It is highly unusual to have so much MLB and so little really cold weather. Now how about a third option – the score draw with the best of both worlds?  We can achieve a re-set with the block held further east. This will allow an Atlantic flow over north-west Europe and the UK. If the block (over eastern Europe and western Russia) continues to provide a significant cold pool, perhaps with a top-up from the north or east, it will still be close enough to tap into if the right synoptic pattern develops. Low pressure might develop over the Mediterranean and/or move just to the south of us. This might allow heights to build to our north-east and advect some really cold air into the UK. Alternatively, fronts might stall over us and a real “battleground” pattern develops - not with just surface cold but with much deeper cold mixing with the milder air to our west.

I believe that this “middle” scenario is quite possible. I’ll demonstrate it with one of my cross model analysis looking at D6 based on last night’s 0z or this morning’s 6z output – which was the most currently available at the time of writing this part of my report (around midday, Sunday) but when this goes live early this evening, most of the 12z output may well be slightly different. 

Northern Hemisphere Pressure for  Sat 4th Feb – 0100 (with adjusted times to provide an accurate comparison):

                     GFS 6z T+138                                                                 ECM 0z T+144                                                            UKMO   0z T+144                                                           GEM 0z T+144   

                                                                          

 

               NAVGEM 6z T+138                                                     JMA 12z Jan 28th T+156                                           GEFS ens mean 6z T+138                                 Met O Fax 06z T+120 for 1200 Thur Feb 2nd 

                                                                        

The recent output has fluctuated slightly during the last few runs (not unusual for D6 and beyond). The main differences are just how much HP is retained to the east. The ECM shows greater heights maintained to the east and on their 0z run this eventually evolves towards one of their now famous D10 easterlies! The GFS 0z showed far less HP to the east but the 6z did back track on this to some extent. The other models generally fall in between these two positions.

Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream for Sat 4th Feb – 0100 (with adjusted times to provide an accurate comparison):

         GFS 0z  Mon Jan 30th T+120                                        NAVGEM 6z T+138                                                        JMA 12z Jan 28th  T+156                                              GEFS ens mean 12z T+132  

                                                                         

The predicted path of the Jet Stream is very interesting. The most progressive, the GFS, shows one arm just about reaching the UK but diving south-east into Europe and across southern Europe with nothing pushing into central Europe. There is a much weaker and fragmented northern arm skirting north and around Scandinavia. The GEFS ensemble mean and the JMA are similar but with the main arm slightly further south while the NAVGEM shows it even further south. ECM do not produce a free-to-view chart but it would be interesting to see how they model the Jet Stream for the same period. I will not look at any detailed output for the far less reliable week 2 period but there is continuing divergence - one direction fires up the Jet more strongly and straight at us while another shows it continuing to split and avoid much of Europe. I would say that next weekend might be a crucial period in dictating just how dominant the Atlantic will be during the first half of February. UPDATE:  My charts for GFS and GEFS ens mean had updated to the 0z (Monday, Jan 30th) and 12z runs respectively (I must have made an error in saving the images) - so I changed them to the T+120 and T+132 for consistency. In just 12 (and 6) hours, they have both moved towards the earlier NAVGEM chart, with the Jet slightly further south.

Another useful indicator of the strength of the Jet Stream in the Atlantic is the thermal contrast between the eastern USA and the adjacent ocean.

Northern Hemisphere 2m Surface Temperatures for Sat 4th Feb – 0100:                                                      Northern Hemisphere 850s for Sat 4th Feb – 0100: 

           GEFS ens mean 6z T+138                                           NAVGEM 6z T+138                                                         GEFS ens mean 6z T+138                                          NAVGEM 6z T+138  

                                                                      

There is a moderate contrast with some colder air over the states but most of the coldest air is further north over eastern Canada and around Newfoundland. Again, the NAVGEM shows slightly less extensive cold, reducing the contrast. Unless the cold in the eastern USA becomes more severe and extensive, the thermal contrast is well below what it can be and might not play a significant role in assisting the strength of the Jet Stream. Other factors might be more dominant. Any changes in this contrast, the strength and direction of the Jet Stream and whether it continues to split and meander need to be monitored during this week as they could well be very influential on the week 2 pattern.

