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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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The easterly low is pushing the high from the west a lot further over than it was in the earlier 12z model..

12z

gfs-1-150.png?12

 

18z

gfs-1-144.png?18

 

Those -8 uppers are covering more and more of the uk......much higher snow precipitations too expected.

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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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Let's be brutally honest it's a primarily dry easterly and it is going to take a monumental turnaround for the majority of the country to be anything but that, at least with the first bite of the cherry!

Edited by Weathizard
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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It's definitely squeaky bum time watching the Azores ridge nudging in.....

What it does do is make the ECM solution less far fetched. Let's just hope the ECM doesn't have this nailed and the 18z is as far as we push with the Azores high influence.

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Let's be brutally honest it's a primarily dry easterly and it is going to take a monumental turnaround for the majority of the country to be anything but that, at least with the first bite of the cherry!

Nope - it's still too early to be sure.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Did I mention a stalled upper cold pool earlier... ? Fingers crossed...

 

What does the stalled upper cold pool do for the uk as a positive? Is it just colder and that's that? or does it have better implications down the line?

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Did I mention a stalled upper cold pool earlier... ? Fingers crossed...

IMG_2365.thumb.PNG.5d3e08ccc67881337cd1e80d12397c89.PNG

It is a bit like time has stood still from around T+150 til T+198

Edited by chionomaniac
just increasing the time difference!
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Not sure if this is being overly simplistic, but it looks to me that there is a classic difference between the Europeans and Amerians tonight:

ECM shows the Azores High stretching north east to join with the block to our NE

GFS shows the block to our NE stretching down to the south west to join the Azores High.

 

 

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Completely different jet profile at the tipping point is keeping things decent here. The 18z retains more energy in the northern arm (normally a bad thing, looking like possibly not in this instance) than its 12z counterpart which split off way earlier than the 18z does.

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Time for this to change tbh. small improvements in day 1-5 range but were still looking at more of a MLB in the medium term. Overall a slightly positive day I'd say. Maybe moved from a 4 out of 10 to a 6.

 

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16 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

What does the stalled upper cold pool do for the uk as a positive? Is it just colder and that's that? or does it have better implications down the line?

Like the GEM it can gently keep throwing PPN around the flank into the UK- in the form of continuous snow- however it can also be the precursor of very cold surface temps as skies clear & the air is dead still- we are talking 0MPH ( again very rare )

- depends where it sets up!

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Height's ridging into iceland,could produce another easterly here.

gfs-0-228.png?18

GFS looks like it's going to attempt a northerly here, probably with heights fairly close to out west. 

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