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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I don't think it's time to hit the panic button..we have a cold spell in the bag and nobody knows how next week onwards will look with any confidence so just enjoy the very cold Easterly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO extended

    ukm2.2017021312.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

    Snow for the midlands north one would think

    Depends if the cold has hung on

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

    So the models all show a cold east/northeast/southeast flow from wednesday till early next week, then who knows where we go after... also snow chances increasing over weekend with some accumulations possible.

    Capture.thumb.JPG.d35b638b6142e89e16b79b8e671d9caf.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    The ecm op looks to be quite a big upgrade in the short term. Very happy with that.

    Yes I agree, FI is FI and we will have to wait and see but ECM has been upgrading and prolonging the cold spell by a day every day so if it doesn't improve again tomorrow from 144 I might consider it a little more seriously.

    JMA does give it support though so it will be interesting to see how well the Op is represented from day 8 within its ensembles.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    Big up the ECM 120 Greenhithe cold pool !! Yeah !

    IMG_2375.thumb.PNG.8d9702e4ddc8d25056648def5daa135a.PNG

    @chionomaniac

    Yes. And I think my Burgess Hill cold pool is bigger than your Greenhithe one! lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
    15 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

    So the models all show a cold east/northeast/southeast flow from wednesday till early next week, then who knows where we go after... also snow chances increasing over weekend with some accumulations possible.

    Capture.thumb.JPG.d35b638b6142e89e16b79b8e671d9caf.JPG

    I'll take that everyday of the week :)

    Happy with the models today, could potentially be the start of the best cold spell in years. Still think there could be a few upgrades with regards snowfall, often happens in these setups

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Fun fact from another strange looking ECM run in the longer-term: before that malarkey, the long-draw SE upper flow draws in such high uppers because of a foehn effect off the Alps at the border of Italy. Run +144 to +192 and you can really see how the warmer uppers spring up just NW of the mountain range.

    With the surface flow more to the east it's hard to discern whether such a warming effect would be in place for the surface air. Just imagine if we were bathed in air warmed by descent down the slopes of the Alps... that's be an incredible case of irony given how SE flows usually are at this time of year. In any case, at least a brief less cold interlude is looking likely by mid-next week unless a low can develop on the NE flank of the plume exiting Africa in about a week's time.

    ecmt850.168.png

    With the clash of warm and cold air in that area, it seems plausible that such a low could develop. After all, it's how a lot of our summer plumes get broken down prematurely :rolleyes::D

     

    So those later stages of the run... well, at +168 as shown above, you have the polar vortex clearing off to Siberia and a huge cut-off trough in the mid-Atlantic (too huge? Seems a bit much!) which on the face of it is ideal for having a blocking high move from our SE to our NW. Trouble is ECM leaves a shortwave low behind which causes the jet stream, heading NW having curved away from the block over S. Scandinavia, to then curve back north when we'd like it to just continue on NW. 

    Technically it's feasible but it would be against the odds - in light of which its extraordinary that the 12z GFS was along similar lines (but with a shallow low nudging in from the Atlantic early next week which is why it turns mild at the surface so soon. Naughty GFS). At least GFS shows us that cold could quickly return past day 10. ECM would need a day or two longer for things to rearrange sufficiently; it sure does get itself in a right state days 9-10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    Excuse the basic nature of the questioning, but is the basic set up for the weekend coming locked in now? 

    We have the low that moves from Biscay all the way down past Madeira between Friday and Sunday, with the Azores high out halfway to Bermuda. I can't help but think theres more to develop in this respect.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Evening All -

    So another day at the office & finally we are now seeing some indications that the very dry boring Easterly might not be a very dry boring Easterly...

    Modelling today has seen better agreement in the flow becoming ENE across the week courtesy of a developing area of lower heights somewhere close to the E or SE -

    This will enhance the instability for the E & SE but also support the push west of the cold uppers- creating more in the way of snow flurries-

    Its pretty easy to suggest the areas prone to seeing snow - however if I was pressed to pinpoint the region most at risk from 'disruption' It would be Lincs up to tyne & wear - however the models especially the euros that the risk moves further towards the SE fri / sat & early sun...