A Brief Look Further Ahead:

If we do see a stormy spell during week 2, as some of the recent output indicates, this does not necessarily mean mild. In fact I agree with @johnholmes in his post this morning that temperatures will be close to average in the south and it might be rather cold in the north. There will be short periods of mild and wet weather in the warm sectors followed by colder incursions during periods of Polar maritime air. This would give snow over high ground and especially where they need it in Scotland. If the Jet Stream continues to take a more southerly route, there could well be secondary depressions moving over southern England or even to the south of us at times with possibly some brief more widespread wintriness.

If something closer to the 0z ECM evolution verifies, then a full undercut is quite possible with the eastern European cold pool advected towards us. So,plenty of interest just in the next 10 days to 2 weeks. Let’s have a quick look at the full 2 weeks with the ensemble chart for London

London 2m Temperature Ensembles 0z January 29th to 13th February:

                        

This very useful ensemble chart highlights the current (Sunday 0z) differences in the model output. Both the NCEP and ECM start off on the mild side (after a slight frost tonight) but show temperatures closer to average later this week. Then from around next weekend the ECM shows colder nights than the NCEP. After a very mild day on D9, the ECM starts to trend below the mean on D10. The NCEP also shows a generally less mild (or colder) week 2 but it's still above the mean. The ensemble members, as they tend to in the less reliable period, really diversify with some showing generally colder conditions while others remain nearer to average or on the mild side. The next week will be a really fascinating one to watch for developments. 

Then we have the “possible” SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) and its impacts from mid-February onwards. I’ll leave that for others to focus on until there is greater certainty of the warmings and what might follow.

UPDATE: While I have spent much of today writing this report, I see that the 12z output is more encouraging with some movement towards the 0z ECM evolution. I also see that there have been some great posts this afternoon, including those from  @chionomaniac and @Tamara adding to the encouragement for an interesting February.  

Now on to my routine coverage.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis:

The last full monthly report was published on January 5th. This is a fascinating read and includes a review of the whole of 2016. Please note that the current ice extent map and the comparison chart to the mean are updated daily and are always of interest. Here’s the link for the latest updates:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

This chart shows the current extent of the sea ice (as on January 28th) in relation to 30 year means.

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

The “rate of recovery” during December was very close to a record and there has been a continued recovery (with several pauses) during January but, despite this, the overall ice extent is still at record lows and remains just below the previous low set during Winter 2012-13.

 

Arctic Oscillation (AO) 14 Day Ensemble Chart:

Here's the link to the daily charts:        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

...and here’s the current chart which updates automatically each afternoon:

Note for newbies: The AO index reflects the amount of HLB in the Arctic. A positive +AO reflects very little HLB and a strongly +AO reflects no HLB anywhere in the Arctic. A negative –AO reflects some HLB and a strongly –AO reflects substantial HLB with more intense high pressure and/or more extensive HLB in various parts of the Arctic. This index produced by NOAA is based upon GFS model output and will fluctuate in line with that. Although ECM produce similar data based upon their own output this is not one of their “free-to-view” charts for public consumption.

COMMENT (relating to the AO chart above when it was showing January 29th data - it updates automatically each afternoon):

The Arctic Oscillation is currently positive and then trends down closer to neutral by next weekend. Then week 2 is much more mixed with some ensemble members trending positive but rather more going negatively with several going strongly negative. So, uncertain but perhaps a sign of some HLB later next week.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 14 Day Ensemble Chart:

Here's the link to the daily charts:                   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml  (click on the small chart there)

...and here’s the current chart which updates automatically each afternoon:

Note for newbies: A neutral NAO index reflects the close to average state of the mean sea level pressure patterns or the “climatological” norm in the North Atlantic. This would equate to the anomalous high pressure in the south, particularly around the Azores and low pressure stretching from off the eastern USA seaboard in a wide band running north-eastwards to the east of Newfoundland, east of Greenland and through Iceland. A positive +NAO occurs when these patterns are stronger than usual (eg: the Azores high is more intense or more widespread and/or the Iceland low is deeper or more widespread than usual). A negative –NAO reflects a weak Azores high and/or less intense Icelandic low pressure. A strongly –NAO would reflect a reversal of the normal patterns with relatively low pressure in the Azores and high pressure further north towards Iceland. A “west based –NAO” (talked about recently) is when the pressure is higher than usual in the western Atlantic such as around the Newfoundland area). An “east based –NAO would indicate higher pressure than usual in our part of the Atlantic. This index produced by NOAA is based upon GFS model output and will fluctuate in line with that. Although ECM produce similar data based upon their own output this is not one of their “free-to-view” charts for public consumption.

