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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

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@Argyle1980 certainly the jet is tracking further south across the Atlantic into SW Europe next week and beyond, but it turns north over or to east of UK, which is not very conducive to any ridge to our N or NE having any influence at keeping the Atlantic lows at bay, as the ridges look to be surface based. Also, there is no SSW at the moment, perhaps close to one end of the month, but may not come off and certainly we are way off the warming working down to the troposphere. So don't think we'll see any drastic changes until sometime in Feb.

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PV not looking quite as strong/formed in FI. At some point over the next few day we "might" start seeing some better FI charts as possible strat warming starts effecting the NH, whilst FI charts aren't to be trusted it will be nice if we see a general mix of ENS will a little PV disturbace going on.  There is also a fair amount of WAA being injected on the Pacific side so it would't take a huge change around Greenland to have some weak split and some blocking occur towards the second week of Feb.

Edited by Ali1977

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@Nick F thank you for your response. I agree with you re SSW but in my mind was thinking if we see such an event come the beginning of the month we could then see greater hights opened up to our north, provided it does work in our favour .

thats where I'm looking right now and with the jet stream trying to dig further south it's a far better direction than full on Atlantic attack.

also keeps things more interesting.

happy trend searching!

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:

@Nick F thank you for your response. I agree with you re SSW but in my mind was thinking if we see such an event come the beginning of the month we could then see greater hights opened up to our north, provided it does work in our favour .

thats where I'm looking right now and with the jet stream trying to dig further south it's a far better direction than full on Atlantic attack.

also keeps things more interesting.

happy trend searching!

 

 

IMO, the downwelling of the strat warming/zonal reversal will be a slow process based on current zonal wind forecasts, so don't expect a quick response in the troposphere if the downwelling occurs. I would be looking at the MJO wave propagation to bring a change to the upper flow pattern that may favour blocking in the meantime, could be in a more favourable phase (7/8) for blocking by 2nd week of Feb.

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48 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:

Still wondering weather we could see pressure rise more to our north/east.

with the low pressure system diving south and east all the time along with the jet stream I think this could be where we start to see somthing develop.

again I don't think anything is set in stone right now and with SSW going on i really don't think we can rule anything out.

change is a foot!  One way or another .

IMG_0968.PNG

IMG_0969.PNG

Totally agree with this comment the jet is not going to rage directly over the top of the UK but instead run south east. Pretty sure this will only help the block push back west with a chance of hight rises to our north east. Those predicting a warm wet February are jumping the gun way to soon. I give it a week of more unsettled weather and it's certainly not going to last for all of February this is by no means a done deal yet.

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Pressure rise pushing east towards Iceland and Greenland is one to watch for sure jet is riding far enough south to allow the height rises. Lows cutting under digging further South through time.

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500mb cold pool moving north out of France this evening/tonight forecast to bring a wintry mix of precipitation, so some in E England could wake up to a dusting on Friday morning, before turning milder during the day as wind veers southerly

gfsgif_500.gifgfsgif_ppn.gif

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Not a bad sasauge to cheer everyone up

GFSP19EU06_384_1.png

GFSP19EU06_384_2.png

Although rank outsiders it has to be said, at least there are some cold runs starting to emerge again in the GEFS 06z a bit more in the nearer time frame this one

GFSP04EU06_132_1.png

Block possibly a tiny bit more resilient?

 

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As I have posted previously, the likelihood of snowfall is inversely proportional to posts showing cold individual ensemble members in this thread !

 

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1 hour ago, Nouska said:

A Bartlett, you say .... "not exactly the same as 1988 version" ..... damned right - nothing at all like the '88 orange monster.

I've never seen a 'blue Bartlett' before ... maybe it's been affected by all the European cold. :cold:

What you are seeing is mostly returning polar maritime air - a Bartlett has very warm upper air, centred over France, and feeds a constant train of tropical maritime air into the UK.

Compare the 18Z animation to a typical Bartlett type chart.

tempresult_fww2.gif    archives-1998-2-12-0-0.png

At the risk of being picky, that's not the 18Z run that I had referred to :oops:. FWIW I'd agree with you based on the 00Z run that you have used, nor did I even say it would happen.

Additionally, there is NO definition in meteorology of what constitutes a Bartlett so I can't really be wrong can I? For me, its the persistence of the pattern not the individual chart.  I can and do accept that others have different views though so as I said last night lets just agree to disagree otherwise its just point scoring.  

Edit: I'm looking forward to the upcoming 'sausage' analysis now Purga has quoted that :rofl:

 

Edited by Jason M
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Regarding tomorrow Arpege also show some rain and snow getting into the se. Nothing heavy but might give a dusting before less cold conditions move in. The Euro 4 less interested and just brings in some rain.