    The rest of the country is dependent on how much the Easterly onshore flow can project those showers across & again Friday > Saturday looks best with low maxima & solid frosts-

    Detail is a bit sketchy but an area of snow could cross southern areas Sunday - which also may herald milder air from the SE-

    Post 144 the models have 'edged' towards the ever progressive ECM - with the wedge of high pressure from the atlantic following a rainbow shaped journey from the azores via Iceland then on down to scandi - encouraging low heights over spain to lift up Northwards-

    however this by no means a done deal as its theory is based on model assumptions in areas where they have been totally wrong in the last few days

    * The path could be interupted by a shortwave in 'any' location-

    * The SE flow at 144 > 168 could still sharpen up to Easterly - why? The modelling of the Iberian low has been to deep & on the flip side of that the modelling of any italian heights has been to shallow- so the seesaw could swing towards a flatter flow..

    like this

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=1&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

    * The high pressure may stretch/shear east & west rather than just 1 blob-...

    which leads onto the final point.. The greenland high...

    In the timeline about 216-240 we see 'potential' for a sharp rise in pressure over Greenland, remember after research the Greenland high really only develops from 2  regions

    * azores high ridging North 

    * Scandi high angled NW 

    or both- ( Nov 2010 was both ) 

    Ive picked a chart from todays 12z - 

    IMG_2377.thumb.PNG.7e430aa39f5b4e8ec5e0b499ac7d1b9c.PNG

    Note the allignment of the flow is from SE to NW - you have all that energy essentially reversed against the jet & what happens is the jet gets smashed upwards over Greenland - hence greenland high...

    So, in summary tonight- cold from Weds, poss snow in the NE along the stalled front before it fizzles... flurries Thurs in the SE/E& NE- with everything pushing further inland Fri / Sat- .... poss band of snow over the SE > then south / midlands / SW on sun...

    Some accumulations possible...

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Fun fact from another strange looking ECM run in the longer-term: before that malarkey, the long-draw SE upper flow draws in such high uppers because of a foehn effect off the Alps at the border of Italy. Run +144 to +192 and you can really see how the warmer uppers spring up just NW of the mountain range.

    With the surface flow more to the east it's hard to discern whether such a warming effect would be in place for the surface air. Just imagine if we were bathed in air warmed by descent down the slopes of the Alps... that's be an incredible case of irony given how SE flows usually are at this time of year. In any case, at least a brief less cold interlude is looking likely by mid-next week unless a low can develop on the NE flank of the plume exiting Africa in about a week's time.

    ecmt850.168.png

    With the clash of warm and cold air in that area, it seems plausible that such a low could develop. After all, it's how a lot of our summer plumes get broken down prematurely :rolleyes::D

     

    So those later stages of the run... well, at +168 as shown above, you have the polar vortex clearing off to Siberia and a huge cut-off trough in the mid-Atlantic (too huge? Seems a bit much!) which on the face of it is ideal for having a blocking high move from our SE to our NW. Trouble is ECM leaves a shortwave low behind which causes the jet stream, heading NW having curved away from the block over S. Scandinavia, to then curve back north when we'd like it to just continue on NW. 

    Technically it's feasible but it would be against the odds - in light of which its extraordinary that the 12z GFS was along similar lines (but with a shallow low nudging in from the Atlantic early next week which is why it turns mild at the surface so soon. Naughty GFS). At least GFS shows us that cold could quickly return past day 10. ECM would need a day or two longer for things to rearrange sufficiently; it sure does get itself in a right state days 9-10.

    I think even the ECM would get there eventually. I think the easterly and then Greenland heights are two separate evolutions- it's just it had looked initially like we may go seamlessly from one to the other. As often is the case where the UK is concerned, it very rarely pans out like that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    UW144-21.GIF?06-18 gfs-0-144.png?12 gem-0-144.png?12

    Playing a bit of spot the differences here at +144, for the heck of it. Seems GEM just decides to give the deep trough a neutral rather than positive tilt between +120 and the above which allows the block to build more to our NW prior to the transferal of the vortex to Siberia. Meanwhile the low S of the UK is a little further east, which helps keep the high orientated better over the following days.