COMMENT (relating to the NAO chart above when it was showing January 29th data - it updates automatically each afternoon):

The NAO is currently neutral but trending positive but never very strongly. Then most ensemble members trend less positive during week 2. This might suggest lower pressure in our vicinity but does not really show extensive deep LP over much of the Atlantic for week 2 (at this stage).

MJO Ensemble charts:

Here are today's MJO ensemble charts for the big 4 (all updated on January 29th) + Kyle MacRitchie’s modified chart (by request following recent discussions) with the live links below should you wish to check any future changes: 

               UKMO   (7 day forecast):                           ECM (14 day forecast):                     NCEP/GEFS (14 day forecast):                 JMA (9 day forecast):                         Kyle MacRitchie (30 day forecast):

                    

 

UKMO:     http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM:       http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

GEFS:        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

JMA:         http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/jman.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie     https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=140                   and his explanatory notes and further guidance:      https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=128

COMMENT (relating to charts on showing January 29th data - they update automatically each afternoon):  The big 4 and Kyle MacRitchie all show slightly more positive signs with the models showing week 2 movements towards the key stages through to phases 7 and 8 with the GEFS and Kyle (with one of his ensemble members) ending in phase 1 at good amplitude. This “may” assist with some HLB later in week 2. Over to our experts for a deeper analysis.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover:

I show animations for snow cover and sea ice changes. These are produced by the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  When you go to their site you can change the date range and go back over 10 years. You can change the speed and pause on any particular day. These are brilliant, very informative charts and great to play around with. I’ve have re-set the links below to show the last 2 weeks from January 14th  to January 28th but you can change these again on the site:

a) Animated Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Changes (updated by NOAA January 28th):

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20170114-20170128

....and here is their current chart:

 

b) Animated Europe and Asia Day Snow Cover (updated by NOAA January 28th):

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/ea/20170114-20170128

....and here is their current chart:

BRIEF COMMENT: 

Much of eastern and south-eastern European is still snow covered. There continues to be well above average snow cover over northern Asia and this has expanded even further southwards and south-westwards. Scandinavia is fully snow covered, except the south (the high central plateaus usually have pretty complete snow cover for most of an average winter). The extensive snow cover over North America which declined sharply during the recent much milder conditions, has slightly increased again.

Current Arctic Regional Surface Temperatures:

GFS – Northern Hemisphere Current Temperatures for January 29th 1900 (12z – 1300 T+6):

and here’s the link to live charts if you wish to view future changes (updated 4 times a day):

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=1&carte=1

Here is my selection of Arctic Regional Temperatures:

The the previous readings from my last full report are shown in brackets alongside

North Pole:  -20c to -28c  (around -28c).

Baring Sea/High Arctic:  -8c to -16c (-12c to -20c).

Scandinavia:  south mostly -4c (+4 to -12c);  north mostly -4c (-12c  to -16c).

Northern Siberia: -24c to -40c (little change).

North West Russia:  -12c to -24c (-8c to -20c)

North-east Europe:  -8c to -12c  (0c to -8c).

Greenland:  -20c to -40c (-20c to -36c)

Canadian Arctic:  -16c to -32c (-12c to -32c).

Alaska: -8c to -16c (-12c to -36c).

Please note:  For land masses I have tried to focus on readings away from the coasts and away from any mountainous areas.   You can follow the trends by looking at the latest data at any time from now on. It is vital to note the time of day to take account of daytime/night time variations. So for like for like comparisons, for example the 1900 charts for each day should be available to view from the 12z (T+6) updates which are published around 1600 to 1700 or about 4 to 5 hours later.

Svalbard Daily “Maximum” Temperature Forecast for 10 Days:

Here are the links to the 3 Svalbard stations that I am monitoring together with a summary of D1, D5 and D9 values:

Central/West Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

January 30th   -17c;        February 3rd  -6c;         February 7th  -2c.

North-West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-Ålesund/forecast.pdf

January 30th  -21c;        February 3rd  -6c;         February 7th  -3c.

Central South Svalbard – Sveagruva:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

January 30th  -22c;        February 3rd  -8c;         February 7th  -4c.

Please note that the links above will update automatically at frequent intervals throughout the day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at quite short range. 