Tomorrows UKMO fax chart for 0600hrs shows a trough close to the se:

fax24s.gif

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Every GFS run everything seems to get pushed ever so slightly west if this keeps happening then you never know might allow heights to rise even more to the north to get the undercut that we need around day 5.

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Every GFS run everything seems to get pushed ever so slightly west if this keeps happening then you never know might allow heights to rise even more to the north to get the undercut that we need around day 5.

Yes, there has been a trend to edge west. Has been noted in the mid term as well as short term, be interesting to see how it progresses over next couple of runs.

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3 hours ago, Nick F said:

500mb cold pool moving north out of France this evening/tonight forecast to bring a wintry mix of precipitation, so some in E England could wake up to a dusting on Friday morning, before turning milder during the day as wind veers southerly

gfsgif_500.gifgfsgif_ppn.gif

Hi Nick

I'd be really interested in your opinion on this.  Taking my location as an example, the GFS is showing a max of 6C tomorrow and the Met is saying much the same.  This seems to me to be a huge uptick compared to, er, -1C or so today.  I know that we can get rapid uplifts of temperature, but I'd expect that kind of lift to be associated with an Atlantic front introducing much milder air.  That is not happening (as yet).  The change tomorrow is a subtle shift in wind direction to emanating from more central France rather than central Europe.  My conclusion: it will be milder tomorrow but not as much as the models are saying.

Do you agree, or is there something I am missing as to the reason why there will be such a significant change in surface temp between today and tomorrow?

Thanks in advance, WB

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The normally flat-as-a-pancake GEM almost creates a scandi high starting at 120h, interesting to see what ECWMF will do

 

gemnh-0-150.png?12

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1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

The normally flat-as-a-pancake GEM almost creates a scandi high starting at 120h, interesting to see what ECWMF will do

 

gemnh-0-150.png?12

Jet is powering away to the south to.

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48 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Hi Nick

I'd be really interested in your opinion on this.  Taking my location as an example, the GFS is showing a max of 6C tomorrow and the Met is saying much the same.  This seems to me to be a huge uptick compared to, er, -1C or so today.  I know that we can get rapid uplifts of temperature, but I'd expect that kind of lift to be associated with an Atlantic front introducing much milder air.  That is not happening (as yet).  The change tomorrow is a subtle shift in wind direction to emanating from more central France rather than central Europe.  My conclusion: it will be milder tomorrow but not as much as the models are saying.

Do you agree, or is there something I am missing as to the reason why there will be such a significant change in surface temp between today and tomorrow?

Thanks in advance, WB

Could be right that it won't turn out as mild as forecast by GFS/MetO, afterall, they were predicting 5C for today in London a few days ago, then 3C today, but it has barely got above freezing. Having said that, as the wind veers southerly tomorrow, the source area of the wind coming up is southern France / northern Spain - though I question how quickly this milder air will get here.

Anyway, an ice day for many in England today, not often we get those, certainly not since 2010 anyway. Some wintry showers for some in the east tonight could give a dusting too. But maybe this more to talk about in the regionals!

 

Edited by Nick F
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3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

The normally flat-as-a-pancake GEM almost creates a scandi high starting at 120h, interesting to see what ECWMF will do

 

gemnh-0-150.png?12

Just about to post that we are due an ecm special tonight :)

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This looks a decent chart, massive ridge of WAA getting quite high towards the pole on the Pacific/Alaskan side, and weakened PV around Greenland and NE Canada, and Jet well South too. A blast of WAA near Labrador from here and you'd get the split allowing all the cold air in Siberia to head SW. 

Prob won't come to much but it's not a full on Zonal fest.

Edit - and as expected didn't happen, and with nothing on the METO long range suggesting anything blocked or cold I doubt it will. 

IMG_4077.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Could be right that it won't turn out as mild as forecast by GFS/MetO, afterall, they were predicting 5C for today in London a few days ago, then 3C today, but it has barely got above freezing. Having said that, as the wind veers southerly tomorrow, the source area of the wind coming up is southern France / northern Spain - though I question how quickly this milder air will get here.

Anyway, an ice day for many in England today, not often we get those, certainly not since 2010 anyway. Some wintry showers for some in the east tonight could give a dusting too. But maybe this more to talk about in the regionals!

 

This is a good point. I don't remember a high of -2C in South East (which we've seen in Southend) being forecast for today at the beginning of the week!

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GFS 12z continues to take us loco-zonal next week with the lows never really making into continental europe - thanks to the blocking high - not great for us tbh

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Still a chance of a cold end to Winter, hard to forecast at this stage though I'm sure -  lets hope we get some luck.

IMG_4079.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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