    UKMO is closest to GEM in terms of positioning of broad scale features, but still different enough that it would likely not play out so wondrously going forward.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    17 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Fun fact from another strange looking ECM run in the longer-term: before that malarkey, the long-draw SE upper flow draws in such high uppers because of a foehn effect off the Alps at the border of Italy. Run +144 to +192 and you can really see how the warmer uppers spring up just NW of the mountain range.

    With the surface flow more to the east it's hard to discern whether such a warming effect would be in place for the surface air. Just imagine if we were bathed in air warmed by descent down the slopes of the Alps... that's be an incredible case of irony given how SE flows usually are at this time of year. In any case, at least a brief less cold interlude is looking likely by mid-next week unless a low can develop on the NE flank of the plume exiting Africa in about a week's time.

    ecmt850.168.png

    With the clash of warm and cold air in that area, it seems plausible that such a low could develop. After all, it's how a lot of our summer plumes get broken down prematurely :rolleyes::D

     

    So those later stages of the run... well, at +168 as shown above, you have the polar vortex clearing off to Siberia and a huge cut-off trough in the mid-Atlantic (too huge? Seems a bit much!) which on the face of it is ideal for having a blocking high move from our SE to our NW. Trouble is ECM leaves a shortwave low behind which causes the jet stream, heading NW having curved away from the block over S. Scandinavia, to then curve back north when we'd like it to just continue on NW. 

    Technically it's feasible but it would be against the odds - in light of which its extraordinary that the 12z GFS was along similar lines (but with a shallow low nudging in from the Atlantic early next week which is why it turns mild at the surface so soon. Naughty GFS). At least GFS shows us that cold could quickly return past day 10. ECM would need a day or two longer for things to rearrange sufficiently; it sure does get itself in a right state days 9-10.

    Give it another couple of runs, a different scenario will probably develop. This idea will go straight out the window probably, depending on the behaviour of that low pressure to the SW and the direction it decides to take over the next couple of days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Give it another couple of runs, a different scenario will probably develop. This idea will go straight out the window probably, depending on the behaviour of that low pressure to the SW and the direction it decides to take over the next couple of days. 

    Absolutely, and I see Steve M has posted some similar ideas with respect to the distribution of low pressure over S. Europe. At the moment it all looks a bit intuitive to me; I can't recall a case in times past when things have panned out as currently being shown from where we look to be this weekend.

    When it comes down to it, I just really enjoy picking apart model runs. I'm probably sub-sane by some people's standards :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    Psssstt......

    The daily ECM 00Z may not have been great but the monthly run from same time frame comes up with goodies. :D

        MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170206_w1.png    MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170206_w2.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    Good analysis and perspective earlier from nick s about the Scandinavian High and energy equation involved in any retrogression signal:)

    I think at this stage there are a few things to state (and in some cases re-emphasise)

    1)  There is a two day lag updating-work-in-progress continuing with the Global Synoptic Dynamical mode (GSDM) which provide us with a highly useful and NWP-pro-active guidance tool to asses how much tropical (MJO) and extra tropical (frictional and mountain torques) will produce a combined amplification wind-flow signal to impact the tropospheric NWP patterns and also poleward propagating mechanisms to further destabilise the polar vortex. 

    The timelines involved in this means that the full effects of the tropical signal in the Pacific will be working their way polewards from tropics to mid and higher latitudes over a period of some days at a time. The signals can be evaluated in advance as to their likely impact on NWP - but full impact assessment is very a much a case of documenting progress daily through AAM total budgets as reflected by the Global Wind Oscillation. In this sense the MJO forecasts are not the whole story - it is the GWO that supplies the full wind signal and determine the hemispheric pattern and degree of meridionality of the jet stream

    We must therefore, very importantly factor this in when assessing NWP  - and one highly good reason amongst others to avoid knee jerk responses to operational (especially) but also some ensemble date suites. This applies tonight as much as the last 10 days which (as far as I am concerned) is when this journey towards a cold spell began amidst suggested long term cyclogenesis. This rationale will also continue to apply, reflecting a highly dynamic evolution with a complexity of timings that imply whatever individual operational roll-outs *might* show, it *should* still be an exciting one too.