BRIEF COMMENT:

Temperatures have been much lower during the last week (even below the 30 year means) but as we move into February they will rise closer to freezing for a few days (at least) with southerly winds encroaching. To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

This shows monthly means and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during this winter and goes back further. Svalbard has been seeing “maximum” temperatures often running at 8c to 10c above their long term average throughout most of 2016. This has been the pattern for several years and is reflective of the warming Arctic and record low sea ice cover.

Final Comment:

There is still plenty to interest us all as we move into the final third of winter

Next Update:

My next full weekly report should be on Sunday evening, February 5th.

 

Edited January 30, 2017 by Guest
Correcting typos and to ensure that all the links and charts work properly.

[chris55]

ECM 12z....Trends in the mid term good, eventual longer range outcome poor, we need to hope that this pattern will evolve over the coming days in the 6-8 day range.

168 ....promising

216....underwhelming, though the building blocks are there earlier on, we just need a more robust southerly element that can break through meaningfully into Europe.

 

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM 12z....Trends in the mid term good, eventual longer range outcome poor, we need to hope that this pattern will evolve over the coming days in the 6-8 day range.

168 ....promising

216....underwhelming, though the building blocks are there earlier on, we just need a more robust southerly element that can break through meaningfully into Europe.

 

Certainly nothing mild on the horizon judging by that 216 chart though.

[Dennis]

Stay tuned for later Febr

[Mark wheeler]

46 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Next Update:

My next full weekly report should be on Sunday evening, February 5th.

What a brilliant read Thankyou and plenty to be postitive about . I remember last week you said this weeks post would be a much smaller post lol  you obviously put so much hard work in to your posts . I'm glad it was not a short post . Thanks again .

Edited January 29, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended remains wet and windy

[Paul_1978]

3 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes its the trend that matters at this stage of course, and GEM coming on board is good news.

Really? I thought GEM was a cannon fodder model?

[Snowman.]

18 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Really? I thought GEM was a cannon fodder model?

Support is support.

When models agree on things like this its always good news.

[ArHu3]

31 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Really? I thought GEM was a cannon fodder model?

Gem 12z (and BOM) have been the best models this winter for day 10 for Europe 

See here:

 

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int/w:molcdnv/scores/mean/msl

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z/score=rmsef|domain_name=europe|vstream=wmo_ob|running_mean_window=1|date=201612|

Edited January 29, 2017 by ArHu3

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Gem 12z (and BOM) have been the best models this winter for day 10 for Europe 

See here:

 

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int/w:molcdnv/scores/mean/msl

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z/score=rmsef|domain_name=europe|vstream=wmo_ob|running_mean_window=1|date=201612|

Interesting that the 12z GFS and gem runs are both better 

[bobbydog]

Well i think this winter has shown that computer models are a valuable tool for weather forecasting. They dont build "garden paths" to lead us down. They try to make sense of a chaotic force of nature. The stubborn block to our east is a case in point. Its like trying to predict the individual paths of a flock of sheep. There is a point where we can predict movement but after that its speculation. Personally, i'm disappointed in this winter. It had so much "potential".... but i dont think we can blame anyone's forecasts or any model predictions for the lack of snowy weather for the UK so far. Thats just how it goes. Its not over yet so there could be something to look forward to but hey, its not the end of the world. I really think that the next 2 years or so will bring us a winter to remember....

[blizzard81]

22 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Gem 12z (and BOM) have been the best models this winter for day 10 for Europe 

See here:

 

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int/w:molcdnv/scores/mean/msl

 

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z/score=rmsef|domain_name=europe|vstream=wmo_ob|running_mean_window=1|date=201612|

That doesn't surprise me to be honest. The ecm has been very poor at times this winter. It has been a little like the gfs of old, promising much at the day 9/10 timeframe which came to nothing. Gfs and gem cannot be accused of that this winter.

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That doesn't surprise me to be honest. The ecm has been very poor at times this winter. It has been a little like the gfs of old, promising much at the day 9/10 timeframe which came to nothing. Gfs and gem cannot be accused of that this winter.

Models dont promise anything. See above...

[Daniel*]

58 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Really? I thought GEM was a cannon fodder model?

What's been shared puts that to bed. GEM is a valuable model to have on your side. While ECM has been bullish on amplification, not once has the GEM bought into it.

Which is why GEM 12z has attracted some interest. 

[bluearmy]

The original greeny ridge that failed in December was first shown on a gem run - just saying .................

all op models are generally poor at day 10 

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Models dont promise anything. See above...

I think most on here will get my drift.