    2) Next up, the GSDM aspect has to be considered in tandem with stratospheric developments and the movements of the vortex within the polar field. The GSDM is contributory to this in terms of poleward rossby wave eddies in evidence set to further perturb the vortex, but the maximum damage potential in the form of  cold air advection through strong amplification is made possible by the most 'favourable' destabilisation mode within the vortex itself. There is increasing agreement for the vortex to become resident over Siberia, but there is not (yet) agreement on whether this arises through split or displacement.

    Clearly displacement mode involves momentum transport across the pole and, as nick rightly says, this process comes with greater energy (temporarily) exerted on the Scandinavian block. One more reason to not be surprised by the NWP volatility and differences evident between models and intra day modelling suites.

    Clearly current NWP highlights these energy imbalances - but it is vital that they are captured merely as snapshots in time and neither represent the inevitable, nor are they, as already stressed, a complete picture by any means

    With that in mind, lets look at what we know, which includes todays GSDM updates (remember the two day lag)

    As suggested in yesterdays post update, global atmospheric angular momentum tendency was set to respond sharply. Todays lag to the 4th shows it has rocketed upwards in continued response to the upstream tropical (MJO) signal coming into the Pacific - destined eastwards

    gltend.sig.90day.gif

    But as stated already, the tropical 'engine catalyst' for the amplification signal isn't the complete story. Feedback processes for poleward propagation of amplifying poleward eddies from the tropics to extra tropical mid and higher latitudes occurs over timeline periods. NWP is constantly calculating this evolving process and adjusting. When it involves complex amplification and strong blocking processes such as we currently experience - expect uncertainty and drop in performance - but don't be sad and fitful over less palatable solutions which may be either transitory graemlins :) or phantom model weather watching demons  :wink:

    The Global Wind Oscillation (two day lag once more) has continued etching up in amplitude through Phase 4 (again as suggested yesterday)  as it starts to respond to the rapid rise in angular momentum tendency. 

    gwo_90d.gif

     

    This has implications for global torques moving forward, and the net outcome of amplification in the atmospheric circulation budget will determine the tropospheric response available for cold air advection moving ahead. That is also beyond the easterly.

    The movements within the polar field will clearly either offset or augment this potential depending on displacement or split mechanisms - but make no mistake, a harmonious tropical and extra tropical wind-flow signal cuing up large amplification forcing dovetailing with favourable stratospheric developments could deliver an icing to top the initial Scandinavian cake.

    Don't fret over any suggested pause heading into next week. We cannot yet know all the answers. We can only look around corners available. But the GSDM offers an additional forward insight to where NWP may head.

    Atmospheric circulation and stratospheric caveats aside, this has a long way to go yet and the nice little easterly could conceivably be a precursor to a bigger reload from the arctic to round off official winter 2017.

    Edit: To latest ECM ensemble tweet 'scare'. Yet another snapshot in time which tells a half complete story and doesn't factor in total evolution longer term of pattern which NWP is yet to assimilate. Only yesterday/this morning we heard long term METO prognosis was a cold February...

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    56 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    I don't think it's time to hit the panic button..we have a cold spell in the bag and nobody knows how next week onwards will look with any confidence so just enjoy the very cold Easterly.

    Wasn't it mid Jan recently we had 'HP TO THE EAST OF THE UK' and the models were showing the Atlantic to come flooding in around Sunday Jan 22nd, did it happen.... Nope!!!  

    That week the 26th we had temps at 0c and below during the daytime and the models 7days prior had us for rain, wind and double fig temps :nonono:

    What stopped this.....HP/blocking:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    8 minutes ago, Nouska said:

    Psssstt......

    The daily ECM 00Z may not have been great but the monthly run from same time frame comes up with goodies. :D

     

    Is that January?

    Edit: I see you've changed them - tasty!!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Barn, Kent
  • Location: New Barn, Kent
    11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Evening All -

    So another day at the office & finally we are now seeing some indications that the very dry boring Easterly might not be a very dry boring Easterly...

    Modelling today has seen better agreement in the flow becoming ENE across the week courtesy of a developing area of lower heights somewhere close to the E or SE -

    This will enhance the instability for the E & SE but also support the push west of the cold uppers- creating more in the way of snow flurries-

    Its pretty easy to suggest the areas prone to seeing snow - however if I was pressed to pinpoint the region most at risk from 'disruption' It would be Lincs up to tyne & wear - however the models especially the euros that the risk moves further towards the SE fri / sat & early sun...

    The rest of the country is dependent on how much the Easterly onshore flow can project those showers across & again Friday > Saturday looks best with low maxima & solid frosts-

    Detail is a bit sketchy but an area of snow could cross southern areas Sunday - which also may herald milder air from the SE-

    Post 144 the models have 'edged' towards the ever progressive ECM - with the wedge of high pressure from the atlantic following a rainbow shaped journey from the azores via Iceland then on down to scandi - encouraging low heights over spain to lift up Northwards-

    however this by no means a done deal as its theory is based on model assumptions in areas where they have been totally wrong in the last few days

    * The path could be interupted by a shortwave in 'any' location-

    * The SE flow at 144 > 168 could still sharpen up to Easterly - why? The modelling of the Iberian low has been to deep & on the flip side of that the modelling of any italian heights has been to shallow- so the seesaw could swing towards a flatter flow..

    like this

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=1&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

    * The high pressure may stretch/shear east & west rather than just 1 blob-...

    which leads onto the final point.. The greenland high...

    In the timeline about 216-240 we see 'potential' for a sharp rise in pressure over Greenland, remember after research the Greenland high really only develops from 2  regions

    * azores high ridging North 

    * Scandi high angled NW 

    or both- ( Nov 2010 was both ) 

    Ive picked a chart from todays 12z - 

    IMG_2377.thumb.PNG.7e430aa39f5b4e8ec5e0b499ac7d1b9c.PNG

    Note the allignment of the flow is from SE to NW - you have all that energy essentially reversed against the jet & what happens is the jet gets smashed upwards over Greenland - hence greenland high...

    So, in summary tonight- cold from Weds, poss snow in the NE along the stalled front before it fizzles... flurries Thurs in the SE/E& NE- with everything pushing further inland Fri / Sat- .... poss band of snow over the SE > then south / midlands / SW on sun...

    Some accumulations possible...

    S

    Cheers Steve, some great insight there.

    For us in the SE do you think there's any chance of some sort of streamer setting up going by the current output a la Feb 2009? Some good accumulations here in NW Kent from a streamer off the Thames

    thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    well i must admit after reading the views of people here this morning and getting a little excited, i am now feeling slightly deflated, lol, just trying to get a take on what areas of the uk are going to experience the upcomming chilly/cold spell, from an imby its no snow, no frost and nothing really cold

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    12 minutes ago, cjwardy said:

    Cheers Steve, some great insight there.

    For us in the SE do you think there's any chance of some sort of streamer setting up going by the current output a la Feb 2009? Some good accumulations here in NW Kent from a streamer off the Thames

    thanks

    Just quickly- at this stage thats unlikely ( was 30cm widely ) sub 10cm is the expectation ATM - at least though the flow is slower so PPN will last longer just probably lighter- however lets see how things develop-

    NB heights & how much lower they were

    IMG_2378.thumb.PNG.234f5c77ce61a6d10608d9afea19dbbe.PNG

    best

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    4 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

    well i must admit after reading the views of people here this morning and getting a little excited, i am now feeling slightly deflated, lol, just trying to get a take on what areas of the uk are going to experience the upcomming chilly/cold spell, from an imby its no snow, no frost and nothing really cold

    Sorry  your in a prime position as it currently stands  a stiff easterly showers off the North Sea. Happy days 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Op on the mild side of the EPS again for de bilt, especially at day 10. Also some cold options showing up, 15 day EPS may show this better....

    IMG_4212.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Looking at the ECM ens the peak of the coldest 850's looks to be around this weekend next week sees a slow rise to around +2

    57656867867.png.51abbc419f406eece7fc0577

    ens charts

    Reem722.thumb.gif.660b800efc24107db3f8c0e631d32ba3.gifReem1442.thumb.gif.f823dbda0fa0f98d1362f17c7aeb45c4.gifReem2162.thumb.gif.5c6ed22103a6f15ba1f4cfda3d17dbf3.gifReem2402.thumb.gif.92e817e690abc9cba326f1b0b940fbf4.gif

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